“We are being burned and robbed.” Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are far from a real settlement
The results of the bloody conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are impressive. Thus, according to data on the evening of April 30, 154 wounded and 31 dead were identified on the Kyrgyz side, and 110 residents were wounded and 8 died on the Tajik side. The UN, the OSCE, and the CSTO called for an end to the clashes, which ultimately led to the end of the shootings and to a joint declaration on de-escalation of the situation. But the reasons for the confrontation have not been resolved, and mutual bitterness has reached its peak, which may result in new clashes in the future.
Despite the fact that the heads of the foreign ministries of the two countries agreed on a ceasefire on Thursday afternoon, the confrontation only grew. Now it turns out that the military clashes on April 29 were not limited to skirmishes at the Golovnoy water distributor, located at the source of the canals replenishing the Tortkul reservoir, and the struggle for border outposts and posts. On this day, in the late afternoon, Tajik troops attacked several settlements at once, using heavy equipment and mortars.
Residents of the Kyrgyz villages of Razakov, Kulundu, Oochu, Eski Oochu, Beshkent, Maksat, Arka literally fled deep into the republic, and many buildings were engulfed in flames. These points were temporarily occupied by military personnel of the Republic of Tajikistan. During the conflict, armored vehicles, helicopters, mortars, as well as special forces of the State Committee for National Security of the two states were used. Units of regular troops were brought to the border, which could lead to a full-scale massacre that would be difficult to stop.
The parties were sobered by the statements of Russian Foreign Ministry representative Maria Zakharova, who called on the parties to immediately sit down at the negotiating table and end the fratricidal conflict. Subsequently, a special communiqué was even issued by the Russian Foreign Ministry.
“Moscow watched with alarm the sharp escalation of the situation on the disputed section of the border between the fraternal countries of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Unfortunately, there are casualties as a result of armed clashes. There were a significant number of casualties on both sides,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
Bishkek and Dushanbe were also influenced by the statements of Deputy Defense Ministry of the Russian Federation Andrei Kartapolov, who noted that his department “will be ready to further respond if necessary.”
And these were not empty words, since there are two Russian bases in the region. Thus, the largest military facility outside the Russian Federation is located in Tajikistan - the 201st RVB, as well as the Kant airbase in Kyrgyzstan. Only at the 201st military base, located in Dushanbe and Bokhtar, there are large motorized rifle, tank, artillery, reconnaissance units and various auxiliary units that could play the role of a peacemaker in the event of a conflict developing.
In this situation, Russia again acted as a peacemaker, cooling the heads of national politicians who use populism and blame each other for the beginning of the conflict. As a result, on the morning of April 30, the head of the State Committee for National Security of Tajikistan, Saimumin Yatimov, and the plenipotentiary representative of the Kyrgyz government in the Batken region, Omurbek Suvanaliev, signed the text of a joint statement on ending the clashes and on the withdrawal of troops from the border.
Tajik troops were immediately withdrawn from the border Kyrgyz villages, and local authorities of two regions of neighboring states also began to resolve the conflict.
“Negotiations were held between the government plenipotentiary representative in the Batken region and the head of the Sughd region of the Republic of Tatarstan Rajobba Akhmadzoda. Both sides have created a commission to stabilize the situation,” the embassy said.
As a result of the agreements, traffic along the Osh-Batken-Isfana highway was reopened, and the border guards of both countries finally withdrew military forces. However, despite the conciliatory reports, the firefight stopped only in the evening of April 30, and residents of a number of other Kyrgyz villages in the Leilek district of the Batken region told the media that the atrocities of the Tajik military continued after the official ceasefire.
Thus, residents of the villages of Arka-1, Arka-2, Dostuk and Zhashtyk appealed through journalists to the President of the Kyrgyz Republic Sadyr Japarov with a call to stop violence and robbery of property.
“We, mothers, women of the Leilek region, ask the authorities not to leave us alone. Dear President Sadyr Nurgozhoevich, help us! The military of another country tramples us like cattle. Our houses are being burned and looted. They stole our cattle. Why don't our authorities take action? Today our military arrived in the village, but they are inactive. Explain to us...” Zulaika Turdueva, chairman of the women’s council of the Zhany-Zher village council, addressed the head of state.
That is, this suggests that it was the Tajik military that turned out to be the most prepared for an armed conflict, who inflicted more damage on the Kyrgyz side by using mortars and quickly occupying the adjacent Kyrgyz villages. These facts also confirm that a real, not imaginary, settlement is still far away, and clashes between residents can continue at any moment.
High-ranking officials also use militant patriotic rhetoric, declaring that they will not give up an inch of land to each other, which also fuels the nationalist wave within the republics. In particular, on the morning of April 30, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Tajikistan, Sirojiddin Mukhriddin, during negotiations with his Kyrgyz counterpart, noted that “at the same time, Tajikistan will never give up the lands that originally and rightfully belong to it.”
True, yesterday the President of the Kyrgyz Republic Sadyr Japarov spoke in the same spirit, but then abruptly changed his tone to peacekeeping notes. On Friday he released a new pacifist statement, saying: “They say war is easy to start but hard to stop. Peace and tranquility are above all. I think the Tajik people, who survived the civil war, understand this very well.”
He then remembered that the two peoples belonged to the Muslim faith and noted that the conflict began in the holy month of Ramadan: “It is also not good that Muslim peoples went against each other in Ramadan. Therefore, I call on all parties for peace.”
On the same day, following his message, he held telephone conversations with the President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon about holding a summit in the second half of May.
At the same time, during the conversation, the heads of state, judging by the press services, did not fail to confirm the territorial integrity of their countries, and also agreed to resume the work of the border demarcation commission.
Let us recall that the activities of the joint commission were suddenly suspended in March of this year and at the moment there are still 70 disputed areas along the remaining 500 kilometers of the common border.
It seems that on April 29 and 30 the parties tested each other by force in order to push through their terms and gain more advantageous positions in certain areas, in order to ultimately report to their public about the effective protection of national interests. After all, what prevented the parties from continuing demarcation work? It seems that both Bishkek and Dushanbe needed a “small victorious war” on the border in order to improve their image against the backdrop of economic failure and falling living standards of the population.
Now we can come to the conclusion that as a result of the clashes, Kyrgyzstan is currently weaker than its opponent, which explains the peacekeeping rhetoric of Sadyr Japarov. Although only a couple of months ago he contemptuously offered the Tajiks to exchange their enclaves for lifeless mountain ranges in the south of the republic. This failure of Bishkek’s defensive measures, as well as the impasse in the negotiation process on the disputed territories in general, was also influenced by the change of power as a result of the next “color revolution”.
Such bloody events on the border of two official allies are also a wake-up call for the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), since the participating countries, according to the agreement, do not have the right to use weapons against each other. This suggests that it is necessary to strengthen the structure of the defensive bloc and begin the process of negotiations at this level together with other members and under the auspices of Russia in order to prevent the development of a crisis within the CSTO.
If we consider the deeper objective reasons for what is happening, they lie in the socio-economic plane of the degradation of the region and specifically the Fergana Valley after the collapse of the USSR, when a lot of similar contradictions and disputes arose over land, water resources, road sections and hydraulic structures. After all, all industry disappeared in the same Batken region of Kyrgyzstan or the neighboring Sughd region of Tajikistan, and farming remained the only way of survival for millions of residents of the region with a high birth rate and unemployment.
That is why there is such a fierce struggle for individual pillars, for the water distribution station “Golovnoy” of the Tortkul reservoir, for tiny pieces of territory that were not previously considered even as a dispute under administrative boundaries 30 years ago. And now more than one generation has grown up, brought up in a nationalistic aggressive spirit, and, accordingly, the current ceasefire cannot be considered as the end of a conflict that will only develop over time.
And again, this suggests that Russia must return to this region again in the full sense of the word, since local kings and degrading state entities are capable of organizing a bloodbath for each other to the delight of the West and the neighboring mujahideen from Afghanistan.
We are talking about accelerating and deepening integration processes, when a unified water-energy system will be recreated, production will be restored, and the borders will become nominal. If this does not happen, Central Asia will face a real disaster.
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