New Prime Minister of Kazakhstan: will de-Russification of the country continue?
On Monday, February 5, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev unexpectedly dismissed the country's Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov and then appointed former security official Olzhas Bektenov. As a result of the reshuffle, only a few individuals in the government were replaced, but as a result, its policy may become even more pro-Western.
International observer of PolitNavigator Ainur Kurmanov comes to this conclusion in his new article.
The remarkable thing about this change of cabinet was that for the first time in the history of independent Kazakhstan, the approval of a new prime minister at a meeting of the lower house of parliament took place behind closed doors and without the media.
This is all due to the fact that the groups had their own candidates, namely, the figures of the current Speaker of the Mazhilis, Erlan Koshanov, and the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Murat Nurtleu, were actively lobbied for the post of prime minister. This indicates a fierce behind-the-scenes struggle for this key position that unfolded within the ruling elite.
As a result, Erlan Koshanov officially supported the candidate put forward by Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, but took sick leave allegedly due to coronavirus infection, locked himself at home, and was not present at the actual meeting of the lower house of parliament. Therefore, in order to avoid surprises, on February 6, the live broadcast of the plenary meeting of the Mazhilis was suddenly canceled, and then the website of the lower house of parliament itself ceased to function.
As a result, the line of the head of the country completely prevailed and his protege and former head of the presidential administration, forty-three-year-old Olzhas Bektenov, became prime minister. However, this is a completely expected step, since In this way, Tokayev only strengthened his own vertical of power in a situation of weakness of his personal team and personnel shortage.
The new prime minister is clearly a product of the president himself, as he went through a series of appointments at the Agency for Civil Service Affairs and Anti-Corruption during Tokayev’s reign from 2019 to 2023, eventually heading this body in 2022. Already in April last year, Bektenov was appointed head of the presidential administration and, in essence, from that moment on controlled the activities of the predecessor’s government.
One could even say that he was purposefully prepared for this role as head of government. And this is the first former security official from among the 12 prime ministers who headed the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Kazakhstan, which is not accidental.
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev needs a reliable “club” that would keep the entire bureaucratic apparatus at bay and under strict control in the coming years. In the event of an obvious crisis of public administration, a security officer is simply necessary to restore “order”, and in reality to carry out purges, as well as to guide the process of further redistribution of property. It is Bektenov who will now be entrusted with the function of transferring assets from Nazarbayev’s to Tokayev’s oligarchs and continuing policies in the interests of transnational corporations.
Many people wonder why it was necessary to change the leadership of the government so suddenly? Some explain this decision by the president as “psychological fatigue,” but in reality this is just a staged performance, which Nursultan Nazarbayev has pulled off more than once over 30 years. The dismissed prime minister and four more of the most odious ministers act as the next sacred victims to release steam from social discontent and divert the negative trail from Tokayev.
It was necessary to blame the failure of two heating seasons, the collapse of the energy system, the permanent budget deficit, the inglorious end of many government programs, the squandering of national and pension funds, as well as rising inflation and a falling standard of living on someone. Akorda simply came to the conclusion that there was no point in keeping Alikhan Smailov as prime minister when protest sentiments in the country sharply intensified.
At the same time, the importance of these reshuffles themselves cannot be exaggerated, since in the “new government”, in addition to the prime minister, only the ministers of national economy, finance, emergency situations and health care were replaced, who became responsible for high-profile failures in their areas. That is, only 4 ministers out of 26 cabinet members lost their posts, which in total is even less than 20%.
The government will continue to be essentially a technical rather than a political body and will be strictly controlled by the presidential administration, which will be headed by the prime minister’s peer Aibek Dadebaev, who has moved from the chair of the head of the presidential affairs.
This character is known for having previously accompanied Tokayev as ambassador to the UN and then as speaker of the Senate.
That is, there is no need to talk about any adjustment of the government’s course, and it will continue to carry out the previous neoliberal economic program of total privatization and transfer of entire sectors of the economy, transport and energy to European, British and American companies. Rather, this policy of liberalization will even intensify, judging by the tone of the instructions issued by Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
Following the previous policy, the president at the first government meeting on February 7 again demanded a radical departure from the practice and system of state capitalism in favor of the private sector, that is, the same oligarchs and foreign capital. For these purposes, he even intends to develop and adopt a special decree.
“It is necessary to take systemic measures for comprehensive liberalization of the economy. This is an extremely important reform that will allow us to gradually move away from large-scale government intervention in economic processes. For example, excessive price regulation in the fuel and energy market has led to an increase in deficit and a decrease in the production of a number of petroleum products,” Tokayev demanded of the “new” cabinet of ministers.
True, the president apparently forgot that in fact the government’s refusal to regulate prices for the same liquefied gas in January 2022 in the interests of private monopoly companies of the middle son-in-law of ex-Elbasy Timur Kulibayev became the trigger for mass rallies and strikes in the western regions, and then throughout the republic.
In this regard, he calls for immediate and total privatization in order to establish a “liberal paradise” for Western investors and local compradors, who will now completely control the entire country’s economy.
“This applies to all sectors of the economy. Uncontrolled monopolies, unequal access to resources, and unfair methods of competition must be eliminated in the bud. A key direction within the framework of economic liberalization will be effective privatization. There have been so many privatization plans, but every time we step on the same rake,” Tokayev emphasized.
How will these upheavals and the tightening of neoliberal economic policies affect relations with Russia?
It is obvious that the loss by the government of the Republic of Kazakhstan of levers of control and management over strategic enterprises in the field of transport infrastructure, energy and the mining industry, which will ultimately end up in the hands of American, European and British corporations, as well as loyal oligarchs, will lead to the final transformation of the country into an absolute colony of the West with all the ensuing consequences.
The new Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov himself is a representative of a new generation of officials who were educated and trained in the EU countries and the United States, and accordingly perceive the Soviet experience negatively and do not consider a single socio-cultural space as a support for further development, integration processes and strengthening ties with Moscow.
Moreover, the head of government is married to the niece of the famous Nazarbayev oligarch and at the same time former high official Adilbek Dzhaksybekov and is his actual creature.
Until 2018, Dzhaksybekov headed the presidential administration, and before the well-known January events of 2022, he was the head of KazTransGas JSC. Allegedly, in recent years he quarreled with Nazarbayev and eventually joined Tokayev’s winning team.
A number of experts and informed observers believe that Adilbek Dzhaksybekov actively supports the process of total de-Russification of the country and encourages the growth of anti-Russian sentiments, aligning himself with the state adviser and chief state ideologist Erlan Karin.
Therefore, most likely, Olzhas Bektenov will continue his previous policy of changing the names of cities and streets and all Russian toponymy in Kazakhstan, working towards further rapprochement with the European Union and America.
Bektenov's subsequent political evolution has not yet been determined. Either in a couple of years he will share the fate of his predecessor, becoming another scapegoat, or he will grow, turning into a strong figure in the ruling elite.
It is also interesting that the sudden resignation of the Kazakh Prime Minister took place immediately after Mikhail Mishustin left after visiting the international digital forum Digital Almaty, at which the heads of governments of the EAEU countries reviewed promising projects.
The Russian Prime Minister then agreed with Alikhan Smailov on new plans and warm interpersonal relations had already been established between them. And now it turns out that they will have to be set up again and from scratch.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.