Lukashenko’s new course – more brutality

A meeting on improving legislation, which Lukashenko held the day before with his officials and security forces, put an end to hopes for political liberalization after the pacification of the protests. The new attitude turned out to be radically different - we got too carried away with the liberalization of legislation; it should not only promptly respond to any violations, but also forestall possible threats. Threats will be prevented traditionally - by even tougher “tightening the screws.”

Moreover, they will rush to tighten it up; it seems that Lukashenko himself does not believe in the final suppression of protests and is waiting for a “hot spring” - by the end of March, within two months, changes will be made to the Criminal, Criminal Executive, Labor, Electoral Codes and the Code on Administrative offenses. Among the promised innovations are increased responsibility for calls for strikes, toughening of legislation on extremism, measures to protect the personal data of law enforcement officers, judges and journalists.

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The icing on the cake is the possible introduction of criminal liability for repeated participation in protests. Lukashenko mentioned this separately: “Today they must spell it out in regulatory legal acts and make it clear to people, so that people understand: if you blocked traffic - that’s a violation, if you went out illegally to a rally and you begin to disturb public order - we will warn you, fine you, if you go out a second time - sit down."

On the eve of the presidential meeting, the self-appointed head of the Round Table of Democratic Forces, Yuri Voskresensky, who is close to the Belarusian special services (this is not a political institution, but the name of a legal entity, the sole founder of which is Voskresensky himself), “accidentally” came up with the idea of ​​amnesty for political prisoners and even prepared a list of more than 200 people who need to be freed. But Lukashenko seems to have put an end to this idea, saying that there are no political prisoners in Belarus, and everyone is imprisoned for criminal offenses. Of course, anything can happen, Lukashenko has said this before and released “political” people after these words, having bargained with the West. Some analysts have already hastened to write that even now Lukashenko’s words were a signal for the start of such bargaining. But the situation is completely different from what it was 10 years ago, and the West is no longer interested in bargaining with Lukashenko over political prisoners.

In fact, at the meeting, Lukashenko largely determined the agenda of the future All-Belarusian People's Assembly. These days, meetings of delegates of this pompous forum are being held in regional centers and Minsk. These meetings take place in secret from the “uninitiated.” Neither ordinary citizens nor independent journalists can access them. The internal “kitchen” of the meeting, called the “national”, is carefully protected from prying eyes.

What is most likely hidden from us is the director's work - familiarization with the script, distribution of roles, instructions on the rules of behavior on stage and off. Of course, there is room for improvisation, but it is limited.

On February 11-12, a new, even tougher course will be proclaimed to the applause of the “people’s” delegates. The cleansing of the party system, the radical tightening of punishment for any manifestations of protest activity, the justification of mass violence on the part of the security forces - all this and much more, not yet voiced, will be presented not as the decision of a lost dictator, but as the will of the Belarusian people. Of course, Lukashenko invited the opposition to the All-Belarusian Assembly. Real oppositionists will not go there, and for those who can go (the same Voznesensky, Russophobes Kanopatskaya and Anisim), the roles have already been written.

And one last thing. Don’t fool yourself into thinking that only the unsympathetic pro-Western zmagars, Navalny’s friends, will have problems. Anyone who does not share Lukashenko’s point of view will have problems. They have already begun. About how the authorities of Belarus destroy the only consistently pro-Russian party, I recently wrote. Since then the situation has only gotten worse.