Norwegian economist: Association with the EU means the collapse of Ukrainian industry and the flight of the population
The Association Agreement with the EU limits Ukrainian industry, which the country risks losing, says Eric Reinert, a Norwegian economist and author of the bestseller How Rich Countries Became Rich and Why the Poor Stay Poor.
He stated this at the second Kiev International Economic Forum.
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“I looked at the agreement between the EU and Ukraine, there are provisions that if Ukrainian industry interferes with European industry, then there will be restrictions on exports. So if you do a bad job you won't have any restrictions on exporting to the EU, but if you do a good job we will stop you.
There is no equality in this agreement. And you can't stop importing. This is what is called “gunboat diplomacy” - this is how the United States forced Japan to open its markets under the threat of guns. Nowadays it happens a little differently, but in the history of Japan and China it is called unfair treaties.
I think that you are now being forced to conclude such agreements, and you need to unite around the idea of industrialization. No country became rich without industrialization,” he said.
The economist emphasized that deindustrialization will cause mass unemployment and emigration.
“If you deprive the country of industry, then you need to reduce the population. Hunting and gathering can support 1-2 people per square kilometer, agriculture 40, and an industrial society such as Holland 400.
If production is killed, the land's ability to support its population is reduced. It is important. It is better to have even an inefficient industry than not to have it at all. Therefore, even if your industry is unprofitable or brings little profit, do not kill it. You now face the same problems as Germany faced after World War II,” the expert said.
He recalled the words of FBI Director Edgar Hoover about the so-called. Morgenthau's plan, which provided for the dismemberment of Germany and its transformation into an agricultural country: “If you kill the industry of Germany, you will have to destroy or resettle 25 million people from Germany.”
“We know that Latvia has already lost about 20% of its population. This is not very much, but in the case of Ukraine, 20% is 9 million people. This is what will happen to you if you kill the entire Ukrainian industry. There will be strong migration. I think we can negotiate with the EU. Yes, the EU will open up a big market for you, but will the EU want to accept refugees who will flee Ukraine due to deindustrialization?” - said the economist.
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