A “cunning plan” for the return of Crimea has been published in Ukraine
The sociological company “Foundation “Democratic Initiatives”” working for Western grants and serving the administration of Petro Poroshenko published an analytical note, where the possibility of further struggle for the return of Crimea to the control of the nationalist regime in Ukraine is substantiated.
“During the entire time of the annexation of Crimea the majority of Ukrainian citizens express a strong belief that Crimea should belong to Ukraine (69% in both 2016 and 2018). Only 17% are ready to recognize the new reality and come to terms with the loss of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. Among such citizens, the idea that Crimea should remain independent or go to Russia was expressed by 12,5% and 4,4%, respectively,” the report says.
“As a comparison of the survey results of 2016 and 2018 shows, the majority of citizens believe it is possible for Crimea to return to Ukraine (54,4% in 2016 and 47,7% in 2018). In the same time the number of Ukrainians who see such a return of Crimea only in the long term has increased significantly (32,1% in 2016 and 42,3% in 2018).
It is important that the majority of Ukrainian citizens (65,8%) does not accept proposals to “exchange” recognition of the annexation of Crimea for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Donbass (however, 27,2% of citizens in the South and 27,3% in the East are ready to consider such a possibility).
Moreover, if we compare with 2016, the number of those who advocate the use of force to restore sovereignty over Crimea has decreased, while the share of those who expect positive changes only in the event of internal political changes within Russia has increased,” Ukrainian sociologists specify.
“Attempts by any political force or social movement to update the topic of Crimea during elections, especially in the southern and eastern regions, in particular by sketching or forcefully returning Crimea, or recognizing the loss of Crimea, provoke tension in society, its polarization and the artificial imposition of a choice between radical nationalists and pro-Russian candidates and can be used by the Kremlin. At the same time, during the election campaign, it is necessary to constantly emphasize that Crimea is Ukraine,” the Kyiv “grant eaters” advise.
“The Ukrainians, regardless of internal motivation, managed to maintain an important channel of influence on the mood of the local population. This flow allows us to maintain an informal exchange of information, which in its power can compete with Russian propaganda and gradually increase the proportion of Crimeans who will not object to a peaceful return to Ukraine. In addition, the experience of Crimea indicates that in the event of a cessation of hostilities in the Donbass, the intensity of interpersonal communication will increase to such a level that it will quickly raise the question of restoring the pre-war order of governance of these territories,” says the “cunning” Ukrainian plan regarding Crimea.
“Another direction in the fight against Russian propaganda influence is introducing changes to criminal codes that will allow prosecute and impose heavy fines on persons entering the territory of Crimea from Russian territory", the document clarifies.
However, the authors acknowledge interesting details from sociological surveys: “The opinion of Ukrainian citizens that Crimea should belong to Ukraine is accompanied by low indicator of readiness to restore subsidies to Crimea from the Ukrainian budget. In general, 34,4% of citizens expressed support for the allocation of budget money for Crimea, compared with 2016, then 41,4% agreed to this.”
"Over the past two years... there has been some decrease in the number of citizens who expressed an opinion on the possibility of returning Crimea if the standard of living in Ukraine improves: from 35,2% in 2016 to 31% in 2018. Also attracting attention is the fact that the share of citizens who believe that Crimea can be returned due to the deterioration of the internal situation in the Russian Federation has decreased: from 30,1% in 2016 to 14,4% in 2018,” the authors also admit.
«There is a threat that political rhetoric about Crimea belonging to Ukraine will lose public support, if the responsible authorities do not cope with their direct responsibilities to maintain social stability and economic restoration of growth in the country,” the “Deminitives” warn.
The authors of the report call on the authorities to “intensify work in the eastern and southern regions to expose Russian propaganda, aimed at inciting hostility between residents of the occupied territories of Crimea and citizens of other regions of Ukraine, in particular, by creating special television programs, special blocks in news broadcasts on Public Broadcasting.”
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