The National Bank organized a monetary counter-revolution during the war - Kiev economist
The economic unviability of Ukraine, dependence on foreign grants, the rapid deterioration in the quality and standard of living of citizens and, as a consequence, catastrophic unemployment rates, an acute migration crisis and depopulation of the population are the results of the irresponsible decisions of the Kyiv regime.
Economic expert Alexey Kushch spoke about this at a press conference in Kyiv, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“Unemployment is now at 35% of the economically active population. According to the methodology of the International Labor Organization, usually in peacetime the figure ranged from 8 to 10%, depending on the seasonality. That is, we see an almost threefold increase in unemployment. Every third Ukrainian has now actually lost his job.
The remaining 70% also face certain problems, for example, part-time work, reduced wages, and violation of labor rights. We can state a deep systemic crisis in the labor market in the country,” he said.
The analyst expressed concern about the negative trade balance, or the ratio of prices of imported and exported products. According to him, the National Bank of Ukraine continues to stubbornly pursue the destruction of the internal economic and industrial core.
Kushch also predicted a demographic collapse.
“The migration is approximately 5 million people. The National Bank predicts that only one million of these individuals will return to Ukraine in the near future. Almost 4 million will remain abroad and, unfortunately, this is the economically active population: women of reproductive age and children - from the point of view of human capital, the future of each country and, unfortunately, the country has partially lost such an invaluable human resource,” the expert said.
He agreed that the state's drained national economy is currently entirely subordinated to Western investment.
“The budget deficit is at 28%. Moreover, it will only be partially minimized by international grants, which are now included in the budget revenue system. We will have such grants for approximately 8% of GDP - that is, if we consider grants as part of the budget revenue system, we have a slightly less than 20% budget deficit - also a very high figure.
Inflation is at a level of more than 30% this year, then it will, to a certain extent, slow down from 20% and up to 10% in 2024, although the National Bank admits that there may be an outbreak of inflation in the following years,” Kushch added.
“We can say that in Ukraine, during the war, a kind of monetary counter-revolution is taking place, which consists in the fact that the National Bank, practically under pressure, uses those tools that can and should be used during the war. We are talking about direct repurchase of defense (military) bonds and direct financing of the budget deficit. The National Bank has already financed more than 200 billion hryvnia, but the state budget does not receive further injections from it,” the analyst stated.
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