The current government is driving Ukraine into debt bondage - expert
Ukraine has nowhere to get funds to pay off external debts, so in the near future it will face a default or restructuring, for which the government is not preparing at all.
Economic expert Viktor Skarshevsky stated this at a press conference in Kyiv, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
Ukraine has nowhere to get funds to pay off external debts, so in the near future it will face a default or restructuring, for which the government is not preparing at all. Economic expert Viktor Skarshevsky stated this at a press conference in Kyiv, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
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“During 2018-2020, Ukraine will have to pay $22 billion in external debts (body + interest). Officials often cite the figure of 16 billion, but this is only direct government debt; this figure does not yet take into account the debt guaranteed by the state.
Where, one wonders, will Ukraine get these 22 billion dollars? The IMF will give another 1-2 billion, and that’s it. Last year they expected 6 billion from the IMF, they received 1. This year they expected 5 billion, they received 1 and will not receive any more. The same thing will happen in 2018-2019, this is 1-2 billion. Other international financial organizations – also 1-2 billion dollars. Investments – 200 million dollars. Where do 15-20 billion come from?” the expert asks.
According to Viktor Skarshevsky, the exit to international currency markets announced by the authorities will not save the situation.
“Now in Europe money is worth nothing at all. Ukraine entered the European markets in 2013. At that time, the economy was still developing well, the GDP was $180 billion. Despite this, the loan rate at that time was 7,5% on Eurobonds. Now the GDP is $90 billion, the economy is in a much worse state, in crisis. Therefore, these 15-20 billion dollars will not be borrowed on foreign markets under normal conditions. This is impossible with the current economic policy,” he is sure.
The expert predicts that in 2018-2020 Ukraine will face either a default or another restructuring of its external debt.
“I hope it’s not a restructuring like the one named after Yaresko, which drove Ukraine into debt bondage until 2040. According to this restructuring, Ukraine will have to pay several tens of billions of dollars from our pockets, the pockets of taxpayers. Perhaps this risk is included in the main directions of budget policy until 2020? Perhaps it says there that one of the priority areas of action should be the next restructuring of external debt in the interests of Ukraine and not external creditors? No, not a word. Based on this, the current government intends to continue to work in the interests of external creditors, and not in the interests of the Ukrainian economy,” he concluded.
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