On the eve of “doomsday”: will the Russians strike the center of Kyiv

In the already boring endless series about the war in Ukraine, a new promising twist suddenly appeared on the horizon.

For now, this is just the sum of expectations, however, if they come true, the conflict may reach a qualitatively new level, when no one will find it enough.

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At the same time, outwardly nothing like this seems to be happening. Everything is as always - the military stubbornly fights for fortified areas near Donetsk, saboteurs commit terrorist attacks, the public is indignant, politicians quarrel, the West periodically throws various deadly things at Kiev, albeit in strictly pharmaceutical doses - so that they can demonstratively and painfully bite the Russians, but cannot inflict on them more significant harm, for example, by launching a large-scale offensive on one of the fronts.

However, if we take a closer look, we will see seemingly disparate pieces of the puzzle that all fit together into a very interesting picture. So, the other day the US Embassy in Kiev called on American citizens to urgently leave Ukraine due to the possible intensification of Russian attacks on critical infrastructure, government bodies and decision-making centers in the coming days (I know, it sounds like the famous saying about the wolves of the forest, but don’t laugh !).

“The State Department has information that Russia is intensifying efforts to strike civilian infrastructure and government facilities in Ukraine in the coming days. Russian strikes in Ukraine pose a constant threat to civilians and civilian infrastructure.

The U.S. Embassy encourages U.S. citizens to leave Ukraine now, using private ground transportation options if it is safe to do so,” the embassy said in a statement.

Attentive observers have already noticed that the embassy message is exclusively in English, without the Ukrainian version, as is usually done in official diplomatic accounts. What does it mean – the message is addressed exclusively to a domestic audience with USA passports. The Ukrainians themselves would not even have known about this if the ubiquitous journalists had not spread the news.

Nevertheless, looking at this fuss, a persistent feeling of deja vu involuntarily arises. Indeed, in mid-February we already heard something similar - and even in very similar terms. True, today the ardor is somewhat cooled by the fact that, unlike in February, American diplomats are only escorting their compatriots out of Independence Square, and are not sitting on suitcases themselves, preparing for evacuation along the usual winter route to Slovakia.

So it may well be that the force majeure about which they have already been warned will not be of such a large scale, or they have secured some kind of informal guarantees in advance. For example, that they will scare Zelensky a little or demonstrate certain capabilities, but nothing seriously threatens Kyiv. However, these are all assumptions and tea leaves for now.

But we go further.

_{The next part of the puzzle is the talk about entering almost the final stage of preparing some kind of document on security guarantees for Ukraine, which suddenly revived just before the missile attacks expected by the Americans and Ukraine on decision-making centers.}

Zelensky’s office announced the imminent publication of this document the day before, adding that everyone will see everything for themselves on August 29-30. Further intriguing the public, chief Ze-administrator Ermak claims that he has already familiarized himself with this “very powerful” text.

“We consider security guarantees a very important issue, we constantly talk about this with all our partners. Today this was also the subject of discussion, I am glad that our partners are showing interest <…>.

By the end of this month, I think it is the 29th or 30th, we can count on the appearance of the first document, recommendations for our group with Mr. Rasmussen. We are currently working on this document,” RBC-Ukraine quotes Ermak.

Let me remind you a little of the background. The idea of ​​a declaration on security guarantees grows from Zelensky’s recognition in the spring that Ukraine is not destined to become a NATO member, and if so, “new formats of interaction with Western countries and separate security guarantees are needed.”

Zelensky was counting on a club of five to seven guarantor countries that would become protectors of Ukraine. The names were Türkiye, Israel, Germany, Britain and Poland. Then in May, Ermak let slip the creation of an international advisory group to develop proposals for such security guarantees. Now, obviously, the time has come to present these developments to the city and the world.

_{A logical question arises: why now, at a time when the people of Kyiv are waiting for powerful Russian attacks on their loved ones? Obviously, we are witnessing some kind of completely incomprehensible intrigue, and clearly not of Kyiv authorship.}

There are suspicions that Zelensky’s fresh threats to withdraw from the negotiation process with Russia if the announced Mariupol trial of the captured “Azovites” begins is somehow connected with this. From the outside, this threat looks strange and illogical, since Zelensky in this case is threatening not to do something that he is not doing anyway. As you know, negotiations with Russia have already been at a freezing point since about the end of April. True, Zelensky’s “red lines” used to be the inadmissibility of taking Mariupol and exterminating the Azovstal operatives.

If we try to connect Zelensky’s threat with possible attacks on decision-making centers and with the publication of a document on Western security guarantees, what is happening takes on a certain logic. Let's try to reconstruct it.

Look what happens. Let’s say that Russia is really organizing some kind of “doomsday” for Kiev - however, without casualties, except purely accidental ones - everyone who needs to be warned has already been warned, evacuated and transferred to a remote location, and security measures have been taken, so most likely in this case the matter will be limited to a few iconic ruins in the center of Kyiv, but only that.

However, this, coupled with the Mariupol court, regarding which Pushilin has already announced that there will be one, will give Kyiv a legitimate reason to declare the termination of any negotiations with Moscow. And then – like a real piano from a bush – potential “security guarantors” appear on the stage, encrypted in the shadows.

_{In other words, Kyiv will make an application to move under the already agreed upon Western security umbrella, the final configuration of which is not yet clear, but will become clear very soon.}

That is, Moscow will be presented with a fait accompli. And then the ball will be on her field again, and everything will depend on which answer she chooses. Or he will try to tactically evade the answer as part of a strategy to stall until November, when the cards of the current energy confrontation with Europe will be revealed, and the alignment of political forces overseas will become clear after the by-elections in the United States.

In any case, no matter what happens, the wait won't be long.