“Nationalists in Belarus are marginal. Thanks to Nikita Khrushchev"

Belarus is perhaps the only republic that has managed to fully preserve and enhance the legacy of the USSR. A balanced foreign policy allowed Minsk to avoid conflicts with neighboring states and become the flagship of new integration in the post-Soviet space. It was for this that the republic was subject to Western sanctions, but managed to survive and achieve sustainable development.

Today Belarus is a full member of the Eurasian Union. The observer talks about how Belarusians managed to cope with manifestations of nationalism and the activities of Western NGOs PolitNavigator to Valentin Filippov Minsk political scientist said Yuri Shevtsov.

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Valentin Filippov: Yuri, hello. From time to time we hear from Kyiv about the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus.

It seems that Kyiv is trying to paint the image of an enemy out of Belarusians, to quarrel with the last of the neighboring states with whom Ukraine has not yet had time to quarrel.

Yuri Shevtsov: You know, it seems to me that this is the unofficial position of Ukraine, it’s just some radical circles spreading this kind of disinformation. But here I would treat Alexander Lukashenko’s statements on this matter straightforwardly. He said several years ago that there would be no attack on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus.

Valentin Filippov: Belarus has experienced quite large sanctions from the West. Lukashenko was called “the last dictator of Europe.” And, nevertheless, the Belarusian economy is already being set as an example in Ukraine today.

Yuri Shevtsov: Here society was constantly in a state of some mobilization. And therefore, the percentage of people who had illusions about many of the promises of the West was not high.

Here in Belarus there is a very high percentage of people who constantly travel to the West. Before the introduction of visa-free travel in Ukraine, the share of people with Schengen visas was three times higher than in Ukraine. And our real knowledge of the West is very high in our society.

Well, let’s say, from Minsk to Vilnius is about 140 km. And young people have a habit of going there on weekends, walking around the city, drinking beer. And the fact that there was some constant Western mobilization contributed to the fact that people constantly visited the West, but at the same time looked at it somewhat restrainedly.

There is some kind of exaltation about the West in Ukraine, but not in Belarus.

Valentin Filippov: Belarusians understand that the West is not paradise.

Yuri Shevtsov: Certainly. In addition, the West supported our nationalist opposition for many years. And nationalism is very unpopular in Belarus. And so, when this combination took place - the West’s support for openly unpopular politicians and their ideology. So how? They attack the state and support the nationalists. At the same time, when you come to Vilnius or Warsaw, it’s far from paradise. All this taken together has led to a very rational attitude in society towards the West.

Valentin Filippov: Minsk chose the Union State with Russia. In Ukraine they claim that in this case Belarus is threatened with absorption. They say that Moscow completely controls the economy and dictates politics.

Yuri Shevtsov: Not really. So the question is not worth it at all. Look, when Lukashenko came to power in 1994, there were Russian nuclear weapons and Russian troops on the territory of Belarus. There was no Belarusian currency and so on. Today we have all the established institutions of power, our own financial system. In some cases, we have differences between Belarus and Russia on foreign policy. Well, let's say Belarus did not recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia. There are some other points. Therefore, I, for example, do not feel such a problem at all.

Valentin Filippov: Belarus also has a gas pipeline, a gas transportation system. And as far as I heard, its modernization was carried out due to investments from Russia. Ukraine at one time refused this option.

Yuri Shevtsov: It's a little different here. Gazprom bought this transport system. Once. Secondly, there was one gas pipeline on the territory of Belarus, the Yamal gas pipeline, which was initially built by Gazprom and belonged to it in general. Today Gazprom has the Belarusian transit gas transportation system at its disposal. But the distribution is internal, the internal distribution network is the property of Belarus.

You see, Belarus does not have a particular problem with Gazprom. There are guaranteed gas supplies. There are disputes over gas prices. Belarus wants to have a stable price for gas, the same as that of the Russian constituent entities of the Federation, taking into account the longer transit time; they are ready to pay a little extra. And this condition is fixed in the Treaty on the Eurasian Union. Even earlier, in the agreement on the Customs Union, on the basis of which the Eurasian Union arose. This transition to equal-income prices should take place under this agreement somewhere in 2025.

Therefore, today Belarus receives gas at a price higher than the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, but lower than the world gas price. This constantly creates some difficulties in relationships, but, in principle, there are no too big problems here.

Valentin Filippov: Is there any migration outflow from Belarus to Russia? I had occasion to meet Belarusians in Russia who are undergoing a resettlement program. But at the same time, I met many Russians who said that they would like to move to Belarus. How about this?

Yuri Shevtsov: There is no demographic problem. There is simply some flow of people back and forth, but this does not create any demographic tension. There are numbers. In 1989, according to the last Soviet census, there were 10 million 200 thousand people in Belarus. Today there are 9 million 500 thousand people in Belarus. That is, there is a slight drop in numbers, but it is not significant.

And this figure of 9,5 million population was formed a long time ago. Sometimes there are some years when the population grows a little. When the war began in Ukraine, there was a small jump in the population due to Ukrainian refugees. But that’s how it’s usually been at 9,5 million for probably seven years now.

As for the citizens of Ukraine, I remember that when the war began, we adopted a special legal framework. Citizens of Ukraine were given free medical care and children could attend children's educational institutions for free: schools, kindergartens, and plus they even exempted Ukrainian motorists from paying road tolls.

Valentin Filippov: You mentioned that Belarus, for example, did not recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In the same way, Belarus is still silent about Crimea.

Yuri Shevtsov: Well, this is the position. That is, it is not necessary to attract attention, aggravate, or escalate. And Russia, in general, does not require it. There is no pressure for Belarus to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia. I also don’t see any pressure on Crimea. There are constant statements from the Russian side that we are not putting pressure, we are not creating problems.

Then, we have such a mechanism as joint boards of ministries and departments - Belarusian and Russian. They meet at least once a year. Including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. And at the last collegium, in my opinion, of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a plan of joint actions in foreign policy was adopted. That is, we coordinate this kind of thing. In short, I don't see a problem here.

Valentin Filippov: And yet, it’s amazing how you managed to curb the Nazis, if it’s really true that radical nationalists in Belarus have no support.

Yuri Shevtsov: And I can offer an explanation.  It's all about Nikita Sergeevich Khrushchev.

Valentin Filippov: And here he is.

Yuri Shevtsov: Yes. After Stalin's death, he made compromises in the Baltic states and Western Ukraine with the nationalists. For example, people released from prisons were given the opportunity to return to their homeland en masse.

Belarusian policemen also left the camps, but it was very difficult for them to return to Belarus. In Belarus there was an uncompromising attitude towards collaborators. Therefore, they were simply erased from post-war Belarusian history and social life.

Those who found themselves in exile in the West split into supporters of collaborators and nationalists who were against collaborators. But there weren’t very many of these nationalists and, ultimately, the face of the Belarusian emigration in the West was determined by the policemen who fled. And it turned out that they did not have a more or less noticeable social base inside Belarus.

And therefore nationalism in Belarus turned out to be a very marginal phenomenon. In Soviet times, after the war, some nonconformists became nationalists: students, artists - and even then, not all. Therefore, this is some kind of movement, more like a sect. They irritate the average person. For example, people with low incomes see their protector not in these people, but in Lukashenko.

Valentin Filippov: I must say thank you to Lukashenko - in Ukraine, the entire humanitarian sphere was given to those nationalists. It seems that they did not interfere in anything, they were not allowed into the cash flow, but they were allowed to educate young people for 20 years.

Yuri Shevtsov: No, we also have a very tough attitude here. You see, our nationalists are different from Ukrainian ones. They are more distant from society. Our nationalists, compared to the Ukrainian ones, are just role players. They are fighting for Western money, for grants. And so, in principle, they are like children, I would say. And they constantly put forward some theses that alienate them from the people.

It is very important for them to constantly maintain this great distance from the people. For example, when Lukashenko came to power, he was supported, first of all, by the village. And then she was still relatively Belarusian-speaking. The nationalists put forward the thesis that the people are sick, that the people are sick with cultural diseases. We are the elite, we are the aristocracy. This means that they cut themselves off from the Belarusian-speaking village with their own hands.

Then they constantly emphasize a certain cult: “We are the city elite, the aristocracy, the gentry, and these are all cattle, collective farmers.” These are those who are for Lukashenko. Again, they cut themselves off from native speakers of the Belarusian language. And it turned out that they found themselves and constantly find themselves in such a sectarian niche.

These are not your nationalists who really fought for influence on minds and politics. Even if only in the ideological segment. The Belarusians thought of nominating themselves as quickly as possible.

Valentin Filippov: In this regard, tell me, Minsk, behaving in a balanced, thoughtful, calm manner, will it still be able to help end the civil conflict in Ukraine through its mediation?

Yuri Shevtsov: You know, Minsk will not solve the Ukrainian problem. Belarus has a population of 9,5 million. This is a country that is much more compact and smaller in population than Ukraine. Then, Belarus has no clues about the Ukrainian situation.

Valentin Filippov: I meant the Minsk negotiation site.

Yuri Shevtsov: There is no mediation there. A platform is simply provided there. Lukashenko is not a mediator. He constantly emphasizes: “I don’t want to be a middleman.” It's just a platform. They gather in Minsk, and that’s it.