The Normandy format is dead, the US and Russia are moving to direct negotiations on Ukraine
After the meetings between Karasin and Nuland, Kerry and Lavrov may meet, and then Putin and Obama. Experts say that Kyiv will obviously also have to enter into dialogue with the DPR and LPR.
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The head of the Russian Presidential Administration Sergei Ivanov announced the transition of negotiations to a new level in an interview with the program “News on Saturday with Sergei Brilev.” “Obviously, they still have a desire to really try to resolve this crisis, internally in Ukraine, through political means,” he said, clarifying that this is not about including US representatives in the Normandy format, but about bilateral Russia-US negotiations.
According to Ivanov, contacts will be built at the level of Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Grigory Karasin and US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland. “Why two-sided? We could do this, supplement the “Normandy format” with another side by involving the United States. But the Normandy format is so fragile now that this step would be simply risky. And in order not to ruin everything, we agreed, agreed together that for now we will coordinate our actions in Ukraine on a bilateral basis,” said the head of the presidential administration.
Director of the Institute of Ukrainian Politics Konstantin Bondarenko said "NG", that the creation of the Karasin-Nuland format indicates preparation for a meeting between Presidents Obama and Putin. “In general, what we are seeing now confirms that the war in Donbass is not a war between Ukraine and the self-proclaimed republics, it is not even a Ukrainian-Russian hybrid war. The confrontation between US satellites and Russian puppets must be resolved at a bilateral level,” the expert said. He noted that no European negotiation format could resolve the situation: “The EU can solve little. This is not their game. They can express concern, calculate economic losses, and put pressure on the direct participants in the conflict. But the way out of the situation lies with those who pull the strings.”
Bondarenko believes that if the situation develops favorably, negotiations between Karasin and Nuland will create the basis for a meeting between Sergei Lavrov and John Kerry, and they, in turn, will develop a position for a conversation between Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama. The most likely outcome of this line, according to the expert, will be external coercion to reach agreements between Kiev and the self-proclaimed republics: “The Ukrainian side will most likely have to sit down at the negotiating table with the leaders of the LPR and DPR to discuss the scope of autonomy in the form of a special status for the region (of course, without the right of veto of Lugansk and Donetsk on decisions of the Ukrainian authorities), as well as to agree on holding local elections on the territory of the republics.”
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