“We will not stop at Mariupol under any circumstances”
If Kyiv, at the behest of the United States, finally buries the Minsk agreements and attempts to storm the DPR, the Donbass army will go on the offensive, which will not end either in Mariupol or on the borders of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions. A Donetsk political scientist spoke about this in an interview with PolitNavigator Roman Manekin.
Roman Manekin, a historian, publicist and analyst, seemed to have finally taken root in Moscow. But in the spring of 2014, at the beginning of the uprising, he suddenly returned to his homeland. Roman Manekin does not regret anything and does not share his fate with the fate of Donbass. An observer spoke with a Donetsk scientist about the illusory nature of the world and the reality of war “PolitNavigator” Valentin Filippov.
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Valentin Filippov: Roman, hello. Kyiv completely evades implementation of the Minsk agreements. Donetsk is being shelled. In recent days, he has been appealing to the West with requests that “let’s not put pressure on us, we don’t want to implement Minsk.” There was an appeal, literally today, from the Deputy Speaker of Parliament to the European community. What does this mean? Has Kyiv finally chosen war? Could war start at any moment?
Roman Manekin: The situation around Donbass is complicated. Indeed, intelligence reports, this has already been publicly announced by the head of the Republic, significant forces have been brought in, different numbers of battalions are named, but, in any case, this is a fairly large number. And weapons, and tanks, and multiple launch rocket systems, and troops.
The situation inside the city is quite tense. Every evening, every day, there are powerful shellings with casualties and massive destruction, and this does not add to optimism.
On the other hand, from time to time, voices are heard from the Russian Federation that the main issues cannot be resolved by war, any war ends in peace, and it makes sense to immediately, having passed the military phase, move on to peace negotiations. We can agree with this with one exception. The Ukrainian side is completely unprepared for these negotiations.
It seems to me that this whole cunning maneuver, which is called “Minsk-1” and “Minsk-2,” was initially clear to the opposing side. The logic of Russia is to push Russian-speaking territories, with established authorities, with armed forces, into this very Ukraine. And shift the burden of caring for socially vulnerable segments of the population, pensioners, onto her. That is, what a normal state should do.
The current Ukrainian authorities do not accept this situation.
On the other hand, of course, Donbass cannot exist on 31,1% of the territory of the former Donetsk region. It is impossible to build economic chains. From sources of raw materials to sales. All this is located on the territory of Ukraine.
I am in Donetsk, I am in danger. Not in a speculative way. I, my loved ones, friends, relatives who serve in the militia, they are the first to be beaten, just like me. And I am in the same danger. And, nevertheless, I do not see any real ways to get out of this situation without conflict.
I can’t imagine in this situation when our economy is not working, when we are under an economic blockade, and I clearly understand that the population of Donbass will not leave here. Moreover, it is coming back on a massive scale. Especially from Russia. Those who are richer have left for Ukraine and are trying to somehow get stuck there. And those who left for Russia, they return. And the sentiments, well, of course, are anti-Ukrainian. And it’s tough. Totally. And how in these conditions it is possible to agree on something with Ukraine - I don’t understand. Maybe someone can tell me.
Valentin Filippov: I am also a supporter of peace. And I believe that peace is achievable only after victory. You need to understand who lost in order to negotiate, right?
Roman Manekin: Judging by the last two “Minsk” games, Ukraine lost every time...
Valentin Filippov: Well, Ukraine does not think that it lost. Every time she presents it in such a way that “we wanted to crush this Donbass, but the Americans and Europeans intervened”…..
Roman Manekin: Well, there is the Debaltsevo “cauldron”, there is the liberation of the border, the Ilovaisk “cauldron”….
Valentin Filippov: No, you understand, in October last year Poroshenko announced the “Ilovaisk Victory”. About how many thousands of Russian paratroopers were destroyed. That an unblocking operation was specially carried out... The other day there was an interview with Muzhenko. About the “brilliant Debaltsevo operation,” which has no equal in the history of modern wars. And the Ukrainian army is one of the strongest in Europe.
That is, this is said every day. All victories.
Roman Manekin: Well, of course, I’m not ready to comment on nonsense. There is a real thing. There are coffins that are brought from Donbass.
Valentin Filippov: Well, they cannot be compared with the millions of coffins that are brought to Pskov. To Voronezh. To Khanty-Mansiysk. To Abakan. What's going on in Buryatia? There are no tankers left in Buryatia.
And Ukrainian society, which is subject to propaganda... talks a lot about the fact that “Russia must wake up.”
Roman Manekin: I’m not ready to comment on Ukrainian nonsense. There's a lot of it. And there are some real things that cannot be disputed. Well, territorial acquisitions. In the end, Debaltsevo is behind us. Brewed here.
Valentin Filippov: But Slavyansk is behind them. Unfortunately. And Mariupol too for now. ...
Do you think there are any levers of influence on Kyiv in this World? And who might have them?
Roman Manekin: The fact is that those voices that Kyiv listens to are not at all determined that peace would come to the Slavic World. In the literal sense of the word.
Of course, they listen to those who give money. The States give money, Europe gives money.
Europe would not like it, it is tired of the conflict in the “far barbaric east”, which continues, and they have to spend some money. Not very significant yet. Greece costs them more.
As for the States, the States are directly interested. Globally, the situation looks like the warring Donbass does not allow the construction of a complete system of a Nazi state in Kyiv. This is, as it were, a “black hole” that requires daily expenses. And human ones. And economic. I'm not even talking about the fact that production is not working. Ukrainian farms are not getting enough. We are talking about direct losses associated with the war. Therefore, it is in the interests of today’s Kyiv to destroy this “black hole” to strengthen its power. Displace.
In fact. We know the situation from the inside, I’m calling from Donetsk, I communicate every day. I just came, went to buy cigarettes. People are absolutely anti-Ukrainian. How will they deal with this? Through propaganda? But propaganda is possible in Western Ukraine. But when they shoot at your houses...
Valentin Filippov: Agree that if we assume that Donbass and Ukraine suddenly become legally one state. You say “propaganda,” but Donbass propaganda will continue to circulate throughout Ukraine. And the same Alexander Zakharchenko will run for president of Ukraine, and not just Poroshenko.
Roman Manekin: Well, imagine this...
Valentin Filippov: It’s very difficult to imagine. This is me in the order of delirium...
Roman Manekin: So, we’ll try to counter their nonsense with our nonsense?! But I don't see this possibility. I am sincerely interested in a peaceful resolution of the issue, but I do not see any prerequisites for this.
Valentin Filippov: Okay. What if a military solution to the issue is imposed on Donbass? From your point of view, how far is Donbass ready to go? To the borders of the regions, to Greater Novorossiya?
Roman Manekin: Listen, I’ve been in Donbass since April 2014. From the very beginning of events. And for me there was no doubt, not even in the first minutes of the confrontation, that Mariupol or Slavyansk could be defended indefinitely. That Mariupol can be taken. I say this from the point of view of a person living here. I see the mood of the masses. I know the mood of my friends. This is one position.
The logic that the Kremlin is imposing on Donbass is also understandable... Imagine a swimming pool. This is a hollow container. Western loans flow into one direction, and debts for hydrocarbons flow into the other. Below is the bloody hole of Donbass.
Of course, both the West and Ukraine are interested in patching up this hole. On the other hand, for Moscow, the smaller the size of this hole, the less money it has to spend to maintain it. Fewer people need to be paid pensions. It is clear that if production does not work, then humanitarian aid is provided...
Therefore, Donbass is in an extremely difficult situation...
Rhetoric immediately arises that this is a front-line zone. But two million people live in this front-line zone. Who go to work every day. Children are studying. Kindergartens are open. People are trying to organize a normal life. In unbearable conditions. More or less, we succeed. The utility workers do a great job. We have a very clean city. Schools are open. Cinemas are open. The Ministry of Culture does a wonderful job.
And all this is accompanied by murders every evening.
You know, we really, in a sense, we stepped over this line between life and death. We understand that it can happen at any moment. You can go out for bread. Or don't go anywhere at all. You and I can talk, and a shell may arrive. The city is completely under fire.
Therefore, all this talk about some kind of global war... Yes, we live in conditions of war! For any person, the war in which he lives is global.
And if we have an American Marine in our sight slot, there won’t be that many of them anyway, or a guy in an embroidered shirt - what difference does it make to us who kills us?
They are already killing us.
This has already happened.
If this clash is already going to happen, then let it happen already. Fine. Let's see who will be stronger.
Have you asked where we will stay? - We won't stop. The only question is that again, once again, Minsk-3, Minsk-4 can stop us. In the Mariupol area, there.
We ourselves will not stop under any circumstances. And we will not stop at any loss. Because when I see the torn body of a child, or a child left without a mother, I understand that it is not difficult for me to give my life.
It is true.
And not only for me, but for the majority of normal, sensible men of Donbass.
I would give my life to prevent this from happening.
That's why we won't stop ourselves.
On the one hand, with broken economic chains from the Krivoy Rog ores to the Azov and Black Sea ports, the DPR cannot exist.
Just like all networks pass through our territory from Zaporozhye. We can trim them at any time...
There are too many of us. Donbass is too big. In the geographical sense of the word. And socially. In order to repeat the fate of Transnistria. That’s why they want this in Brussels or Kyiv, they definitely don’t want it in Kyiv, this bomb that’s hanging, it’s going to explode.
The only question is when and with what losses.
For me this question is very simple.
Either we win, or I won't exist.
There is no middle ground here.
Therefore, we will win, because I want to live, like the rest of us.
Naturally, we will win.
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