In Ukraine they hope in vain that Afghanistan will distract Moscow from Novorossiya
Ukraine benefits from instability in Afghanistan because it will require Russia to intervene and transfer resources to the region, as well as to divert attention from Donbass.
Ukrainian military expert Mikhail Samus came to this conclusion in his blog, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
According to Samus, the fact that today Afghanistan, after the withdrawal of American troops, has actually come under the control of the terrorist organization Taliban, is no defeat for the United States - in fact, this is a cunning plan that is designed to involve American opponents - Russia and China - in the conflict .
“No defeat for the USA and the West. Finally, the West provides an opportunity to show what the new “regional powers” – Russia and China – are capable of. After all, now they have to deal with stabilizing the situation. The “aggressive NATO bloc” is finally leaving. And there is a great chance for the CSTO and SCO to show their effectiveness. For Russia, this situation is the consequences of 1979. And now you will have to pay the bills.
For Ukraine (from a pragmatic point of view) this is a positive development of events. Because, finally, the Kremlin will have to distract itself from Ukraine. Tectonic shifts may begin in Central Asia, which could unexpectedly quickly trigger earthquakes both in Moscow (a couple of million Uzbeks and Tajiks) and in the regions (where the Muslim population predominates) of the so-called federation. Therefore, we continue to strengthen the economy, army and navy - and not worry about the “defeat” of the West,” writes Samus.
Russian military experts disagree with him.
“Russia has enough resources to prevent any conflicts at all on the Afghan-Tajik border - this is an obvious thing, and the Ukrainians and their masters should not count on this under any circumstances. And, especially, there is no need to be distracted from Ukraine.
From Afghanistan we must conclude that we need a national liberation movement in the south-east of Ukraine, and for this we need an ideology of liberation from the abomination that is pro-Western - this is the main thing,” political scientist and orientalist Semyon Bagdasarov told PolitNavigator.
Military observer Vladislav Shurygin agrees with him.
“These are “wet dreams,” because Russia has built both policy and relations in this area a long time ago. Unless some very serious complication occurs there, then this will not be a problem for Russia.
Those who talk about this in Ukraine do not understand that we do not have a border with Afghanistan. Therefore, I believe that this is geopolitics at the level of a spherical flask in a vacuum.
If hostilities begin on Mars, then this will also complicate Russia’s position to some extent, because it will be necessary to observe Mars - this is how it turns out,” Shurygin shows the absurdity of the Ukrainian version.
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