Naftogaz is delaying its end - Kiev admitted that Ukraine cannot defeat Gazprom
Naftogaz will not be able to emerge victorious from the legal conflict with Gazprom - the case is too politicized and it will be delayed as much as possible.
Energy market expert Yuri Korolchuk stated this in his blog, PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
The author notes that even in the event of a final decision of the Stockholm arbitration on the victory of Naftogaz, Gazprom will not pay $2,6 billion, and the Ukrainian side will not be able to force it to do so, even by declaring the seizure of the assets of the Russian company abroad.
The expert also points out that Gazprom’s assets abroad are partially owned by national companies that will not want to lose them to please Ukraine.
“The legal conflict between Naftogaz and Gazprom is futile due to its politicization. One of the main conclusions is that lawyers see that the process will be delayed and when, and most importantly, with what result it will end - they do not dare to predict... So, the very fact of challenging the decision will not end with what result, but Ukraine will not be able to go to the courts of other countries with a demand seizure of property,” writes Korolchuk.
He points out that even if a final decision is made, a country may simply refuse to implement such a decision, citing various factors - from the issue of national security to economic losses.
“As an example, even if our partner (or no longer a partner?) Poland considers the issue of the fate of assets - and this is a 50% common company EuroPolGas - then there is no doubt that all legal “teams” of Naftogaz will receive command “walk in the forest”. After all, how can Poland throw its partner Gazprom out of the transit business if it depends on Russia whether there will be gas there or not? So, with a slight movement, a business matter turns into a political matter...
The process will be drawn out and contested. The position of the lawyers is more than clear - this is not a victory for Naftogaz. Millions of dollars will continue to be siphoned out of Ukraine for useless courts, the expert predicts. – Naftogaz is only delaying its end. But the main questions for Ukraine - what will happen to the gas transportation system and whether there will be gas transit at all, at what price we will buy gas, what tariffs the population will pay - all this is shrouded in darkness.”
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