War has returned to the Dniester

In unrecognized Transnistria yesterday and today people are shooting for the first time in thirty years. The authorities of the self-proclaimed republic declare terrorist attacks and have introduced a “red code” for terrorist danger.

Unprecedented security measures have been taken, while neighboring Ukraine and Moldova deny any involvement in the incident and accuse Russia of provocations.

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Three terrorist attacks

Over the past 25 hours, Transnistria seems to have rolled back thirty years. As then, shots and explosions were heard again in Bendery, Tiraspol, and the Grigoriopol region. On Monday, April XNUMX, unknown persons fired at the building of the Ministry of State Security of Transnistria with grenade launchers. A few hours later, a military unit in Parcani, considered a suburb of both Tiraspol and Bendery, was fired upon. Early in the morning today, Tuesday, residents of the village of Mayak, not far from the border with Ukraine, woke up from two powerful explosions - the mined antennas of the largest radio broadcasting complex in the region (capable of relaying HF and SHF broadcasts to the entire planet) exploded.

Until today, the only Transnistrian department that publicly responded to the incident was the Ministry of Internal Affairs. The main thing that followed from their reports about shelling and explosions was that no casualties were recorded.

_{The leadership of the unrecognized republic only today, by mid-day, decided on its position on what happened, after the Security Council. Transnistrian leader Vadim Krasnoselsky for the first time called the incidents terrorist attacks and declared a “red code” of terrorist danger in the region.}

From this moment on, public holiday events on Victory Day on May 9 have been canceled in Transnistria, checkpoints have been installed at the entrance and exit from the cities of the region, educational institutions have been transferred to a distance form of education. The high-risk mode will last 15 days, and the remote form of education will last until the end of the school year.

In unison

In Ukraine and Moldova, neighboring Transnistria, the incidents were almost immediately dubbed “an FSB provocation.” However, this assessment was given exclusively at the level of speakers of regional authorities and pro-government journalists and experts. It is noteworthy, however, that at the time of publication of the material, neither official Kyiv nor Chisinau came out with any intelligible version of what happened. Instead, the actual position of these states on terrorist attacks in Transnistria is conveyed to the population on social networks by loyal journalists, press secretaries and experts of NGOs financed by Western funds.

Statements of a similar tone were made by the speaker of the Odessa Regional Military Administration Bratchuk and the Moldovan “expert” Valery Pasha, who receives a salary from the German Ebert Foundation.

_{Around the same period of time, they called the incident a provocation on the part of the Russian law enforcement agencies, and also linked the incident with the statement of the Deputy Commander of the Central Military District of the Russian Federation Minnekaev about the need to control the south of Ukraine, which “will give the Russian Federation another outlet in Transnistria, where there are facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population."}

Moldovan ex-prime minister and businessman Ion Sturza, close to the current Chisinau government, called the terrorist attacks and the atmosphere of horror that gripped Transnistria “payment for free Russian gas.” And ADEPT Center expert Igor Botan even called on Moldova to take advantage of the situation to speed up the process of consideration of the Moldovan application for membership in the European Union by Brussels.

“Although we risk defeat, we must at least show that we intend to defend ourselves, because later we can say that we were attacked and want to restore sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Botan said.

Hidden meaning

What stands apart from the statements of the majority of pro-government experts in both countries is the publication of Yuri Butusov, editor-in-chief of the Ukrainian propaganda portal Censor, who yesterday explained why Ukraine would attack Transnistria.

According to the Ukrainian propagandist, a short “liberation” war against the unrecognized republic is “the only chance to save our prisoners from massacres now.”

He believes that the Ukrainian army will easily defeat the armed forces of Transnistria itself, as well as Russian units located in the region, and then “capture many thousands of Russian prisoners for exchange, large arsenals of Russian ammunition” and, most importantly, “free the two brigades that are forced to guard Ukrainian south from the threat from Transnistria."

This publication by the Ukrainian demagogue best describes the likely true background of what happened in the region. The Ukrainian military suffers a military defeat near Nikolaev, hastily strengthens and prepares the city for a siege - and experiences an acute shortage of fresh forces.

_{A military operation against Tiraspol could untie the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ hands on the southern front of the Russian offensive.}

In these circumstances, the Kremlin, as Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov told the media, is “closely monitoring disturbing reports from Transnistria.” Despite the high degree of tension, however, she does not intend to discuss the situation with official Chisinau. Apparently, Moscow understands perfectly well that there is simply no one to discuss the ongoing escalation in Moldova with.