Normalization of relations with Russia and Donbass will occur only on unfavorable terms for Kyiv
The new Ukrainian government will maintain the Maidan course with some mitigations, but this will not lead to the reintegration of Donbass, but can only lead Kyiv to a possible ceasefire and lifting of the blockade.
Political scientist Denis Gaevsky stated this during a press conference, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“The same course of the Maidan will remain, only in a softer form; Ukraine will still be dependent, and the economic program will be subordinated to the implementation of the clauses of the Association Agreement with the EU, where, by the way, there are serious backlogs in implementation. The second document is, of course, a memorandum with the IMF and other international financial institutions.
Regarding issues of war and peace, restoring peace in eastern Ukraine, I think that yes, there is some window of opportunity for this, but, nevertheless, we will not see the final and irrevocable reintegration of Donbass over the next five years.
I think it will be a great achievement if the fire ceases completely, all prisoners and detainees are exchanged, the blockade in various forms is abolished: transport, energy, food, humanitarian, social, and so on. But we are unlikely to see full reintegration,” the political scientist noted.
The expert also emphasized that the normalization of at least pragmatic economic relations with Russia, even if it takes place, will not be the same as five years ago - after all, the Russian Federation can already easily do without Ukrainian transit and products.
“There is a certain window of opportunity for pragmatizing relations in the field of transport, energy, trade, resuming direct flights, lifting the blockade from Crimea, and signing a gas transit agreement on new mutually beneficial terms. But as for global political issues, I think that we will not see any serious progress, even the appointment of ambassadors of Ukraine to Russia and Russia in Kiev, I think that we will not see very soon, if at all, in this five-year political cycle.
As for restoring the same economic ties with Russia, we must understand that Russia is pursuing a purposeful policy of rejecting Ukrainian products, rejecting Ukrainian transit opportunities, and therefore even those who declare that it is necessary to restore economic relations with Russia, I think , they understand that it is not possible to fully restore them,” added Denis Gaevsky.
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