“There was no rebellion”: Pinchuk spoke about Prigozhin’s future
Western intelligence services will blow dust off the founder of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who tried to stage a military mutiny last weekend.
This opinion was expressed in an interview with PolitNavigator by the former head of the DPR MGB Andrei Pinchuk.
At the same time, our interlocutor is not sure that the events that rocked Russia should be called a rebellion.
– Andrei Yuryevich, there are reports that the Americans learned about Prigozhin’s rebellion two weeks before it. Why didn’t our intelligence services know about this?
– Firstly, I am not the head of the CIA and I don’t know what the Americans actually knew. Secondly, I have no confidence that our services did not know about this. I wouldn’t really like to get into the motivations on this topic, but what are the reasons to believe that our intelligence services did not know about this?
There are reasons to assume that either the speed of reaction was different, or they assumed a different scenario of actions on the part of Prigogine, but I have no confidence in believing that our intelligence services did not know this. Why treat our intelligence services so disrespectfully?
– If they knew, then why did they allow it, why couldn’t they prevent this rebellion?
– I think that for this you need to contact the FSB press service and try to get an answer to this question. I am not authorized to act as an official representative of our intelligence services.
- What about the version?
– In order to talk about versions, it is necessary in this case to start not from the middle and not from the end, but to consider this story from the original motives and a real understanding of what happened.
Because, in my deep conviction, now another myth is beginning to form in society, which, to put it mildly, is far from the objective picture.
Therefore, the motivation of the parties depends on what we are talking about - a myth or what actually happened.
– What was Prigozhin’s motivation for the riot?
– Any person who knows Yevgeny Viktorovich personally or indirectly admits that Prigozhin has certain psychological characteristics. One of the elements of these psychological characteristics is what is popularly called “I’m not vindictive, I’m just angry, but I have a good memory.”
You just need to understand how Prigozhin most likely sees the picture associated with his personal participation and the participation of the Wagner PMC in the events. I think this vision is very different from outside observers.
– What then happened in the Wagner PMC paradigm? How did they see what was happening?
“They were a successful paramilitary company that carried out commercial tasks that benefited the interests of the Russian Federation - in Africa, Syria, Libya, Venezuela and other states.
At some point, as is now known, the state turned to them. Moreover, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that, according to information from open channels, I personally addressed Prigozhin Gerasimov as the head of the General Staff, and asked him to take part in the SVO. "Wagner" initially took part in the battles for Popasnaya (LPR).
Thus, Prigozhin was called to a heroic war for the sake of Victory, in which he could gain glory by fulfilling his patriotic duty. In his coordinate system of a patriotic businessman, focused on a specific result, everything was very specific and understandable. He was called to give results, and this result went into the treasury of the common Victory.
Over the course of a year and a half, what did Prigozhin see? First, no one is too much in a hurry for Victory, as Prigogine himself said. The situation turns into a state of ongoing process with an unguaranteed result.
The role of the Wagner PMC in this process, which has lasted for years (as Prigozhin himself said), is not at all obvious. Instead of acting as a shock sprinting fist that produces results in the most important areas, the Wagner PMC became more and more an infantry unit, albeit a special one, but infantry and trench, most importantly, trench.
Moreover - instead of thanking them for this - they turned more and more into those who walk around and beg for something.
This is very strange in Prigogine’s logic. If they called you and asked you to lend a shoulder, for what reasons should you go, beg for ammunition, make excuses, get into squabbles and squabbles. In this sense, he considered himself deceived.
Next, an important aspect is the commercial component. Prigozhin is still a businessman, and in addition to the patriotic component, he still understands that, firstly, he must earn money, and secondly, with this money he must support his army. The current events in the trenches do not present such a possibility, to put it mildly.
Moreover, he understood that after the conflict and squabbles around the capture of Bakhmut and the problem with the trenches, he was being set up to a greater and greater extent.
And the ending of these grievances and problems was the story of the conclusion of the contract. According to the logic of businessman Prigozhin, a pure raider takeover occurred. When he was called, his brainchild was put in roles that they had not initially agreed to put in, and after that they tried to intercept his brainchild through contracts with the Ministry of Defense, leaving it somewhere on the margins.
That is, in this logic he was deceived on a number of points. And they deceived him quite cruelly.
– And what is the way out of this situation in Prigogine’s logic?
– It’s very simple. First, you need to go at maximum speed. Or rather, not like that. Firstly, we need to leave, because since people want to build political capital for themselves, earn money, record some social processes through the SVO, then what does he have to do with all this?
Act as someone's paramilitary tool? What's the point of this? He didn't sign up for this.
Secondly, there are two people who, firstly, personally insulted him, and secondly, insulted him - they deceived him and insulted him. This is Gerasimov and Shoigu.
And thirdly, if we consider the international, commercial, military future, then we must enter at the highest possible positive stakes, with an appropriate image. The capture of Bakhmut was such an image.
Undoubtedly, if the Wagner had been thrown to the front, it would have been thrown into the most hopeless directions, and there is no guarantee that problems with shells, problems with interaction and other difficulties would not arise, well known to those who have at least sometimes visited this war on the front line.
From his point of view, Prigozhin brilliantly completed the tasks associated with a beautiful departure, with the capitalization of his image, and with striking a blow of revenge against his offenders.
In my opinion, there was no rebellion, he did not initially plan any seizure of power. And all the actions that took place were connected with the fact that no one would tell him in the back that he was the XNUMXth, that he abandoned people at the front, and at the same time his glory thundered even more than before, which is what happened. And at the same time his offenders were punished.
He accomplished all three of these tasks brilliantly. Accordingly, those who observed the implementation of this motivation from the outside, as I assume, could also have their own point of view on the correctness or incorrectness of these events.
I do not have any behind-the-scenes or secret information about the motives that motivated all the participants in these processes, but I think that in addition to what we observed on television and on the Internet, each of these parties had their own motivation.
For example, the appearance of the same general Surovikina or general Alekseeva was due to the fact that in this way proactive prevention was carried out so that these two respected generals did not have an “agreement” with Prigozhin, and not in order to somehow persuade Prigozhin. A stopper was simply placed in order to fix certain positions. And with such a complex behind-the-scenes game, each of the public participants and those whom we do not see now could have their own reasons and motives.
– You say that he completed three tasks brilliantly. But others will not agree with you, saying that Prigogine in one fell swoop destroyed the heroic-patriotic legend of “Wagner” in the eyes of the majority of Russian patriots.
- Why did you decide so? What are the reasons to think so?
– PMC “Wagner” is no longer there.
– Wait, on what basis is such a statement born?
– Based on the fact that Prigozhin himself went to Belarus. The second is that those Wagner units that did not take part in this mutiny will sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense and will serve in the Russian army, and not in the Wagner PMC. And where now has the Wagner PMC gone to Belarus with Prigozhin?
– This is the official public version, which is actually not based on anything.
What does “Prigozhin went to Belarus” mean? He didn't go there. He went international. Tomorrow, presidents and leaders of at least two or three dozen different countries will line up to see Prigozhin - Asian, African, Latin American, Central American and, I think, some European.
Because today Prigozhin himself and the agency he heads are the most famous non-state paramilitary brand. And what will it be called? PMC “Wagner”, PMC “Orchestra”, PMC “Company” or, be that as it may, this is Prigozhin’s personal whim.
To say that there is no PMC “Wagner”, well, why suddenly, what is the difference between the current situation of Prigozhin and the PMC “Wagner” from the way he entered into a special military operation? Nothing! They were, in fact, outlaws, and they remained there.
Today, the PMC “Wagner” significantly, in terms of its quantitative composition, exceeds the composition with which Prigozhin entered the North Military District zone. This means that a significant part of the personnel requires constant financial support - salaries, supplies and other huge financial costs.
I think that Prigozhin does not need these costs. These people were recruited by force in order to solve combined arms tasks, primarily in Bakhmut.
Therefore, if 20-30-40 or even 50% of those who were forced to be recruited to solve a combined arms task fall away from the Wagner PMC, then Wagner will not lose anything at all, rather, it will simply minimize the losses and expenses that it is currently spending .
Therefore, we cannot say that Wagner ceased to exist. I think we need to say that “Wagner” has received a new life.
Even before the events with the so-called “rebellion,” there was already talk that Prigozhin was planning to rebrand Wagner, because Wagner was associated with SVO, and this cast a certain shadow on some commercial processes.
And he envisioned a new name, a new brand for external international companies, something like the same PMC “Orchestra”. Also a fairly well-known story. I think we will see something similar. But I think that somewhere it will operate under the Wagner PMC brand.
Assume that he has some losses? What did they say? He has enough people, and at the first whistle there will be even more. I would not be surprised if tomorrow it goes international and all sorts of disillusioned companies from the Northern Military District, including those on the Ukrainian side, form some kind of separate Ukrainian detachment from among those who fought against us on the other side. Why not?
It is a commercial international operation, a private military company. And people from other countries will also stand in line.
Therefore, to assume that he has any losses in personnel is naive.
The main thing is that he has the most famous brand in the world today, and moreover, he has now only strengthened it by showing that he is leaving a position of strength, actually dictating his will to the leaders of several of the world's largest states. Therefore, I don’t really understand what the loss is here.
– Suppose you are the president of a country. Are you, in all seriousness, going to hire a person for service, knowing that he and his PMCs can raise a rebellion and mutiny against him at any moment?
- I’ll be there soon. We can bet some symbolic money that in six months we will see the activity of the Wagner PMC in the most unexpected new countries, even beyond those in which they were before.
Once again they will come running, and with great pleasure. I think that everything depends on the conditions, and I think that there is simply no need to deceive them and act within the corridor of certain possibilities and a certain logic. They will, because it is power, and people always come to power.
– Are you saying this in all seriousness now?
-I just don’t doubt it. If you don’t think so, then this dispute should be put aside and see how the situation develops. I have no doubt that Prigozhin’s image capitalization in the international arena is enormous.
He will, of course, make a profit from this, and he greatly increased and multiplied it, precisely thanks to the events that we call “the rebellion.”
– You know very well that for the West Prigozhin is a terrorist. Imagine that Prigozhin finds himself tomorrow in one of the countries of Africa or Asia. One hundred percent, the Americans will carry out an extermination operation against him, as they did with Bin Laden or with the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
– Western and other intelligence services will blow dust off Prigozhin, because he is the only person who was able to flex his muscles from a position of strength in relation to the Russian leadership.
Therefore, having such a trump card and generally proceeding from its availability and possibility of use is a huge bonus. Therefore, not only will Prigozhin not be touched, he will be provided with maximum favored nation treatment, I have no doubt about it.
– What will be the final goal in this case?
– What is our ultimate goal in all the processes that we observe? We have an ultimate goal here - it gradually turns into the well-known saying “A samurai has no Goal, a samurai has only a Path.” Therefore, what does the “ultimate goal” mean in current stories?
– Not only the West, but also the Russian special services will play against Prigozhin, because for them he is a rebel. Prigozhin and the Wagner PMC are the enemy of France because they squeezed part of French Africa from the French. What, after all these humiliations from the Wagners, Macron and Prigozhin will “blow away the dust”?
It is clear that if Wagner goes somewhere, then one hundred percent they will act against American interests. It would be one thing if he were in Russia and would rebel here, but why blow away dust if he acts in the Philippines or Bali?
– Prigozhin can return to Russia at any time under certain circumstances.
– Do you mean that the Americans will then count on him as a rebel?
“They’re not counting on him specifically.” You must understand that such primitive or childish psychology on the theme that he is against them, therefore he is bad, and we destroy him - it works in a completely non-linear way in international politics and in special issues.
We have a huge number of examples of all kinds of coalitions between those who were considered our enemies just yesterday. If you look carefully, ten years ago all Russian television and media were filled with all sorts of scenarios of our war with Turkey. But everyone has already forgotten about it.
We have a huge number of examples of those who just yesterday or the day before yesterday were considered our enemies - Hezbollah, Taliban and other examples.
In the world, situational alliances - open and secret - do not work according to this logic - you were against me, you infringed on my interests, I will punish you - this works in street fights between boys, but in state, especially in international spheres, it works like this. to another.
Therefore, to believe that somewhere Prigozhin hurt someone’s interests, and therefore now the whole world is up in arms against Prigozhin, is naive.
– You raised the topic “There are no permanent enemies, but there are permanent commercial interests.” Prigogine is a motor guy who holds a grudge. Now he is with Old Man. Or maybe it will happen that the Americans and Ukrainians will make him an offer that he cannot refuse: come to Ukraine, create your own PMC here and fight with the “Putin regime” that offended you? Or is this nonsense?
– I can explain for a long time why I think the way I think, but I don’t see much need for these explanations. I think no, such a scenario is impossible.
– Some believe that sooner or later the Kremlin will again call Prigozhin to the front. Can this happen or not?
- Of course it can. If tomorrow this paradigm of long standstills changes and Operation “Izmor”, as I call it, nevertheless turns into Operation “Victory” with clear goals, with the possibility of political, financial, image, patriotic benefits, which is also important, then of course it is possible.
– Lukashenko has known Prigozhin for twenty years, but why did Old Man take such an initiative, why did he need Prigozhin? How can he use it? Will Prigozhin make an army for him?
– The format of asking such a question assumes that Lukashenko there was some kind of tactics, strategy, and with a conscious goal he somehow inserted himself into this process. I think this is a naive assumption and a conspiracy theory, not based on anything at all.
If you carefully look at Lukashenko’s initiative on all problems, on all tensions, military or near-war, Lukashenko offered himself as a negotiator everywhere in the post-Soviet space, including on the Ukrainian topic.
Because participation as a negotiator sharply increases his legitimacy and his image position in the international arena. He is ready to participate in all matters as a mediator or negotiator.
According to my information, it was not Lukashenko who played the key role in the negotiations with Prigozhin; Lukashenko acted exclusively as a guarantor.
I'll give you an example. When they extradited the leaders of “Azov” and exchanged them for Medvedchuk, then acted as the guarantor of this transaction Erdogan, and these people are still in Turkey in fairly comfortable conditions, but they are in Turkey under the terms of these guarantees.
Was it really Erdogan who acted as the main interested party in this case, or did he have a desire to use the Azov leaders as the basis for his Turkish army? No, of course not.
This is simply an element of some subjectivity in political processes. Also Lukashenko. Thanks to the fact that it identifies itself in such processes, it sharply increases its international political subjectivity.
Since Lukashenko, I remind you, after the last elections, was recognized as an illegitimate head of state at the international level by many countries, such events are a condition for his political stability, his survival.
Therefore, this conspiracy theory on the topic that now Lukashenko, with the help of Wagner, will solve some issues, fight the internal opposition - the Zmagars - I think that this is naive and far from true.
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