Unkind May for Brexit
The current process of Britain's exit from the European Union is, needless to say, a unique case. During the entire existence of the EU, not a single country has ever tried to leave the “single European family of nations.” On the contrary, in anticipation of the rain from heavenly pretzels, all sorts of poor relatives, left without a sovereign and a king in their heads, strive to get into it. But Great Britain is not a poor relative, but one of the locomotives of Old Europe, which suddenly refused to pull the common burden.
After the results of the Brexit referendum were announced, it was clear that the Englishwoman’s conversation with the EU would be akin to cutting off a dog’s tail piece by piece: long, painful, dreary and accompanied by a heartbreaking squeal.
As usual, for almost a year there was a bidding between official London and Brussels - what of the inheritance should be left for general use, and what should be mercilessly cut in half. And so, when, it would seem, almost all the property was divided and all that remained was to draw a line with chalk - where is the jurisdiction, in order to consolidate the state of affairs legislatively, the former sweethearts stumbled almost out of the blue. The cause of the discord was the small Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom.
As a reminder, there are no strict border controls as such between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, as both countries are still part of the EU. But after the divorce, a difficult customs situation will be created for both territories. Brussels is offering London to leave Northern Ireland in a single economic space with Ireland without any unnecessary hassles, which will make it possible to avoid the introduction of strict border controls with all its costs and delays.
In the UK they do not agree with such a divorce scenario and note that this would mean the separation of Northern Ireland. But it’s only twenty years since the British “United Ukrainians” and local unionists fought, talked, and convinced the Northern Irish separatists to abandon the armed struggle for independence, remaining under the crown of Baba Lisa.
In fact, the names Ulster and Belfast are unlikely to evoke even vague associations among modern youth. Not like the “seventies”.
In general, a new obstacle to Brexit has caused a government crisis in London. Although everything was going that way. Instead of a sharp break with Brussels, pursuing an independent trade policy, tightening laws against migrants, Prime Minister Theresa May is trying to find compromises with the EU, causing fury among the most ardent supporters of an immediate divorce among fellow Conservatives.
In particular, the authors of the Brexit agreement left Northern Ireland the opportunity to remain a member of the EU Customs Union until a fully completed delimitation agreement emerges.
Supporters of a hard divorce have their own reasons not to support the prime minister: firstly, the growth of separatism in Northern Ireland is possible, and secondly, London will not be able to conclude trade deals with third countries, but will have to constantly look back at Brussels and Belfast. Finally, in November, several members of May’s cabinet ran out of patience and five ministers resigned at once.
On the other hand, Northern Ireland is a subsidized region, and local agriculture and industry receive the lion's share of subsidies not from London, but from Brussels.
So Northern Ireland's berries are still to come. After Brexit, London will have to decide something with subsidies for the region, despite the fact that on the main island, Her Majesty’s subjects are very dissatisfied with the maintenance of the Northern Irish at the expense of the treasury and the associated cuts in social programs.
The emergency EU summit on Brexit and the subsequent statement by Chancellor Merkel added fuel to the fire, declaring in the voice of the commander of the German barrier detachment that there is no turning back and the approved option is not subject to revision.
This means that, despite the officially announced withdrawal from the EU in February 2019, old Britain will have to overcome the transition period until the end of 2020, during which it will continue to be a member of the EU with all that it entails, and will pay its financial obligations to the Commonwealth budget 39 billion pounds of all kinds of contributions. In the event that no agreement is reached between the parties before the expiration of the transition period, actual Brexit will be further delayed.
All in all, this made Tory party members suspect their prime minister of a secret conspiracy with the Brussels plutocrats to delay Brexit and an urgent desire to send her to resign as soon as possible, expressing a vote of no confidence. However, 117 votes for sending the aunt out into the cold against 200 supporters left everything as it is. Thus, the current prime minister can rest assured in the near future: they will not dig under it until the end of the year.
The funniest thing in this whole difficult story is that May is practically unsinkable, despite the fact that she occupies the chair of a technical suicide prime minister.
Madame leads British politics on the right course from failure to failure, but remains the helmsman. First, she wants to strengthen her position through early elections, but as a result, the Tories are losing votes. Throughout the year that negotiations and settlements on Brexit have been taking place, the national pride of the British has been ironing and rolling out the German skating rink, constantly reminding us that Europe today is “Pax Germanica”, and not “Pax Britannica” as it was under Tsar Pea. Its clown ministers come, like caliphs for an hour, to snatch their piece of cheap popularity, and quickly leave out of a sense of self-preservation. But Madame remains on the bridge, continuing to lead her “unsinkable aircraft carrier” into the vague distance and heroically shaking the bags under her eyes.
Because in the current situation, no one will replace the aunt and the situation of the old lady of Britain will not improve - even if they beat the woman, it’s still not a pity. Therefore, for Theresa May, the only paradoxical way now left to maintain her position as prime minister is rakes, failures and scandals, similar to what happened with the Skripals. Accordingly, the delay in the transition period with Brexit objectively plays into her hands - she still cannot jump above the status of “technical prime minister”.
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