Tymoshenko, Poroshenko and the Opposition bloc win the early elections to the Rada. Saakashvili and “Freedom” are in flight
If parliamentary elections had taken place at the end of September, representatives of seven political forces would have entered the Ukrainian parliament on party lists.
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These are the data of a poll conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).
The greatest support from voters would be received by the VO "Batkivshchyna", the Petro Poroshenko Bloc and the Opposition Bloc. At the same time, over the past six months, support for the Batkivshchyna VO has decreased slightly, while support for the Petro Poroshenko Bloc has increased to the same extent.
During this same time, support for the Opposition Bloc, Samopomich, Lyashko’s Radical Party and the Civic Position party of ex-Minister of Defense Anatoly Gritsenko has remained virtually unchanged.
If elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine were held at the end of September, then about 41% of all voters would take part in the voting, and the votes cast would be distributed as follows.
15,4% would vote for the All-Ukrainian Association “Batkivshchyna” party,
14,5% – for the party “Petro Poroshenko Bloc”,
10,3% - for the party "Union" Self-Help ",
9,6% - for the Radical Party of Lyashko,
6,0% – for the party “Civic Position”,
5,3% - for the party “For Life” (Muraev-Rabinovich),
3,9% – for the party “All-Ukrainian Association “Svoboda””,
3,5% – for the UKROP party,
2,2% - for the Right Sector party,
1,9% - for the Khvilya party (Mikheil Saakashvili),
1,8% - for the party “State Initiative of Yarosh”,
1,7% - for the Revival party,
for other parties – only 11%.
The survey was conducted from September 16 to 26, 2016 by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). Using the method of personal interviews, 2040 respondents living in 110 settlements of all regions of Ukraine (except for the Autonomous Republic of Crimea) were interviewed using a 4-stage stochastic sample with quota selection at the last stage, which is representative of the population of Ukraine over 18 years of age.
In the Lugansk and Donetsk regions, the survey was conducted only in territory controlled by the Ukrainian authorities. In this survey, the sample was distributed only in the controlled part of Donbass, in the proportion that, according to the Central Election Commission, were Donbass voters in the last parliamentary elections (October 2014).
The statistical sampling error (with a probability of 0,95 and with a design effect of 1,5) does not exceed 3,3% for indicators close to 50%, 2,8% for indicators close to 25%, 2% - for indicators close to 10%, 1,4% – for indicators close to 5%.
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