Beginning of the End? The successes of the militia should not turn your head
While monuments to Lenin are being demolished in Kharkov, in the south of Donbass the Ukrainian army and Ukrainian volunteer battalions from among the nationalists are being demolished.
Everyone, as they say, does what they are capable of. And while the metastasis of vandalism had already penetrated into the former capital of the Ukrainian SSR, a whole company of Ukrainian soldiers surrendered near Amvrosievka - weak-willed and humiliated, driven to a fratricidal war by the Kyiv necrophiles who seized power. Three new pockets were formed, containing up to 7 thousand ATO fighters.
Lose honor and lose the war
The situation of the Ukrainian army is not just bad - it is terrible. Ordinary warriors do not want to fight for anything, they are trying to maneuver between “saving their skin” from the tribunal and the Nazi detachments and coming under fire from the army of Novorossiya.
And as it happens in our history, the counter-offensive begins after the parade, but not after the parade in Kyiv, but in Donetsk. During the blasphemous passage of vehicles along Khreshchatyk, along the central streets of Donetsk, women and men from the militia led captured Ukrainian soldiers in full view of thousands of Donetsk residents. This move had a huge moral impact. Ukrainian media were unable to bypass it, and they failed to give the necessary propaganda assessment, negating the informational impact of the Kyiv parade.
Already, according to Gubarev, the flow of people into the militia has increased fourfold. In the wonderful Soviet film "The Green Van" there was a moment when a noble Odessa thief escapes from under escort, putting himself under the death penalty only because he had to be led through the city to prison for a minor violation by a woman with a rifle and bayonet. This is how the Ukrainian women from Donetsk led their way through the capital of Donbass, and it was an amazing sight. Well, who could have let the stupid idea into their head that the stubborn Donetsk and Luhansk residents could be broken by such impudent impudence?
Breaking point – Ilovaisk
The last real offensive of the ATO forces was in Ilovaisk. It was not regular military personnel or conscripts who gathered there, but punitive battalions charged with nationalism, completely of their own free will and under their command. And they crashed...
Angela Merkel is already speaking about the need to stop the war. While international detachments of French, Spanish, Serbs, Greeks, Czechs and Germans appear in the Donetsk militia, Kyiv continues to shout about “thousands of Chechens” and demand blood. Merkel changed her rhetoric after receiving information from the fronts of Novorossiya, indicating a stop to the entire ATO. It got to the point that the Chancellor spoke about the possible accession of Ukraine to the Union... but not the European, but the Eurasian. She expressed it politically correctly, saying that Germany would not interfere if Ukraine decided to take such a step.
And at this time, in the Kyiv party of war and the commonwealth of necrophiles, the offensive of the army of New Russia aroused long-circulating rumors about Avakov’s resignation. Idle tongues say that Poroshenko is already dissatisfied with Avakov, especially since elections are starting.
The resignation of the Minister of Internal Affairs is apparently expected soon; in any case, the Aidar and Donbass terrorist battalions defeated near Donetsk will angrily turn to him for explanations.
But the offensive of the army of Novorossiya, access to the Sea of Azov, the liberation of a number of cities and the upcoming assault on Mariupol may also open up dangerous gaps in the organization of military militia units. The offensive requires logistical support, which is still at a low level. During an offensive, logistics work takes up at least 75% of the total military work. The attacking side always suffers losses by definition, so in addition to fuel, ammunition and food, it is necessary to organize medical care and immediate evacuation of the wounded right on the front line. An offensive can open flanks, endanger encirclement, etc.
Therefore, it is very early to rejoice, especially since even the capture of Mariupol and the return of Slavyansk will not stop the war, but will only give a temporary respite. But the Ukrainian troops and punitive mercenaries are retreating like an avalanche, abandoning equipment and ammunition, and this bitter experience of the ATO forces should teach the militia forces how to conduct an offensive, or rather, how not to conduct an offensive. The punitive forces find themselves in a very delicate situation when they are forced to defend settlements with a population that is extremely disloyal to them, and this is extremely difficult and often simply impossible.
The first fruit that an offensive can bring is negotiations for a ceasefire and truce. After military successes, these successes need to be consolidated by political actions and the administrative management of liberated areas and cities. This is what is especially important now.
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