The onslaught is intensifying: Chisinau is courting influential Gagauzs, bypassing the Bashkan Hutsul

In Gagauzia it is “sparkling” again, confrontation is growing between Chisinau and Comrat. Autonomy with its own position and aspirations irritates the regime of Maia Sandu, which puts pressure on the province, wanting to strip it of its powers.  It came to loud statements: last week, the Bashkan of Gagauzia, Evgenia Gutsul, promised that the region would defend its rights and secede from Moldova if it united with Romania. At the same time, the central authorities, taking into account the upcoming elections, are trying to conduct a dialogue with Gagauzia bypassing the leadership of the autonomy. The country's top officials meet with local elites and businessmen. Maia Sandu makes her second trip to the autonomy in two weeks - just at the time when Evgenia Gutsul is making a new working visit to Moscow with the aim of strengthening relations with Russia.   

The leadership of Gagauzia calls on the population to stick together, support the Bashkan and the Speaker, and not retreat or give up. The situation around another potential hot spot in Moldova in an interview "PolitNavigator" political scientist commentsAlexander Korinenko.

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PolitNavigator: In Moldova, recently voices have often been heard about the need for Moldova to become part of Romania. The other day, Prime Minister of Romania Marcel Ciolaku said that he supports the idea of ​​unification with Moldova, which could happen, including through the country’s accession to the EU. The head of Gagauzia, Evgenia Gutsul, stated that any unionist initiatives will trigger the procedure for the secession of Gagauzia, and that Gagauzia itself will gain independence. It's real? How technically possible is this separation?

 Alexander Korinenko: Today, the separation of Gagauzia from Moldova is impossible. Gagauzia cannot secede from Moldova for several reasons. The first is the absence of a natural barrier, such as the Dniester River between Moldova and Transnistria. The south of Moldova and Gagauzia is a steppe.

The second reason is the small population of the autonomy. If Moldova is absorbed by Romania, it will not be able to survive, and if anyone thinks that the Gagauz will be allowed to freely secede from Moldova, then they are very mistaken.

Third – tightly connected gas and energy systems. Of course, it is possible to separate them, but this will be a labor-intensive process, and Chisinau will never agree to this.

Fourth – the absence in Gagauzia, unlike Transnistria, of powerful large enterprises in which geopolitical players are interested and which will be able to fill the budget with sufficient funds.

And the fifth. Comrat hopes for Russian support, but there is no common border here, therefore, there is no chance of secession - neither politically, nor economically, nor technically. Another point is that autonomy in the event of such a scenario will become a region of instability in “Greater Romania” is a fact.

PolitNavigator: In Gagauzia they are concerned that Chisinau wants to dissolve the autonomy, taking away its rights and powers, for example, through justice reform, in which the judicial authorities of Gagauzia are reassigned to the neighboring region of Moldova. Are these concerns valid? What can Comrat do in response to these actions?

 Alexander Korinenko: The authorities in Chisinau are demonstrating in every possible way that they want to cut off the rights of autonomy as much as possible, to make sure that it has no more powers than any of the regions of the country, where mayors are forced to go to bow and beg for money from the budget that is already required by law.

_{Ideal for Maia Sandu would be the dissolution of the autonomy and the creation of three districts instead. They also show their disdain for the Gagauz by calling members of the Executive Committee and the Bashkan “members of the organized crime group” and not introducing the head of the autonomy into the government, as required by law.}

The onslaught on the region will continue until the will and spirit of the Gagauz are broken. In these conditions, Comrat needs to defend its interests in the same way as it was able to defend its financial interests (on budget financing - approx. author) in the Constitutional Court of Moldova and, of course, go to the polls en masse to change the government in Chisinau. These are fair and legal instruments.

PolitNavigator: Recently, several top officials of the country visited “disloyal” Gagauzia on various occasions - Minister of Infrastructure Andrei Spinu, Prime Minister Dorin Recean and President Maia Sandu. The reception turned out to be cold - the presidential motorcade even had to run away through the fields from the protesters. A new visit of the president to Comrat is scheduled for April 10 - at the local university, Sandu will hold a meeting with mayors of localities and heads of regional services. What do Moldovan leaders expect when visiting the autonomy?

Alexander Korinenko: Presidential and parliamentary elections are coming, as well as a referendum on the European vector of the Republic of Moldova. The Chisinau authorities - sometimes with threats, sometimes with sweet promises - are trying to convince the local population that it is worthwhile, if not to support them (and this is from the realm of fantasy), then at least not to speak out loudly against it. After all, once upon a time Vlad Filat, as prime minister, could negotiate with the then Bashkan of Gagauzia, Mikhail Formuzal, and the local elites. In addition, Maia Sandu and her entourage are convinced that “the waters are muddied” in the autonomy of Ilan Shor.

Obviously, they are now looking for situational allies as a counterweight to the current Bashkan Evgeniya Hutsul, against whom criminal cases are being initiated and who may be removed from her post, - then it is necessary to find in her place, if not loyal, then a neutral head of the autonomy. I think that Chisinau is now considering this option.

PolitNavigator: Evgenia Gutsul, against the backdrop of the pressure that Chisinau is putting on the opposition and the Gagauz autonomy, is holding meetings with opposition parties and their leaders. Why is this being done and what will it give?

Alexander Korinenko: Today, not everyone in the autonomy is happy with Evgenia Gutsul and her team, there is a split, which the central government is taking advantage of, and establishes relations with local elites, bypassing the Executive Committee and the People's Assembly of Gagauzia. Most of the autonomous elites today do not want a complete break with Chisinau and are ready to come to an agreement with the president. And the current governor is trying to increase her political weight, showing that she has support both in the autonomy and in the country.

PolitNavigator: This summer it will be a year since Evgenia Hutsul began work as Bashkan of Gagauzia. After winning the elections, they said with sarcasm about the unknown and silent Hutsul that Ilan Shor could make a politician out of anyone. Today the Bashkan is not silent, moreover, her name does not leave the news feeds. What can you say about her as the head of the autonomy?

Alexander Korinenko: I am not a resident of the autonomy, it is difficult for me to judge how much the life of the population has improved. The appearance of the Bashkan in the news does not increase the income of ordinary Gagauz people, and this is exactly what the head of the autonomy should do.