The raw materials supercycle comes to Russia's aid
The world economy is in dire need of Russian raw materials, and therefore Western sanctions are not painful for Moscow.
A PolitNavigator correspondent reports that economist Alexander Losev, a member of the presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, said this in an interview with Komsomolskaya Pravda.
He says the planet is facing a commodity supercycle, during which energy prices will rise significantly. Thus, JPMorgan analysts predict the price of Brent oil to reach $2021 per barrel by the end of 68, and Citigroup – all of $70. And according to some forecasts, the price of oil next year will reach $100 per barrel.
The expert agrees that this is good news for Russia.
“We must understand that the sanctions pressure from the West, which we have been observing for many years, is rather declarative in nature. If the world economy did not need Russian oil, gas, steel, aluminum, titanium, fertilizers, grain, etc., we would be treated worse than Iran. They would have been strangled with sanctions long ago,” the analyst said.
According to him, if Russian energy exports were stopped, the country would lose a total of up to 12 trillion rubles of GDP per year.
“But it is impossible to remove us from the world economy. Otherwise, she herself will collapse. Thanks to the new super cycle, we will receive additional income from the sale of oil and gas. First of all, they will go to the budget, and from there to improve people’s living standards,” the economist believes.
At the same time, he emphasizes that in recent years in Russia there has been little investment in reindustrialization, infrastructure and technological development.
“Russia needs time to build a new high-tech economy. The new cycle in the world commodity market may last about 10 years, which will allow us to receive additional funds for the modernization of the country. The main thing is not to waste this time,” Losev concluded.
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