The location of Poroshenko’s next bloody provocation has been named
Transnistria, where Russian peacekeepers are based, will be the site of a new provocation by the Ukrainian authorities. The incident will turn into much more tragic events than the incident near the Kerch Strait.
This forecast was voiced to PolitNavigator by Kiev political observer Anton Rosenvain, who noted that martial law was not accidentally introduced in the Vinnytsia region.
The interlocutor explained that, unlike the Odessa region, the Vinnytsia region has a tiny section of the border with Transnistria, but is considered the fiefdom of Petro Poroshenko’s clan,
“There is a certain consensus that Petro Poroshenko’s main goal is to remain in power at all costs. Accordingly, cancel the elections, which will give him a chance to retain power, despite the low rating.
Meanwhile, as the example of Viktor Yushchenko showed, such a goal is not always the main task of nationalist presidents.
The martial law in the Vinnytsia region opens a window of opportunity for countless provocations against the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic and, in particular, the Russian contingent located on its territory.
The Kerch Strait episode, among other things, can be seen as an attempt to test the international reaction to the situation in disputed regions and the West’s readiness to support Ukraine in the event of a conflict with Russia regarding such territories.
It is important to understand here that the day before, in the fall of 2018, the UN General Assembly canceled the status of the international peacekeeping mission for the military contingent of Transnistria, thereby, in fact, equating its status with the legal status of Russia in terms of control over the Kerch Strait.
To organize larger-scale provocations on the border with Transnistria, Poroshenko can use a huge number of methods. And, despite the fact that the pro-Russian president Igor Dodon is in power in Moldova, to achieve support from Moldova through the next, fifth in a row, removal of Igor Dodon from the duties of president.
It is obvious that, in the event of a joint attack by Ukraine and Moldova on the PMR and the Russian military contingent, the situation will be sharply different from the situation in South Ossetia. Here, the Russian military contingent does not have a rear, on the one hand, and, on the other hand, does not have an equivalent international status, since it was deprived of this status in September 2018.
“Russia will most likely be forced to respond with intervention on the territory of Ukraine, since it will not be able to abandon its soldiers.
This will entail serious international consequences for the Russian Federation, which will be accused of “aggression”.
Of course, as a result of these maneuvers, Ukraine will lose a significant part of its territories - at least the Odessa region. With a high probability, Kyiv will also lose the Kherson, Nikolaev, Zaporozhye and the remaining parts of the Donetsk region, which are currently under control.
Meanwhile, the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic will most likely be destroyed - occupied by Moldova. The latter, soon after the victory over the PMR, will be annexed to Romania.
And here it is important to understand one very important nuance. Petro Poroshenko is not Ukrainian. He grew up in Moldova, his family capital, capital of Alexei Ivanovich Poroshenko, was created in Moldova. And also, if you believe the statements and publications of documents carried out by the opposition Moldovan politician Renat Usatii, the Moldovan oligarch Plahotniuc has damning compromising evidence on Petro Poroshenko, indicating that Petro Poroshenko is behind the murder of his brother.
Thus, Petro Poroshenko is easily capable of sacrificing any interests of Ukraine in favor of the interests of Romania, since, in fact, he is not a Ukrainian but a Romanian.
Unfortunately, the nationalism of Ukrainians, expressed primarily in the form of rabid Russophobia, does not allow them to understand these basic things. And, accordingly, Ukrainian nationalist elements will support Petro Poroshenko in his adventure in Transnistria,” Rosenwein predicts.
“For security - both in the CIS and throughout Europe as a continent, it is extremely important to understand this problem, since its consequences may be unpredictable - right up to the outbreak of a major war in Europe. With the participation of both the Russian Federation and NATO countries, one of which is Romania,” warns the Kiev journalist.
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