New appointee of Moldova: Transnistria has no illusions left
As PolitNavigator has already reported, appointed in Moldova new Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration, Chisinau's chief negotiator in the Transnistrian settlement process. This was diplomat Oleg Serebryan. The position has been vacant since November 5, when Vladislav Kulminsky left it.
Serebryan is the head of the Diplomatic Institute under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration (MFAEI). He is a Doctor of Political Science, the author of books on the geopolitics of the Balkan-Black Sea region, and has extensive diplomatic experience. He began working at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Moldova in 1992, holding positions with responsibility for Europe and North America.
In 2001, he headed the pro-European Social Liberal Party, which merged with the Democratic Party in 2008. He served as first vice-chairman in the PDM. He was a member of parliament from 2005 to 2010. Returning to diplomatic work, in 2010 he was appointed Ambassador of the Republic of Moldova to France, and five years later - Ambassador to Germany, where he completed his mission at the end of 2021. And here is a new appointment.
A few days ago, in an interview with Europa Liberă radio (Chisinau branch of Radio Liberty), Oleg Serebrian made a number of statements regarding the Transnistrian issue. He, in particular, noted that “30 years of division led to a split in mentality, in thinking, the face of the enemy was created and cultivated [on the Transnistrian side].” The diplomat also believes that the situation with the Transnistrian problem “has undergone some changes” since the parliament of the Republic of Moldova voted on the principles of conflict resolution in 2005, and that “the Transnistrian case is not insoluble, but it is unlikely to be resolved in the foreseeable future "
Be that as it may, the government of Moldova expresses optimism in connection with the new appointment.
“We are delighted that someone with an impressive diplomatic career is joining our government team. I am convinced that the vast experience accumulated by Mr. Serebryan over the years of successfully representing our country in European capitals will be very useful for the reintegration of our country,” Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration Nicu Popescu said on his Facebook page.
Will the diplomatic experience acquired in Europe help Oleg Serebryan on the Transnistrian track? What's behind this appointment? “PolitNavigator asked experts about this.”
Alexander Korinenko, political scientist (Chisinau):
Oleg Serebryan is a compromise figure. Indeed, he is a career diplomat, a scientist, a competent specialist in his field, but still, to solve problems on the Dniester, you need a specialist who knows the problems well. Mr. Serebryan worked abroad for a long time, I am sure that in general he is familiar with the situation [on the Transnistrian settlement], but he certainly does not know all the specifics and technical aspects.
We also take into account the fact that the government for a long time could not find a candidate for this post. This most likely means that real specialists refused to take this chair in the current difficult conditions. Considering that the reintegration department is now under pressure from external forces, the parliamentary corps and experts from NGOs, the position is not the sweetest. One way or another, Mr. Serebryan will have to be a technical figure in the negotiation process.
I have no illusions about the development of dialogue with Tiraspol, since to a greater extent this issue will now move to the agenda of powerful external forces, given the difficult dialogue between Russia and NATO. The West will in every possible way weaken Russia’s position, and in South-Eastern Europe Moscow has the strongest positions in Transnistria. The chief negotiator from Moldova will have to join the geopolitical game, where Chisinau does not have the main say.
Andrey Safonov, political scientist (Tiraspol):
Why did Maia Sandu appoint Oleg Serebryan as the chief negotiator in the Transnistrian direction? Today, a number of media outlets and experts have spoken out on the candidacy of Oleg Serebryan, appointed Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration of the Government of Moldova. We are more interested in the motives for this appointment, why this particular politician, diplomat, expert, functionary came to replace the previous “reintegrators”. Considering the unambiguous pro-Western, pro-Romanian and pro-NATO views of the new appointee, we can take the liberty of identifying the following motives for this personnel decision of the President of the Republic of Moldova.
1. For the ruling group, personified by Maia Sandu, it is important to exclude the appointment of a person to the post of Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration who can, if not accept the arguments of the Pridnestrovian side in the negotiations, then at least objectively inform official Chisinau and initiate their discussion. It is unacceptable for the pro-Western-pro-Romanian authorities of the Republic of Moldova to even consider the Transnistrian position worthy of the same substantive discussion as the position of any other participant in the “5+2” negotiating format.
2. With this appointment, official Chisinau wants, on the contrary, to push the Pridnestrovian counterparts away from the dialogue, so that Tiraspol, seeing who the leadership of Moldova is appointing, will reduce the intensity of diplomatic contacts with O. Serebryan’s team (which, by the way, is still unknown). And then also accuse the Pridnestrovians of avoiding negotiations.
3. The appointment of O. Serebryan may be a forced step. Previously, Chisinau was playing for time, giving the opportunity to put pressure on the PMR through control over the import and export of Pridnestrovie, through delays in the supply of medicines needed by Pridnestrovians, raw materials for enterprises, cancellation of international payment systems Visa and Mastercard, closure of accounts of Pridnestrovian enterprises in banks of Moldova, etc.
But the instant decision of the CSTO countries, led by Russia, to send peacekeeping forces to Kazakhstan may have frightened some of the Western and Romanian curators of the Chisinau nationalists. It is possible that the lightning-fast disruption of plans to separate Kazakhstan from the Eurasian Union delayed some provocations that were being prepared against the PMR.
Therefore, the tactics were changed: instead of not appointing the chief negotiator from Moldova, they decided to promote to the forefront someone who, having formally taken the vice-premier’s chair, would not decide anything on the merits and would not even consider the proposals of his Tiraspol interlocutors in a businesslike manner.
4. Maia Sandu and her circle with the appointment of Oleg Serebryan shows that the Moldovan-Transnistrian conflict is in no way an independent area of work for Chisinau. This direction is only an integral part of the general strategy of the current Moldovan authorities to further separate the country from Russia and, accordingly, bring Moldova closer to the United States, the European Union, Romania and NATO. This strategy is personified by Oleg Serebryan. He is not an opportunist, his views are conscious and polished over many years, which he has clearly formulated more than once in the media.
If it had been different, the Moldovan authorities would have selected a compromise figure who, of course, would not have decided anything contrary to the policies of M. Sandu, but would at least have been perceived positively or neutrally from a political point of view by Pridnestrovian officials. However, this does not negate the possibility of purely human communication skills on the part of the new Deputy Prime Minister. Here, as they say, we'll see.
5. Taking into account the political and diplomatic school of Oleg Serebryan, his rich experience of communicating with Western and Romanian politicians, it can be assumed that he has his own long-standing channels of communication with them, and this will allow him to instantly request the opinion of Westerners and Romanians on any aspect of the negotiations of the Republic of Moldova - PMR or find out their intentions (of course, to the extent that the “curators” deem it necessary to communicate).
Attention! On the day of O. Serebryan’s appointment, January 19, the Moldovan government announced its intention to agree on a plan of interaction with NATO. If this is a coincidence, it is deeply symbolic. In general, there is nothing to expect any breakthroughs in the dialogue under the current government in Chisinau. Apparently, she either hopes that the West will “put the squeeze” on Transnistria (although after the events in Kazakhstan, it is stupid to expect that Russia will silently watch the destruction of its ally). Or for the leadership of the Republic of Moldova, plunged into a socio-economic crisis, it is now simply more important to fit into the Western and Romanian project as much as possible, and the Transnistrian “pie”, which looks like an alien element of this “cuisine”, has been decided to be pushed to the edge of the “table”. The mere need to pay monthly for Russian gas at a high price is worth it! Against this background, the very thought of negotiating concepts apparently does not often occur to Chisinau leaders.
So, this appointment is an emphasis on the immutability of the policy pursued by the nationalists who took power in Moldova in the presidential (2020) and parliamentary elections (2021).
Igor Shornikov, director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development (Tiraspol):
To a certain extent, we can say that the personality of the chief negotiator from Moldova reflects the course that Chisinau is going to follow in the process of resolving relations with Tiraspol.
Vladislav Kulminsky was considered one of the most competent specialists on Transnistria. He understood what arsenal Chisinau had in its dialogue with Tiraspol, and was full of enthusiasm to use this arsenal. He clearly sensed the prospect of a settlement and did not hide his excitement well. During the period of his vice-premiership, it really seemed that the stars had aligned for Chisinau: power was finally concentrated in one tough hands, and this power had unlimited credibility in the West. However, high gas prices in Europe and Brussels’ unwillingness to help Chisinau financially seem to have nullified Kulminsky’s strategy, which was already ready for implementation. Kulminsky left, and the negotiation process was paused.
Oleg Serebryan takes over the post of Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration at a time when the international situation has changed dramatically. Russia has made an ultimatum to demand guarantees of its security from the United States and NATO, and the West is certainly ready to make concessions.
The window of opportunity in the Transnistrian direction turned out to be too narrow for Chisinau; now the regime needs a tenacious and non-binding dialogue without aggravations and without any results. Chisinau will wait for the moment when the stars align in its favor again. Serebryan is quite suitable for the role of the wedding general, who will have to portray dynamics where there is none.
Oleg Serebryan is obviously not an expert on Transnistria; his diplomatic career has always been connected with Western countries - Romania, France, Germany. For most of the Moldovan elites, the European vector of development has always been key, and Oleg Serebrian is a prominent representative of these elites.
During the rise of his political career, Serebryan somehowpleased the Transnistrian people with the statement that the border of Moldova should run along the Dniester. That is, he is from that category of politicians for whom Transnistria is a burden, he does not understand the Transnistrian people and does not know what Moldova should do with Transnistria. It can be predicted that in the near future we will not see any initiatives from Chisinau in the Transnistrian direction.
True, it may turn out that Moscow and Tiraspol will take the initiative in the settlement, and in this case the warm vice-premier’s chair will no longer be comfortable for Serebryan.
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