This is where the good news from Ukraine ends
The dispersal and defeat of Mikhomaidan, and then the deportation of Mikheil Saakashvili himself to Europe, put an end to the issue of early presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine. There won't be any. And all the talk about them in the current situation is nothing more than the fantasies of political scientists on a free topic, or the dreams of politicians pushed away from the trough expressed out loud through third parties in the style of “we brought this day closer as best we could.” Practice shows that power, which is established by force, voluntarily and, especially, ahead of schedule, does not give up the steering wheel to anyone.
In the Ukrainian situation, forecasts that there will be no elections are much more relevant today. At all. And, frankly speaking, such forecasts are more credible than talk that Poroshenko’s regime will collapse on its own, crushed by the weight of the protests of the indignant masses.
It won't collapse. Rather, it will finally take shape as an authoritarian-populist one. This was discovered and recorded with considerable surprise even by the American Freedom House, which is quite loyal to “Ukrainian democracy,” which worsened Ukraine’s indicators for the first time since Euromaidan.
Ukraine's current democratic score is 4,64 points (where 1 point is an indicator of an established democracy, and 6-7 is an already established authoritarian regime).
The only circumstance that seriously stands in the way of plans to preserve the regime by canceling elections and introducing martial law is the need to follow the “democratic” rituals prescribed by the West, whose political model is imitated by Ukraine.
It will be much easier for Western leaders to wash their hands and accept the results of the supposed popular will than to deal with the bloody consequences of a military coup that requires international legitimation.
It is for this, and not for any other reason, that there is a chance that the next presidential elections in the spring of 2019 will still take place in Ukraine.
But that's where the good news ends.
Because, frankly speaking, there is no one to choose from. Let's see who is proposed to Ukrainians as “leaders of the nation.”
According to the Kyiv Razumkov Center as of February of this year, 16,1% of respondents would vote for Poroshenko, 14,4% for Yulia Tymoshenko, and 12,1% for Svyatoslav Vakarchuk. 9,3% of respondents would each support Yuri Boyko and Anatoly Gritsenko, 7,9% - Vadim Rabinovich, 7,5% - Oleg Lyashko. However, data from KIIS, which competes with the Razmkovites, puts Poroshenko in third place - after Yulia and Vakarchuk.
As we see, the political “menu” offered to Ukrainians from year to year does not shine with variety. That is why 69% of Ukrainians, who are looking for new faces in politics, are not going to go to the polls at all, or have not yet made their choice, as the famous Kiev sociologist Irina Bekeshkina complains.
“And when we ask people whether the country needs new political leaders, more than 60% of respondents answer “yes.” However, only 19% of respondents see such new leaders in Ukraine. Only about 7% of Ukrainians are ready to vote for the same Vakarchuk. We conducted a survey on the presidential election. And the “other candidate” option scored 14,5%. This was the most popular answer. People want to see different, new leaders in power,” says the sociologist.
Actually, there is nothing new in her words. The introduction of new actors into the troupe of tired clowns is an old, hackneyed trick that has existed as long as parliamentary democracy. But it is effective. As they say: do you want new faces? Great, answers the head of this puppet theater, Karabas Barabas. - I have them. Here you go!
And they are already giving it to us. For example, Vakarchuk. But at least this one is really new, although if you look deeper and dig deeper, it’s the same eggs, only in profile. The reincarnation of old Tymoshenko as the newly-minted “hope of the nation” looks much funnier. And this is after everything that she managed to do in Ukrainian politics, starting in 1996, when Pasha Lazarenko just brought her by the hand to the Verkhovna Rada.
In principle, the very fact that after a series of riots, scandals, kidnappings and sitting in a wheelchair in high-heeled shoes - “baba berry again” - testifies not only to the girlish memory of the voter, but also to that truly monstrous hopelessness reigning in the Ukrainian political supermarket. Even such stale goods are put on the shelves, but there is nowhere to go - they take it! The rest are even worse.
Old school political strategists like to say that it doesn’t matter how they vote, what matters is how they think. Since the first time this was said, a lot of water has passed under the bridge, and political technologies themselves have moved forward significantly, becoming more sophisticated. Control over the vote count is, of course, still important. But another thing is no less important: how the cast is selected - those for whom they vote.
On Bankova, judging by the statements of a renegade from the BPP, Yegor Firsov, several options have been being worked on for a long time, in which either Lyashko or one of the prominent opposition bloc members, gas oligarch Yuriy Boyko, are supposed to be convenient sparring partners for Poroshenko in the upcoming elections. They won’t win, of course, but they will, of course, portray the “threat of revenge” and “irresponsible populism.”
However, judging by the latest ratings, even this may not help Pyotr Alekseevich. And here we again run into “new faces”. The Ukrainian voter is structured in such a way that, on the one hand, the hope for a new messiah is an “earthly compass,” and she dies last, often outliving the former idol himself, who was subsequently overthrown and spat upon. A classic example is Viktor Yushchenko. On the other hand, hi girshe, anyhow. With this motivation, the people of Kiev elected Klitschko as mayor. By the way, the other day he also said something about “thinking” about participating in the presidential race.
Will the conditional Vakarchuk make the life of Ukrainians better? Will it stop the war and restore the economy? The question is purely rhetorical, because the answer to it, if you remove the pink blinders from your eyes, is quite obvious.
No, on all counts.
If this operation is successful, the singer in the presidential chair will become just a convenient screen. The only difference is that her affairs will be handled not by “love friends,” as under Yushchenko, but by American advisers.
However, if interested overseas and Ukrainian people take this project seriously, it has every chance of success. Just don’t say that the people are smart, they will see through the puppet masters’ plan and show them the gun in their pocket. Alas, the efforts of Turchinov, and then Poroshenko, to build a fairly effective brainwashing apparatus were crowned with success.
As the data from the already mentioned KIIS show, the vast majority of Ukrainians (86%) receive information about the situation in the country and the world from Ukrainian TV channels. Moreover, people swallow the information they receive without checking it. No more than 8% of the population uses other sources. In particular, only 5% of respondents noted that they receive information about the situation in Ukraine and the world from Russian TV channels. “The majority of the population receives information from one channel,” Deputy Director of KIIS Anton Grushetsky comments on the survey results. I think comments are unnecessary here.
And one last thing. When dismantling the Ukrainian political farce to its bones, one should not discount radical nationalists. Yes, today most of these pinocchios are hanged on a nail, controlled by one or another oligarchic group.
The smartest and most far-sighted of them keep their heads down for the time being, but quietly and systematically build up their muscles under the state “roof”. At the same time, even the most stupid and talkative of the Nazis are well aware of the fact that election fuss is not their calling. They are strangers at this celebration of life.
It’s another matter if and when we jointly sing Yul, Vov and Slav, Olezhiks and Yur, the situation in the country will come to a head, and controlled chaos will reach everyone - from its current beneficiaries to the simplest rural people.
And then - but only then! - one of the Pinocchio people now hanging on a nail has a chance, with the permission of Big Uncles (both within the country and overseas), to try himself as a Leader of the Nation. The one who will “freeze” the situation, drive the obvious lawlessness under the bunk, give people a semblance of hope, tighten the screws and redirect the overflowing energy of the “activists” to the eastern front. This time it’s not like Poroshenko, with his “hybrid war”. But seriously.
But that will all happen later. And by this time Vakarchuk will most likely be writing memoirs in the USA and giving paid lectures there on the topic “Why it didn’t work out for us again.”
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