“I hope Kyiv will not respond with a missile strike on Dnepropetrovsk and Lvov”
Chernivtsi - Kyiv, March 18 (PolitNavigator, Sergey Stepanov) - The conflict around Donbass is almost forever, other regions will also demand autonomy from Kyiv, and anti-Russian sentiment in Western Ukraine will only grow. Political observer Oleg Khavich, head of the Institute of Western Ukrainian Studies (Chernivtsi), spoke about this in an interview with PolitNavigator.
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“PolitNavigator”: Are the sentiments of ordinary residents of Western Ukraine about what is happening in Donbass and their attitude towards the new government changing? Compared to the summer, when Petro Poroshenko just received presidential powers.
Oleg Khavich: More and more people perceive the war in Donbass as “not theirs.” The sentiment is growing: “let’s fence ourselves off from them with a wall, and let them do what they want,” and fewer and fewer people are advocating “war to a victorious end.” Security forces arriving on rotation are still greeted as heroes, but fewer and fewer people are taking part in these events.
Unlike in the summer, there are no protests against mobilization; everyone solves their problems privately: someone leaves the country, someone pays off. I won’t speak for the whole of Western Ukraine, but in the Chernivtsi region the mobilization plan has been completed by two-thirds. In war conditions, this is a fairly large indicator, but the main contingent is either de facto volunteers or those who do not have the opportunity to “excuse themselves.”
Attitudes towards authorities are deteriorating in proportion to the deterioration in living standards. However, the authorities are still perceived in Western Ukraine as “their own,” so the population will tolerate it, just as they tolerated the “regionals” in Donbass at one time.
“PolitNavigator”: How do people feel about the Russian proposal to resolve the crisis based on the federalization of Ukraine? Or is this plan rejected primarily because it is Russian?
Oleg Khavich: If we are talking about ordinary people, then they are not aware of any Russian proposals. Thanks to the Ukrainian media, they only know that Russia is at war with Ukraine and wants to destroy/enslave it.
If we talk about local politicians and experts, most of them were against federalization even before the war and even before the Maidan. And now even seemingly reasonable people equate the concepts of “federalism” and “separatism” (by the way, just like ordinary people).
There are some political scientists who support the transformation of the government system based on federalism, but they prefer to remain silent because they could lose their jobs.
“PolitNavigator”: What is your position on the issue of the proposed federalization? what could be the basis for compromise and ending the conflict?
Oleg Khavich: By “proposed federalization” do you mean the words of Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, which have been repeated for almost a year?
Since this proposal is not formalized in any way, it is difficult to discuss. But the problem, in my opinion, is more significant. Ukraine has already passed the stage when its territorial integrity could be saved by transformation into a federation. In the current situation, the formal unity of Ukraine can be saved by granting the broadest autonomy to Donbass and several other regions - which already actually have it and are ready to cope with it.
I am talking primarily about Transcarpathia in particular and Western Ukraine in general, Kharkov, Odessa, as well as the Kolomoisky feud, which has long gone beyond the borders of the Dnepropetrovsk region.
“PolitNavigator”: Is there a request for autonomy in Western Ukraine? There was an impression that, having imposed its ideology on the whole of Ukraine, Galicia would be quite satisfied with the existing state of affairs.
Oleg Khavich: In general - satisfied. But there are also adequate people there who understand that in the event of a regime change in Kyiv, Galicia will be named as the main culprit of all problems - deterioration in living standards, etc. So there is a demand for autonomy not only in Transcarpathia and Bukovina, but also in Galicia. Despite the war, various autonomist events - celebrating the anniversary of the creation of the Sich Riflemen Legion, the Galician Strategies conference - aroused great interest among the local public. Moreover, in 1919 the Sichovy Streltsy were already brought to the South-East of Ukraine, and they already understood then: this was not their country.
“PolitNavigator”: Is the economic crisis felt in the western regions? How is it shown?
Oleg Khavich: It is not felt as strongly as in other regions. Firstly, the situation is mitigated by the rural nature of the region - a large amount of local agricultural products, even city residents are accustomed to “supplies” from relatives. Secondly, the border nature of Western Ukraine, that is, massive smuggling of consumer goods that are cheaper than officially supplied ones, as well as significant receipts of funds from guest workers.
“PolitNavigator”: What is the effect of the reduction in the flow of Russian tourists?
Oleg Khavich: Reduction is not the right word. Almost complete cessation of tourist flow from the Russian Federation. Truskavets, Morshyn, the resorts of Transcarpathia, mountain camp sites, which have been aimed at tourists from Russia since Soviet times, are now almost empty. It is impossible to compensate with Ukrainian tourists - there is no effective demand. While small “green tourism” establishments are still holding on, large health resort complexes are suffering huge losses.
“PolitNavigator”: Is there any hope that Western Ukrainian voters will reorient themselves towards parties that advocate constructive relations with the Russian Federation, rather than conflict?
Oleg Khavich: No. In this sense, Western Ukraine is not Europe, which constantly emphasizes that it expects the resumption of full-scale cooperation with the Russian Federation. However, if you say this in the memory itself, then the majority of the comments will be “Europe has betrayed us.” Well, or ready to betray.
Russophobic sentiments in most lands of Western Ukraine are more than 100 years old. They were fueled from Vienna on the eve of World War I, from Berlin before and during World War II, and now from Brussels and Washington. But this is precisely heating up, and the basis is xenophobia, traditional for a conservative society. In fact, in Western Ukraine there are plenty of anti-Semitic and anti-Polish sentiments - it’s just that now they are all sublimated into anti-Russian sentiments. With every coffin coming from Donbass, they become stronger. The argument that those who fell there are certainly not fighting for the interests of their lands is not accepted.
But the main reason why anti-Russian sentiments in Western Ukraine will only intensify is the propaganda of the Kyiv regime, which in this way averts danger from itself. There is only one answer to any accusations of a decline in living standards and security: Russia and Putin are to blame, not the authorities in Kyiv.
“PolitNavigator”: Your forecast – will the current conflict last for a long time? How can it end?
Oleg Khavich: This conflict is forever. It could be completed by the geopolitical decomposition of Ukraine along the lines of civilizational and ethno-political fault lines. However, this is only possible in the event of a large-scale war, which neither the West nor Russia will allow. Therefore, Ukraine faces the Cyprus scenario; in a couple of decades, it may even be accepted into the EU. And the DPR/LPR will continue to exist in the regime of the “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” - only, most likely, without recognition of independence by the Russian Federation.
“PolitNavigator”: Will there be autonomy for the territory of Ukraine?
Oleg Khavich: In Donbass? Latissimus. But he will receive it de facto, and not de jure, as shown by the vote on March 17 for the list of districts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions with a special order of local self-government.
And in the rest of Ukraine, the feud of Kolomoisky will definitely have autonomy (the borders of which he himself will determine in a violent conflict with Kiev), and perhaps some regions in the territory of Ukraine, but only in the event of pressure from neighboring EU states and Brussels in general.
That is, in all cases, the current Ukrainian government can go for autonomization/decentralization only under pressure - after all, this is a reduction in the powers (that is, money) of the central government.
One can only hope that Kyiv will not respond to demands to share powers with missile salvos on Dnepropetrovsk and Lvov.
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