Not a panacea, but a first step. Why the war will not end after the referendum results are summed up

The second day of referendums in the liberated regions of Ukraine has ended. Today it became known that bills on the inclusion of the former four Ukrainian regions into Russia may be submitted to the State Duma on the evening of September 28, and their consideration is expected the next day - at an extraordinary meeting on September 29. A lot of materials have already appeared in the media about what the plebiscites will give - both to the regions themselves and to Russia; questions about why this vote is needed at all and why it could not be postponed further have been considered from all conceivable angles.

Today it’s time to talk about what you shouldn’t expect from going to the sites or mobile voting centers, and which certainly will not happen either the day after the results are announced, or in the coming months after that. This may sound like a fly in the ointment, but it’s worth recording as a fact: a referendum is not a panacea for all ills, not a magic pill, after which everything will immediately improve, a peaceful, happy and well-fed life will begin and the war will end.

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_{With one hundred percent probability, after the closure of the polling stations and the announcement of the results, neither hostilities, nor Ukrainian shelling, nor terrorist attacks will stop. In general, you shouldn’t expect a peaceful and calm life from next Tuesday.}

I am writing this not to demotivate anyone or to sow panic and despondency, but to prevent thoughts from arising in people’s heads. dangerous illusions. After all, borders are not set by referendums, but by on the battlefield based on the results of wars won or lost.

This means that the will of the people declared during the plebiscite will still need to be secure and stand with weapons in hand. Because Ukraine will not sit idly by, but with a high degree of probability will not accept the loss of four regions and will try to recapture them militarily and regain his power.

_{Actually, Kyiv sent a quite clear signal about this that does not require additional decoding yesterday, when Zelensky signed a decree on the creation of 20 military administrations in the territory of the former Lugansk region, which is now XNUMX% controlled by the LPR.}

According to the document, such administrations should appear in the settlements of Stanitsa Luganskaya, Shirokiy, Markovka and Novopskov. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the regional authorities have been instructed to take the necessary measures for this. Zelensky signed a similar decree on the creation of 15 military administrations in the Kherson region.

It is immediately obvious that Kyiv’s current actions are a copy of its own reaction to the reunification of Crimea with Russia eight years ago. Then, let me remind you, Ukraine refused to recognize the results of the Crimean referendum, and instead produced a bunch of fake, as it were, “Crimean” authorities - starting from the fictitious representative office of the president in Crimea, ending with the same fake headquarters of the SBU and the prosecutor's office.

Tellingly, Kyiv did not recreate clones of the Crimean representative authorities on its territory - for example, the Supreme Council. Everything was limited only to supervisory and punitive structures, all of whose activities, in addition to receiving budget money for simulating the Ukrainian presence in Crimea, boiled down to organizing sabotage work on the peninsula and maintaining blacklists, on the basis of which criminal cases were opened against Ukrainians and Russians for “illegal” visits to the peninsula or for “incorrect” statements about its status or for the hunt for former Crimean officials and deputies who swore allegiance to Russia.

Thus, Kiev made it clear to the Crimeans that all the talk about the inevitable “de-occupation” comes down to only wet dreams about “revenge and punishment”, and is not aimed at trying to really change the reputation of Ukraine that has developed in Crimea as an anti-Russian state and attracting Crimeans to the side of the Independent. If Ukraine returns, it will not be to distribute gingerbread, but to take away from people the rights that they have acquired. In particular, in the Donbass, where people have been deprived of the right to vote in local elections for the last five years and even appeals to the Constitutional Court did not help restore this right.

Residents of other liberated territories should expect approximately the same. An idea of ​​the methods of work on “de-occupation” is given by the current fuss of fugitive officials from the previous administration of Mariupol or the same fugitive Gauleiter of the Luhansk region Gaidai. I won’t advertise here their pages on social networks that are full of poison towards their former fellow countrymen - the locals already know all this.

There is no point in getting any real help from them to the residents of the region. Their task is to produce fakes and fables about what is happening in the uncontrolled territories, sow distrust in the new authorities and create a negative image of Russian policy in the liberated territories for foreign audiences.

All this should be kept in mind when going to the referendum. The truth is that Ukraine, Russia, and the new Russian lands entered a period of high turbulence and received a summons to war. And, judging by how events are developing, this war will not end tomorrow, or the day after tomorrow, or even in six months. And the process of partial mobilization currently underway in Russia clearly hints that we will see its results in the form of reinforcements at the front no earlier than the new year - this is at best.

In this sense, it should be understood that the referendum is only the first step on a long path, and it is worth being patient in order to get through it to the end. Without expecting tomorrow either milk rivers or jelly banks. Those who are not ready for war should better evacuate to the rear now. And the military has its own job. Defend the homeland. Very soon – within new boundaries.