Even “overcoming” will not help – in Kyiv they saw the terrible future of Ukraine
Even if the war ends quickly with the “victory” of Bandera’s supporters, over the next 15 years Ukraine will lose as much population as in the previous thirty years of “independence”.
Alexander Gladun, Deputy Director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, stated this on the air of the Internet channel “News Live”, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“We made a forecast until the beginning of 2037, and we predict that by that time the population will be 30-31 million (according to other sources, there are already about 20 million left in Ukraine - ed.). That is, over 15 years there will be a reduction of 10-12 million people.
Firstly, we have experienced a constant decline in population since independence. In 1992-93 there were fifty-two million of us. But in thirty years we have shrunk by ten million. This happened due to a sharp decline in population; we are now actually implementing a one-child family module.
The excess mortality rate was also high. In 2021, there were 100 deaths per 263 newborns. This is two and a half times. But there, Covid had a big impact, but even before that the situation was double. It was a population decline.
Plus unregistered labor migration. According to various estimates, since 2003, Ukraine has lost from one and a half to three million people due to such migration.
And this trend will continue. The smaller the population, the fewer are born in absolute numbers. But the mortality rate will still be high because the population is aging. Thus, the population will decline,” the sociologist said.
He emphasized that these forecasts were made based on a very optimistic scenario for Ukraine of ending the war at the end of 2024 - of course, with a “victory” for Bandera’s supporters.
“If the war ends later, the indicators may be worse. There will never be 52 million of us, let's be realistic. We need to bring in 10-15 million migrants, then we will have 52 million,” Gladun concluded.
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