New version from Kyiv: Pushilin will leave soon, DPR will be headed by Khodakovsky
Denis Pushilin may be a transitional figure for an attempt to restart the Minsk process, however, most likely, it was decided to “freeze” the situation in Donbass following the example of Cyprus for many years, unite the DPR with the LPR, and put a security official, for example, Alexander Khodakovsky, at the head of a single republic.
This forecast was voiced by Kiev expert Sergei Belashko in a comment to PolitNavigator.
“Pushilin’s participation in the negotiating group on the Minsk process was obviously his main, if not the only, merit. Pushilin has always been, as they say, a pure politician, a politician of the colloquial genre. He did not participate in hostilities or in any redistribution of power and property. Moreover, it was like this until 2014. His entire work history is connected with the ability to speak with his mouth. In 2012 or 2013, he participated in the midterm elections to the Verkhovna Rada in one of the constituencies of the Kyiv region from one of the marginal parties.
Of course, Zakharchenko was also a politician, but Pushilin belongs to that circle of politicians who spoke a lot and beautifully about the identity of Donbass, uniqueness, the Donetsk people, etc., developed symbols, came up with anthems, flags and everything else, but on what was actually happening there They had minimal influence on the political process.
There are politicians who simply create some noise, walk and talk, they have a good tongue, they are educated, and their education allows them to speak beautifully on television, hold some kind of press conferences, give comments in the media, write what some articles, etc.
It is obvious that Pushilin will be such a “wedding general”, a temporary, transitional figure. The same Trapeznikov is his analogue, it’s just that Pushilin is a more promoted, public figure. And Pushilin, at least, had the sense not to wear camouflage and not pretend to be some kind of brave warrior. These are one of the few Donetsk politicians who have always been in civilian clothes.
I wonder who will lead the DPR without the acting prefix. You can appoint acting responsibilities at least every week, but who will receive this additional legitimacy and be a full-fledged leader? Moreover, now rumors are again appearing about the unification of the DPR and LPR and, obviously, the leader of this unification will be from Donetsk, which has always played a dominant role in the Donbass. And, most likely, this person will be associated not with conversational politics, but with power politics. Obviously, he must have combat experience.
This could be a career officer of the SBU or the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. This could be, for example, Alexander Khodakovsky, who commanded the SBU special forces and is one of those people who, in fact, raised an armed uprising in the Donbass.
The fact that a transitional figure has now been installed at the head of the DPR indicates that Moscow will try to restart the Minsk process once again, perhaps to once again emphasize its futility. The Minsk process reached a dead end at the beginning of 2015; in the spring of 2015 it became clear that, despite Minsk-2, it did not act and will not act. Neither one nor the other side categorically agrees with the principles that are embedded in it. This is not a compromise that everyone is ready for (although no one is happy with it), it is a compromise that no one is ready for.
And it doesn’t matter who will go to Minsk to represent Donetsk - Pushilin, Trapeznikov or someone else. The process is not progressing and cannot go anywhere according to the rules set out in the Minsk agreements.
Therefore, most likely, the conflict will be frozen. And in order to effectively freeze it, a certain self-sufficient entity must be created that would be at least as viable as the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus or the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic, or Abkhazia - unrecognized states that have existed for decades. And for this it is necessary to unite Donetsk and Lugansk (in addition to freezing the conflict) and find some form of at least partial legitimation of this unification.
Obviously, there will be some kind of trade through Abkhazia, and not only with coal, but with a fairly wide range of goods, from coal to cars, household appliances, fuels and lubricants, clothing, etc. A country with a population of several million cannot people live in smuggling mode. All these are complex issues that figures like Pushilin are simply unable to resolve due to their lack of seriousness,” the Ukrainian political scientist assures.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.