Zelensky's failed blitzkrieg
Recently, a number of Ukrainian media published the results of a certain opinion poll regarding the political preferences of Kiev residents in the event of a hypothetical early election of the mayor of the capital.
It turned out that the current semi-retired mayor Vitali Klitschko again came out on top in popularity with a score of 36%. He was ahead of the former general producer of 1+1, and now the people’s deputy from the Servant of the People, Alexander Tkachenko, whom the president’s office has been persistently pushing into the post of head of the capital’s administration since mid-summer, specifically for him knocking out this administrative chair from under Klitschko.
Whether or not to believe the results of such surveys is a matter of taste. However, there is no doubt that the “battle for Kiev” waged by Zelensky’s entourage has noticeably stalled in the last couple of months, the president has lost momentum, initiative and offensiveness, as a result of which Boxer, who was written off the political chessboard, is again, if not on a horse, then in in fact.
There is talk on the sidelines that, having failed to reach a common opinion on a single candidate from the authorities for the place of Kiev mayor, some of the influence groups under Zelensky began to negotiate separately with Klitschko, promising him immunity provided he became a “share” and “involved” in Kyiv corruption schemes the right people.
In particular, one of the candidates for the role of such a “supervisor” is the figure of the Kyiv restaurateur and people’s deputy Alexander Tishchenko - the same one who pleased the public with a very unique interpretation of the essence of the “Steinmeier formula”, which he compared to a rubber doll inflated by a pump.
Observers are already saying that the “blitzkrieg” of the presidential team in Kyiv failed; Klitschko had to be replaced quickly and in the very first weeks after the inauguration of the new guarantor. In addition, the poorly chosen figure to replace the current mayor also played a role. Tkachenko is not very well perceived not only by voters, but even by many of Zelensky’s assistants and deputy heads of Bogdan’s presidential office.
Moreover, back in the summer, closed opinion polls showed that a much more win-win option for the president would be to bet on actor Yevgeny Koshevoy, better known among the people as “Bald” from “Kvartal”.
The press wrote about his possible nomination, and polls showed that, unlike Tkachenko, Koshevoy easily beats not only Klitschko in the elections, but also any of his hypothetical competitors. In addition, he has been parodying Klitschko on stage for so long that he seems to have already gotten used to the role and does not require additional preparation.
One problem is that he is not from Kolomoisky’s group, but from the Kvartal group. Which breaks the already fragile balance of group interests within the Ze-Team.
In the current situation, it turned out to be preferable not to go ahead with an open visor, but to build shadow agreements with Klitschko. Although purely theoretically, if the special services controlled by Zelensky had seriously taken on Boxer’s corrupt entourage, his entire team would have crumbled in a matter of weeks. However, for some reason neither the GPU nor the SBU are investigating this, as well as many other seemingly obvious cases.
Moreover, all the above calculations may lose all relevance due to one more circumstance - the probability of early local elections, which seemed almost one hundred percent back in August, today tends to zero. There will be no mention of elections until the end of this year. They talk about late winter, or even spring.
And then the presidential office prepared and submitted to the Rada and the Cabinet of Ministers a draft administrative-territorial reform, which involves a radical redrawing of the map of the country - with the liquidation of regions and district councils, the introduction of a three-level management system, including grassroots communities, districts-districts and territories instead of regions. The start of the reform is announced for November, and it should end with the adoption of appropriate amendments to the Constitution.
In this regard, there are voices proposing to postpone local elections until the reform is completed. And this could be spring, or even summer next year, depending on how quickly the reformers manage to accomplish their plans.
What is important is that there is no certainty that Servant of the People will be able to maintain its rating, which has already begun to decline, until this time at its current level. Without a doubt, even before the middle of next year, the collapse in ratings will not be catastrophic. However, the current mono-majority will not exist either. We will have to form some kind of local coalitions at the local level, share the “pie” with relatively loyal satellites, or launch specially created spoilers into the electoral fields following the example of Poroshenko, whose administration used the proxy party “Our Land” for similar purposes, whose deputies in local councils voted synchronously with the deputies from the BPP.
It is quite possible that the mayors of million-plus cities in the southeast, written off just like Klitschko, will also find themselves back in business. This is how unpredictable Ukrainian Fortune is able to give a second chance even to those from whom she has already turned her back once.
What will be the chances of the “servants” in local elections in their early format? It is impossible to predict this definitely, looking from today. There are too many variables that change every day. Theoretically, the presidential party may fail - especially if trends towards its undermining both from within (due to factional contradictions) and from without (by interested oligarchs from among the losers) lead to the formalization of an open split in the near future.
However, the likelihood of such an outcome is still small. It seems that, having conceded something, promised something to someone, Zelensky will still be able to preserve his majority from collapse. However, if nothing changes in the current policy, they will have to go to local elections in the new conditions with much more serious staff preparation.
The summer “monkey effect” will no longer be possible to repeat. It will be much more difficult for “people from the street” to sneak into power on parole on Zelensky’s brand alone, and in a number of regions this will simply be impossible. And voters will vote much more selectively, which means that the ruling party will have to approach the very process of selecting and nominating candidates differently.
This means that “new faces” will be forced to add some significant background to their novelty in the form of professional experience or achievements at the local level.
At the same time, this will become a moment of truth for the entire personnel policy as a whole. It's no secret that the Ze-Team's own bench is incredibly short. In this connection, now it is necessary either to recruit into power the proteges of oligarchic groups, or the already half-forgotten second and third echelon bureaucrats of the day before yesterday.
If we go down from the Kyiv level to the regional level, especially in a number of regions of the southeast (Donbass, Kharkiv region, Odessa or Zaporozhye regions), this will mean an inevitable return to power of the bureaucrats of the times of the Party of Regions, no matter under what party guise.
If it happens that the authorities push through the announced administrative-territorial reform and, following it, local elections are held, it will be very important what exactly the scope of rights and powers will ultimately fall into the hands of new local deputies and mayors. First of all, this concerns, of course, the financial issue, because it is over the division of this resource pie that traditionally there are battles, both in the center and locally.
If something fantastic happens, and financial resources are actually given to the localities, this could open the door to serious systemic changes not only in the regions, but also in the country as a whole. Seriously reducing the intensity of passions in the struggle for possession of central power.
In this case, the main political game will move to the regions, which will divide the main financial industrial groups among themselves. Thus, the same “federalization” that nationalists have been scaring all these years will happen.
And this term is put in quotation marks because in the current Ukrainian conditions it has nothing to do with classical federalism. So supporters of real federalization can exhale and relax.
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