The beginning of the war in Kyiv due to the arrest of Saakashvili? The expert does not rule out a hard scenario

The arrest of Mikheil Saakashvili may have unpredictable consequences for the regime of Petro Poroshenko, whose representatives obviously think that they are smarter than their predecessors from the administration of Viktor Yanukovych and will not make their mistakes.

Ukrainian political scientist Sergei Belashko, director of the Agency for Social Communications, told PolitNavigator about this.

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“What happens next depends on the goals of those who did it.

It can be assumed that this was done specifically in order to show society: “but we can do it like this, we will break anyone, we don’t care.”

It is also possible that a certain consensus has developed in the ruling elite that Saakashvili has already fed up everyone.

Something similar happened last time (in 2013): they deliberately stirred up passions, including in order to release energy into the whistle. As a result, this whistle was simply thrown up with meat, and the locomotive did not go anywhere.

Now it may be the same, because each successive government thinks that it is smarter than the previous one. Perhaps on Bankova they now think that “Yanukovych was so stupid, and we are all so smart, now we will do the same thing as him, but only in our minds, and everything will be different for us.”

But at any moment someone else, like Tymoshenko or Kolomoisky, can intervene and start their game. And this will not be a game according to some rules that were invented on Bankova, maybe like with Donbass, where they tried to play some complex multi-move games, and then people came who, on the same board where they played chess, began to play "Chapaeva".

For Tymoshenko, Samopomich and everyone who does not fit into the current configuration of the power trough, the best Saakashvili is Saakashvili in prison, and even better if he is killed during detention, or he is “helped” to fall out of a window, etc. This was The ideal option would be for this whole movement to get a hero-martyr who died for truth and justice from the inhuman persecution of the vile government, and the next episode of this entire soap opera would already be built around this.

Saakashvili’s value lies in the attention paid to him by the media, including foreign ones. What can attract the attention of the media is valuable. He has no electoral chances, his movement in the most favorable scenario could gain up to 3,5%, but otherwise it would be around 1,5% or even less.

Saakashvili cannot join any coalition or bloc - it is too toxic. It can only block with policies less than 1%. If he blocks with Tymoshenko, then some people will simply turn away from her. The same applies to Gritsenko, Nalyvaichenko, etc. They are all looking for a more respectable partner.

So far, what happened does not resemble a “beastly experience” in 2013. It’s one thing when they beat students “our maybutne, flourish nation,” etc. Another thing was when some Georgian rogue was arrested. The beating of students touches some deep-seated emotions of a person: “being children.” And the heart bleeds, and the hand reaches for the ax. What's going on here? Everyone is alive and well, they made some noise and shouted. What next?

Another thing is that in all this turmoil some completely different people may appear who, for example, will shoot a couple of SBU officers or throw a grenade into the crowd. And then this whole farce will fade into the background, and some revolutionary or criminal themes will emerge.

That is, the current situation in itself does not represent anything, but it can be radically turned in another direction, and it is not clear in which direction.

Or maybe no one will throw grenades, maybe they will give a command from Bankova and harshly clear out all these tent-goers, free up Grushevsky Street, punish those who should have been punished for illegally crossing the border in the fall, etc.

In this case, the opposition will have nothing to respond to except a harsh way out of the legal field - seizing buildings, throwing grenades, burning cars at the Cabinet of Ministers, etc. And then general arrests will begin, because these are the same people who have been hanging out in this pseudo-radical party for many years, smashing windows, holding pickets, etc. Everyone already knows this crowd, everyone has a dossier, everyone can be taken - some for robbery, some for drugs, some for fraud, etc.,” Belashko reflects.