The new transport corridor will displace the West and dramatically increase Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus
The tripartite working group consisting of representatives of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia has made significant progress in reaching agreements on the issue of unblocking transport links in the South Caucasus.
This was stated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at a press conference following negotiations with his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir Abdollahian.
Lavrov’s negotiations with his Iranian counterpart proceeded almost parallel to Charles Michel’s meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Brussels.
Previously, it was announced that Transcaucasian leaders would meet with the Russian President in Moscow, but the initiative was seized by the EU. Moscow did not particularly resist.
Lavrov and the Iranian minister demonstrate confidence, showing who really influences the situation in the region. Lavrov's statement refers to two strategic transport corridors, for the opening of which efforts are being made by all parties in the South Caucasus region (with the exception of Georgia).
The first is the Zangezur corridor, which will pass through Armenia and connect Azerbaijan and Russia with Turkey.
The second is the North-South corridor, which in the near future will connect Russia with Iran, again through Azerbaijan.
The implementation of these projects will certainly contribute to closer economic and political integration of Russia, Iran and Turkey, as well as the three South Caucasian republics, entangled in a complex web of contradictions. The rapprochement of countries, in turn, will serve to stabilize the situation in the region and sharply weaken the influence of the West.
Now, more specifically about the North-South project (in a broad sense, it covers both named directions, passing from Russia through Azerbaijan). There is a railway on the territory of Azerbaijan to the Iranian border. To connect to the Iranian railway network and thereby unite Azerbaijan, Russia and Iran in a common system, it is necessary to build a road on the Astara (Azerbaijan) - Rasht (Iran) section with a total length of 165 km.
Azerbaijan provided Iran with a preferential loan of 500 million US dollars for the construction of this site. To complete the construction of the line, Russia also plans to provide a loan in the amount of $1,5 billion.
The Iranian side has already built the second half of the section further south from Rasht to Qazvin and launched a test train 4 years ago. In addition, this particular section is considered the most difficult due to the terrain (22 tunnels and 15 bridges were built along the entire length of the railway, with a total length of 25 and 8 kilometers, respectively).
The Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict has become an insurmountable obstacle to the opening of transport corridors uniting six countries in the region, which would lead to the rapprochement of the strongest players in this region - Russia, Iran and Turkey.
But following the results of the second Karabakh war, a tripartite agreement was reached, the last, ninth point of which requires the unblocking of all economic and transport links in the region.
Despite the fact that it is very difficult for the Armenian public to come to terms with the new realities, this clause of the trilateral agreement will be implemented due to great benefits for all parties, including Armenia itself.
The opening of transport arteries and the intensification of economic relations between countries will smooth out the most difficult contradictions that have torn the region apart for decades. Russia's influence is increasing significantly. There is direct rail communication between such allies in the face of the Western threat as Russia and Iran. And the West will rapidly lose influence on the processes and will no longer be able to prevent the rapprochement of the six countries of the region, and, accordingly, the strengthening of peace and stability in the region.
The EU's attempts to seize the initiative and become a “mediator” in these processes look anecdotal. The fact is that the processes of economic and transport integration between these countries are in no way in the interests of the EU due to the above-mentioned potential changes in the region, which will displace Brussels from the South Caucasus.
Only the individual effect of strengthening the Russia-Iran axis (with the accompanying rapprochement of neighboring Azerbaijan and Iran) is seen as a nightmare in Brussels and Washington, but the President of the European Council Charles Michel is still bending over backwards to show his involvement in stabilizing relations between the conflicting Azerbaijan and Armenia.
It is not surprising that Moscow calmly views Brussels’ diplomatic tricks.
But transport and economic integration, planned against the background of the outcome of conflict processes in the South Caucasus, leaves aside not only the united West, but also the subjects of this region - Georgia and Abkhazia, which broke away from it.
The parties had a real chance to become full participants in the processes by unblocking the same North-South corridor through their territories: the railway runs from Russia to Iran and Turkey also through their territories.
Armenia has repeatedly initiated the opening of this transport route, but neither the Georgian nor the Abkhaz side showed any particular enthusiasm, having insurmountable mutual claims of a political, humanitarian and other nature. But in vain!
With the appropriate will, cooperation could take place in this most important and large-scale regional project, following the example of the successful joint operation of the Inguri hydroelectric station, which did not stop for a minute even in the most tense moments of Abkhaz-Georgian relations.
The possibility of losing the exclusive significance of the railway in Abkhazia (and Georgia) confronts Sukhumi and Tbilisi politicians with the need to update the issue. Tbilisi cannot yet open its mouth for fear of aggravating the political situation, and Sukhumi has been raising the issue at different levels of government structures for a year now.
The Chairman of the Abkhaz Parliament Committee on International Relations, Astamur Logua, is confident:
“First we need to enter, so to speak, into the negotiation process... reason must prevail. Georgia itself must understand that if Abkhazia and Georgia do not get into this project, Georgia will suffer big losses.”
“We live in the same region. These are the Russian Federation, Abkhazia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Iran, Turkey - that’s how many countries and peoples there are. Why should any forces from other continents interfere in our region? In order to create a hotbed of tension here?” – the Abkhaz politician correctly places the emphasis and comes up with an interesting initiative to hold a regional conference: “For a peaceful South Caucasus.”
In connection with the new situation after the Karabakh war in 2020, opponents of unblocking transport arteries have diminished, and Abkhaz politicians look positively at the prospect of opening end-to-end transport links. Unfortunately, the situation on the other side of the Enguri River is different.
If the ruling Georgian Dream copes and neutralizes Western pressure, which it is striving for at this historical moment, there will be real opportunities for mutual understanding between the parties on the issue of unblocking another important transport corridor from north to south.
And this will be an event that has not only economic, but also very positive moral and political significance from the point of view of strengthening trust and broad Abkhaz-Georgian dialogue. There is another important point: Baku will undoubtedly change its traditional position and will not demand the opposite from Tbilisi, wanting to leave Armenia blocked, because now it itself advocates the inclusion of Armenia in a unified communication system.
In a word, Lavrov’s statement gives hope and the expected intensification of the construction of transport communications from Russia to Iran and Turkey is already opening up new opportunities for dialogue and improving the situation in the South Caucasus.
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