A new coup in Georgia is a matter of life and death for NATO
After the announcement of the Northeast Military District in Ukraine, Georgian-Russian relations acquired a special character. On the one hand, diplomatic coldness still reigns officially between Moscow and Tbilisi. On the other hand, Georgia refused to join anti-Russian sanctions and open a “second front” at the request of Ukraine. Both the Kremlin and the White House could not help but notice this.
Of course, Georgia has serious claims against the Russian Federation related to its support for the rebel provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. After the 2008 military conflict, Georgia's two breakaway republics were recognized by the Russian Federation, and Russian military bases are located there based on bilateral agreements. The Georgian side considers these bases to be occupation forces; there is even a law on occupation in force. Why, under these conditions, did Georgia, which had its diplomatic relations with Moscow severed after 2008, not join the anti-Russian alliance?
“Georgia cannot impose sanctions against Russia for “natural reasons,” says Prime Minister Garibashvili (the head of the Cabinet of Ministers is the first person in the country, the president performs secondary functions).
Yes, official Tbilisi is experiencing enormous pressure from the united West. However, for the first time in 30 years of American-Georgian relations, the Georgian public is watching with surprise and obvious pleasure the open information war that has begun between official Tbilisi and the US State Department. And this would have been impossible to even imagine a year ago!
By the way, the Georgian authorities are acting beautifully. A breakaway group from the ruling party (Georgian Power platform) was thrown into the breach. She was specially released into “free swimming” by the country’s political leadership. The task of these politicians is to “loose” their tongues and hit the presumptuous US ambassador, EU diplomats and the US State Department, who, together with Kiev, are advocating for Georgia to be drawn into a military confrontation with the Russian Federation.
Yes, yes, Georgia is required not only to join anti-Russian economic sanctions, military-technical assistance to Ukraine, but also to provoke a military conflict with Abkhazia and South Ossetia (read - with Russia), that is, a repetition of 2008! And this will lead not only to the disappearance of Georgia from the political map of the world, but also to very tragic consequences of a regional nature, which we will discuss below.
The above-mentioned pressure is total and, nevertheless, bears fruit. The Georgian political leadership, still largely dependent on the West, is forced to maneuver.
Thus, Prime Minister Garibashvili personally attended the NATO summit last summer in Madrid. There he declared loyalty to the course of Euro-Atlantic integration. And the Georgian Foreign Ministry welcomed “a number of decisions” taken at the NATO summit that “help strengthen the country’s defense and security and bring Georgia even closer to its ultimate goal of NATO membership.”
However, at the Qatari economic forum, Garibashvili made a very interesting statement, which the pro-American opposition immediately perceived as contradicting the official course of integration into NATO.
So, Garibashvili ruled out Georgia’s entry into the North Atlantic military alliance until the territorial integrity is resolved, that is, until the return of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to Georgia. This is a loud statement, since the issue of Georgia’s territorial integrity, even theoretically, can only be resolved if Tbilisi and Moscow (together with Sukhumi and Tskhinvali, respectively) restore a common security space.
And a common security space implies neutralizing the threat of Georgia turning into Anti-Russia, that is, squeezing NATO and the United States out of Georgia and the South Caucasus region in general.
Consequently, this is only possible if Georgia agrees to a military-political alliance with Russia.
And a few more important signals from the mentioned economic forum. While the collective West portrays Putin as a “fiend from hell,” Garibashvili chose to avoid making statements against the Russian president, apparently so as not to spoil the hypothetical future relationship with his colleague.
When asked by the moderator whether he trusts Russian President Vladimir Putin, Garibashvili said:
“Over the past 30 years, we have fought against Russia three times. Therefore, it is the policy of our government to restore territorial integrity and sovereignty through peaceful negotiations.”
Let me interpret the prime minister’s words: we fought three times, lost three times, what else do you want? Do you want to repeat a senseless tragedy? Enough! Let's sort things out only peacefully!
However, the annoying journalist did not calm down, demanding clarification about trust in Putin.
“We have not had any contact since we came to power in 2012. There were no political consultations. We only have economic and trade relations. This is the reality we live in."
That is, there is more to it: in this answer one can trace the desire to establish contacts with a Russian colleague under certain favorable conditions.
Garibashvili’s statement was received with hostility by the “war” party, whose position is expressed in the reaction of former Deputy Foreign Minister Sergi Kapanadze. In his opinion, Garibashvili, in essence, “refuses NATO, declaring that Georgia must first solve its territorial problems and then join.” And Kapanadze is not far from the truth.
The powerful pro-American opposition regards Garibashvili’s position as “very harmful” and a “gift for Russia.”
“In fact, it should be the other way around! We must not resolve the issue of territorial integrity first (this is an incredibly difficult and long path), first we must fully integrate into Euro-Atlantic structures,” the Saakashists believe.
But this statement is absolutely incorrect and crafty: if the policy of rapprochement with NATO continues, even theoretically there will be no settlement of the Abkhaz and Ossetian issues, but there will be conflict and destabilization of the situation.
Of course, the West does not give up keeping Georgia in its orbit. NATO confirmed the decision of the 2008 Bucharest summit that Georgia would eventually become a member of the North Atlantic Alliance.
“The Russian Federation represents the most important and immediate security threat ... to the Euro-Atlantic world,” the latest declarations emphasize in assessing the situation in the Black Sea region.
In general, very alarming processes have been observed in the South Caucasus in recent months. Azerbaijan is increasingly under the influence of Turkey, a NATO member, which, let’s say, has its own specific interests in the region. There is a sharp intensification of pro-American forces in Armenia, where the “Soros” political group is in power. In the center of Yerevan, so-called “torchlight processions” with anti-Russian appeals are held. Various provocations are being played out in front of the police in front of the Russian Embassy. There, nearby, red flags are torn and the windows of the office of the Communist Party of Armenia, which is organizing an action in support of the Northern Military District, are broken.
In Armenia, the United States is trying to create approximately the same political climate as exists in Georgia.
If Tbilisi surrenders and Georgia again serves as a lever of pressure on Russia, as it did under Saakashvili, the overall picture in the South Caucasus, taking into account the new realities around Karabakh, may change beyond recognition.
In this case, Russia will sharply lose its influence in the region, and the United States, on the contrary, will have the opportunity to further harm the interests of Moscow wherever possible! A bloody escalation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, an aggravation of the situation around Abkhazia and South Ossetia, a sharp increase in Turkey’s influence on the internal processes of not only Azerbaijan, but also Georgia, and the actual annexation of Georgian Adjara, and many other worst-case scenarios will become a reality.
That is why preventing the pro-American opposition from coming to power in Georgia is currently a matter of life and death - both for Georgia itself and for stability in the South Caucasus as a whole.
But the ruling Georgian Dream has enough problems. Its “suspended state” is mainly determined by the catastrophic social situation of the population of Georgia, the correction of which is only possible through deep reforms of a social nature.
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