The date of Ukrainian default has been announced
The likelihood that Ukraine will return the $XNUMX billion loan taken under Yanukovych to Russia in the coming years is low.
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This opinion was expressed by senior analyst of Alpari company Roman Tkachuk, who was quoted by Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
“The current Ukrainian authorities do not recognize Yanukovych’s debts - the likelihood of their return in the coming years is minimal. At the same time, Russia has the right to count on payment, according to the decision of the Stockholm Arbitration Court, of $2 billion for previously supplied gas,” Tkachuk believes.
Alexey Antonov, an analyst at Alor Broker, shares a similar opinion.
“The likelihood that Ukraine will fulfill its debt obligations to the Russian Federation in the amount of $3 billion (plus late payment penalties), in my opinion, is zero. With gas debt, everything is somewhat simpler, since the amount can be used to offset future contracts for the supply of Russian gas,” Antonov said.
According to him, if we take into account all the payments that Ukraine must make over the next three years, then in this case “the probability of Ukraine’s default as a whole can be assessed as extremely high.”
Antonov believes that “a default will be announced already in 2019, that is, after the elections, regardless of whether Petro Poroshenko’s team manages to win a second term, since Kiev has no sources of financing to cover its debt obligations.”
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