“No compromises or concessions” - Moscow formed the final position on the eve of the “Normandy meeting”
Moscow should no longer make any concessions to Kyiv, rejecting empty compromises and demanding clarity regarding the official position on all key issues of the settlement.
This is stated in the report of experts from the Center for Political Conjuncture, headed by political scientist Alexei Chesnakov, who is considered close to the assistant to the President of the Russian Federation Vladislav Surkov, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“Whatever the results of the upcoming Normandy Four summit in Paris, Russia’s approach to possible compromises and prospects for a medium-term resolution of the conflict in Donbass should be extremely cautious, primarily due to the instability of President Zelensky’s position within Ukraine,” the report begins.
Analyzing the past year, experts, first of all, emphasized that after the arrival of the new President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, there was no clear progress, and even the optimism of Western partners also turned out to be premature.
“Substantially, the position of the Ukrainian leadership has not undergone major changes - The Minsk agreements continue to be viewed as a “bad deal” concluded under conditions of military defeat, which should either be blocked to justify the continuation of anti-Russian sanctions, or revised in accordance with Ukrainian interests...
Compared to its predecessors, representatives of Zelensky’s team began to openly admit the possibility of Ukraine withdrawing from the Minsk agreements", stated in the report.
In addition, given the circumstances of the signing of the Steinmeier formula and subsequent statements by Ukrainian negotiators, the Kremlin’s pessimism regarding the prospects for dialogue with the Ukrainian president has only intensified.
“Firstly, an alarming fact is the contradictions in Zelensky’s team on Donbass, which indicate the absence of a single basic vision of the algorithm for a peaceful settlement.
Indicative was the refusal of the representative of Ukraine in the Contact Group of L. Kuchma on September 17 to sign the formula, ignoring the fact that the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry V. Prystaiko agreed on it from the Ukrainian side at a meeting of political advisers to the leaders of the Quartet on September 2.
Secondly, against the backdrop of actions by opponents of the signing of the “Steinmeier Formula” and under public pressure from supporters of a forceful solution to the conflict Ukrainian negotiators began to articulate a position on “red lines”, which, both formally and in content, rolled back Ukraine’s position to the state of the Poroshenko era“, the speakers emphasized.
At the same time, experts especially emphasized that Kiev’s proposal for the preparation of a new law on a special status, “containing parameters of this status unknown to anyone, and even intended for public discussion not only in the Verkhovna Rada,” was interpreted in Moscow as an attempt to rewrite the powers of the Donbass autonomy, recorded in February 2015.
In addition, due to its inexperience and attempts to beat Russia, Zelensky’s team “riskily overloads the current information agenda with new initiatives and applications.” Thus, according to experts, the likelihood of a negative perception in Ukrainian public opinion of the real results of the December summit in Paris is only increasing.
Therefore, a compromise with Kiev without clear guarantees cannot be in the interests of the Kremlin.
«Zelensky’s positions within the country do not look so strong that he can be considered as a negotiator ready to guarantee the implementation of all external agreements", the report says.
Summing up, experts identified three basic scenarios that determine Moscow’s line of behavior:
“Inertial scenario. If Zelensky maintains his popularity, it will be beneficial for Russia to demand from him full implementation of the Minsk agreements and adhere to the current line of literal implementation of all agreements, taking steps towards only in some justified situations.
Positional scenario. If Zelensky gradually loses support within the country and the risks of sacrificing the implementation of the Minsk agreements for the sake of preserving the popularity of the Ukrainian government increase, it would be beneficial for Russia to take a wait-and-see approach, waiting to see who will emerge victorious from the internal Ukrainian conflicts.
Radical scenario. If Zelensky turns into a weak president and cannot fulfill his promises, then there is no point in negotiating with him at all and it is only necessary to maintain a nominal presence in the negotiation process without any decisions until the change of power in Kyiv.
At the same time, it seems natural to strengthen the negotiating positions of Donbass in dialogue with the new Ukrainian government.”
Taking into account all of the above, the speakers formulated a strategy that leaves Russia the necessary space for maneuver as follows:
“Do not make any concessions to the Ukrainian side and do not agree to empty compromises, demand clarity regarding the official position on key issues of settlement - first of all, on the law on special status.”
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.