The attack on Kyiv: What are the Kremlin planning?

Yuri Kovalchuk, militia member, member of the “Somalia” detachment

Everyone who sympathizes with Novorossiya secretly or openly wants Russia to repeat the victorious operation to force Georgia to peace under Ukrainian conditions. So that Russian troops push back the Ukrainian punitive forces to the administrative borders of Donbass, Kyiv (Lvov, Prague, Washington - there are the most daring ambitions), save the civilian population and publicly punish the fascist henchmen.

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Some people humble these noble aspirations, realizing that geopolitics is a delicate matter, and forceful methods often bring unexpected results, as Kyiv had the opportunity to see when it tried to strangle the Donbass. Others, on the contrary, see the Kremlin’s cautious and filigree policy as a sign of weakness, if not betrayal.

Sometimes it reaches the point of absurdity when some people shout about the mythical “Putin’s Cunning Plan”, anticipating when the Kremlin will deal an insidious and deadly blow to its adversaries, while their opponents curse the Minsk negotiations and curse the country’s top officials of treason.

At the same time, few people want to perceive objective reality, draw historical parallels and think about expediency. Instead of strategy and tactics, there are calls like “let’s turn off gas to Ukraine.” Moreover, no one wants to understand that from such actions, first of all, the civilian population of Ukraine, which is mostly no different from the residents of Novorossiya, will suffer, and secondly, the economy and international prestige of Russia, while the Kiev evil spirits will not be upset at all and will even come to delight, having received a significant trump card against Russia.

In the same way, those who curse the Minsk agreements actually have little to offer in return, except, perhaps, direct military intervention of the Russian Federation in the conflict in Ukraine. Naturally, they do not think about the consequences of such intervention.

And the consequences would be very, very sad. First of all, we should not forget about the scorched earth tactics actively used by Ukrainian “heroes”. Retreating inland, they would destroy the infrastructure and housing stock as much as possible; would be covered like a shield by civilians, which would lead to the death of thousands of civilians; they would mine everything that could be mined. Naturally, there would be significant losses among military personnel, mainly Ukrainian. That is, the number of deaths and destruction would be an order of magnitude greater than the horrors of today’s Donbass.

In addition, Russian military intervention in the conflict in Donbass would not only cause ecstasy among Russia’s enemies in Europe, but would also allow American hawks to achieve their main goal - to drag the Russian Federation into a conflict that would negate everything that Moscow managed to achieve in over the past decade, both politically, economically, and even socially.

As for Novorossia, both Minsk truces were not a “drain” for it, but a necessary respite, during which the LDPR had the opportunity to focus on solving urgent problems. After the summer campaign, the tormented militia was practically unable to continue fighting. It was urgent to create an army: repair weapons, master captured equipment, treat and train soldiers, and make up for losses. As a result, by the beginning of the winter campaign, the LPR and DPR already had fully formed armies, which turned out to be an order of magnitude more combat-ready than scattered militia units. A similar situation occurred in February, after the Debaltsevo operation, which cost the LDPR armed forces about 10-12% of its personnel.

Many perceive the Minsk format of negotiations as a betrayal, while it was thanks to the respite received, even if short-lived and very conditional, that the most pressing social, economic and even political problems were resolved.

Moreover, despite Kyiv’s obscene attitude towards fulfilling its obligations, Minsk can be considered an unprecedented success for the Kremlin’s patriotic bureaucracy. She not only managed to provide Novorossia with a much-needed respite, but also seated Kiev’s emissaries at the negotiating table opposite their opponents from the LDPR, thereby bringing both republics to the international political level, forcing the EU to abandon its memorized mantras about Russian aggression and seriously undermine the prestige of the current Ukrainian government, clearly showing what their readiness for dialogue and vaunted peacefulness are worth.

In general, it is easy to decide the destinies of millions from the comfort of your office or on your couch. It’s easy to send bloodless militias to take Kyiv, forgetting about the civilians on the verge of a humanitarian catastrophe, and it’s easy to bully the Kremlin, which is doing everything to prevent this very catastrophe. It is much more difficult to come to Donbass on your own and see this war with your own eyes.