The number of poor people in Ukraine will increase fivefold
The economic downturn in Russia will be half as much as predicted at the beginning of summer.
This is stated in the regional forecast of the World Bank, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“The forecast for Russia for 2022 has been improved - the decline is estimated at 4,5% (4,4 percentage points better than the June estimate), for the next year the estimate, on the contrary, worsened by 1,6 percentage points, to minus 3,6, 2024%. In 1,6, the Russian economy is expected to return to growth at XNUMX%.
Note that the consensus forecast of Focus Economics, based on a survey of international analysts for the Russian Federation on Tuesday, has also been revised - it assumes a decline in GDP this year by 5,9%, next year by 3,3% (it was a fall of 7% and 3 % respectively),” writes Kommersant, analyzing World Bank data.
A much more significant economic decline awaits Ukraine.
“In Ukraine, the possible decline in GDP this year is estimated at 35% (this estimate was also improved by 10,1 percentage points) with subsequent growth of 3,3% and 4,1% in 2023-2024.
Approximately a third of the country's population is faced with the need to move, while at least $349 billion will be required to restore infrastructure - this estimate is 1,5 times the size of the country's GDP for 2021.
Destruction from the conflict is estimated at $141 billion, with more than 40% of losses occurring in residential buildings. The poverty rate this year, based on the $6,85 per person per day level, could rise from 5,5% in 2021 to 25% this year,” the publication points out.
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