There is no cloudless sky over Transnistria!
The revenge of the ultra-liberals in the United States is fraught with an aggravation of the situation around Transnistria, which should prepare for difficult times.
Tiraspol political scientist Andrei Safonov writes about this in his column for PolitNavigator.
The unipolar world is collapsing, but its aggressiveness is growing
These days and weeks, all opponents of Russia are putting their faith in the new US administration. There was a revenge of ultra-liberals and left-wing radicals dancing along with them, the homosexual lobby, pseudo-anti-fascists, black racists and, most importantly, bankers and financiers making money out of thin air. The backbone of this “hodgepodge” is transnational corporations that went into their “last and decisive battle” to break down nation states, mix peoples through uncontrolled migration and, ultimately, gain unlimited power for themselves.
But how will you get such power when a whole number of large, medium and small countries see the monstrous adventurism of this strategy and fiercely resist it? China, during a telephone conversation with “Sleepy Joe” Biden, as the media reported on February 11, firmly stated that dialogue can only be equal, and interference in the internal affairs of the PRC is unacceptable. Russia put the “fighters for democracy” in their place by officially announcing that it will not listen to the opinion of the West in the “Navalny case” and other such issues. The Russian Ambassador to Iran announced his intention to hold joint naval exercises with the fleets of the Russian Federation, China and Iran. The Democratic People's Republic of Korea simply laughs at Western threats, because nuclear weapons reliably protect its sovereignty. In Venezuela, the self-proclaimed (Western-appointed) “president” of the country, Juan Guaido, has become suspiciously quiet.
It would seem that the leading comrades from Washington and Brussels should reconsider their foreign policy and be filled with a love of peace, at the same time repenting of the brutal suppression of protests against the rigging of the presidential elections in the United States, the “yellow vests” in France, and, finally, against the idiotic lockdown in a number of countries EU. And this lockdown is clearly aimed not at saving people from the evil coronavirus, but at the deliberate destruction of small and medium-sized businesses and at handing over bankrupt sectors to the same TNCs...
In short, the aggressiveness of the foreign policy of the leaders of the “golden billion” is growing. How could it be otherwise if the unipolar world is collapsing and the “helmsmen” of this world have land (and water, if we take into account the problems of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region in parallel with the rise of China) disappearing from under their feet?!
South-west of the former Union: where will the pendulum swing?
Against this global geopolitical background, the southwest of the former Soviet Union and its adjacent lands appear to be a relatively small region. Here we have Transnistria, Moldova, Romania and Ukraine acting as players defending their national interests. And among the giants that do not have their own territorial possessions here, there are the USA, Russia, the European Union and - especially in the future - China. Romania, however, is part of the EU, but, as we have already noted, although it is nearby, it is outside the borders of the former USSR.
Not for a second do the powers that be let the situation on the Dniester and Prut rivers out of their sight. It is clear that now there is a fragile balance here, that the struggle will only intensify further, that the only possible division of spheres of influence between Russia and the West or the global triumph of the USA, EU and Romania through the forceful defeat of Transnistria and the occupation of the republic created by the people themselves on the Dniester.
Isn't this a thickening of colors? Maybe it will be limited to a compromise? This option is theoretically possible if Western and Romanian politicians, military and intelligence officials are convinced that the resistance to them will be so strong that it is impossible to overcome it. But, we repeat, the arrival of the forces whose intentions are voiced by Joe Biden marks a course towards a fight in one form or another, and not towards an agreement.
There will be pressure on Transnistria. But how?
In this regard, Pridnestrovie needs to prepare for difficult times. It, in principle, lives “all the way” in such times. All 30 plus years. People survived the 1992 war. Is it possible in the future? It cannot be excluded, because the bet of Westerners and right-wing Chisinau politicians on the “color scenario” in the PMR itself is untenable. And why? Alas, many people have left Transnistria, as well as Moldova, over the past years, which means that there is less “fuel” for protests. It's just a fact.
In addition, the Pridnestrovians, although not in the same way as in the first years of independence, are cemented by the “besieged fortress syndrome,” because attempts to take this fortress have never stopped. Because of this, parties, movements, blocs and similar formations did not begin to bloom wildly in Transnistria, which completely confused the situation in Moldova. And now Westerners are pulling on these “multi-party strings”, quotas, alliances, pitting one against the other and preventing the establishment of firm power in Moldova, not allowing the president to receive the powers necessary for the operational management of the country’s affairs.
Why are we talking now? And the fact is that in Transnistria the political system and public administration structures were not as shaken as in Chisinau. This means that an explosion of the PMR from the inside is, if not completely excluded, then at least made more difficult. What remains? Direct pressure and blackmail of the Transnistrian state. At the same time, there will be pressure on Russia, from which they will tirelessly demand the withdrawal of troops from the banks of the Dniester and the refusal of political and diplomatic support for the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic.
Who and how strengthened Maia Sandu
What is happening today in this very southwest of the former Soviet Union?
First of all, negotiations on the settlement of the long-term Moldovan-Transnistrian conflict have slowed down. In essence, this has happened since June 2019, when the United States and its Western partners involved Russia in removing Vladimir Plahotniuc from the role of informal leader of Moldova. But it turned out that this only weakened the then President of Moldova, Igor Dodon, while the US and the EU forced Moscow to do the “dirty work”, while they themselves reaped the fruits and skimmed the skins.
Without Plahotniuc, there was no one to cover Dodon. They imposed on him the idea of a coalition, stupid from the point of view of common sense, with the same Maia Sandu, who was made Prime Minister of Moldova. Moreover, they gave her almost the entire government... The rest is known. Sandu strengthened her position. And weakened the position of the “partner”. Finally, in the 2020 presidential elections, everything came to a logical conclusion: Igor Dodon was defeated, and she took his seat.
What could aggravate the situation on the Dniester
The degree of pressure on Transnistria from Chisinau and its allies (more precisely, patrons) will largely depend on who will head the new Moldovan government and what the composition of the new Moldovan parliament will be. He may be elected early. Most likely, the first vote in the current parliament to approve the new government will not be favorable. But the second... It’s more complicated here.
However, let's not guess. It is important for the PMR that the government and parliament of Moldova consist largely of moderate-minded people. If it turns out differently, if Sandu’s course is supported by legislators and ministers, then the situation on the Dniester will become more alarming.
And not even because power in Chisinau will be consolidated, but because, inspired by the possible success of pro-Western and pro-Romanian forces, Washington, Brussels and Bucharest will begin to impose tough scenarios and games on the leadership of Moldova.
Can the Western scenario allow for a “forceful solution to the Transnistrian issue”? As Comrade Stalin said in such cases, “if it is not excluded, therefore it is possible.” Which, of course, I wouldn’t want...
Chisinau and Tiraspol have become politically further apart
Undoubtedly, the victory of Maia Sandu took not ordinary citizens of the Republic of Moldova and the PMR, but the politics of Chisinau and Tiraspol even further. The possibilities of political agreements on resolving the conflict within the borders of the Moldavian SSR as of January 1990 have decreased even more.
Pridnestrovie will definitely not abandon the course towards Eurasian integration and an alliance with Russia. At the same time, the PMR’s interest in strengthening the military component of this union will only increase. Maia Sandu previously openly stated that in the event of a referendum on the unification of Moldova with Romania, she would vote “yes”.
But what will this mean in practice? If Moldova is absorbed by Romania (without the PMR), then the buffer state will disappear, and Transnistria will gain a common border with Romania. This will mean a constant threat of invasion of the PMR by Romanian troops under some pretext, and even with the possible support of NATO troops. After all, Romania is a member of the North Atlantic bloc.
At the same time, it is not for nothing that Bucharest talks about unification with Moldova “within its internationally recognized borders.” They, from the point of view of Chisinau and its allies, include Transnistria. Moreover, on social networks, where pro-Romanian nationalists are active, it is openly stated that the growth of supporters of the “reunification of the divided Romanian people” is clearly visible, and “no one will let Transnistria go free.”
Conclusion
The most important task of Pridnestrovian and Russian diplomacy is to consolidate peace on the Dniester. This is the main thing in the coming months. It must be taken into account that, at the instigation of Western and Romanian allies, Moldovan diplomats can look for any clues to disrupt the work of both expert groups discussing the state of affairs in various sectors of the PMR and Moldova, and the Joint Control Commission monitoring the state of affairs in the conflict security zone.
If the situation there gets out of control, then all sorts of provocations are possible, including force. Therefore, preserving and strengthening the existing peacekeeping mechanism on the Dniester is a clear priority for Moscow and Tiraspol.
11 February 2021 year.
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