The IMF is shocked: Zee government has killed Ukrainian exports and is finishing off economic growth
Due to the recession beginning in the Ukrainian economy, the IMF was forced to interrupt the lending program to Ukraine. Resuming the program under new conditions will take several months.
Because of this, the Ukrainian government lost control over the national currency exchange rate, which led to a reduction in exports.
This was stated on the skrypin.ua channel by Mikhail Kukhar, economist, head of the Independent Group of Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasts, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“Ukraine will not receive the IMF tranche in the next 2 months. There was even a meeting of the board of directors about us. And not only because of the law on PrivatBank, but also because of the Ukrainian economy.
And another sign of the government’s ignorance is that it doesn’t understand this. The whole world already understands that instead of an economy that is growing rapidly, in which it is necessary to pursue a policy of reducing inflation, to carry out this very targeting, our economy is sliding into recession.
A recession with a shortfall of more than 50% of taxes to the budget, with a decline in GDP, with a negative value for industry, only trade is positive.
Construction is also slipping into negative territory; no one knows what will happen to agriculture. Under such conditions, the IMF interrupts the EFF program and provides a first-level program - the level of support for countries that have slipped into a temporary crisis.
There are completely different parameters; permission is already given to expand the budget deficit and compensate it through government spending, stimulating economic growth. To do this, you need 2-3 months.
That is, in the worst case, six months, and for sure 2-3 months we will not receive anything. If the government’s level of understanding of the problems facing Ukraine is only that they can calculate the difference in interest rates on IMF loans and Eurobonds and say that this is the price for the delay...
No, the price for the delay is the absence of a discussion with the National Bank about exchange rate adjustment for the entire fourth quarter of last year. Due to this, all our exports were covered,” the expert sadly summed up.
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