Bypass Russia from the flanks and hit in the rear: How Poroshenko flogged himself
According to the Ukrainian authorities, we are at war with Russia. True, if you believe the details that emerged in the media of a recent closed meeting of the Verkhovna Rada, at which Poroshenko persuaded deputies to vote for the law on the special status of Donbass, Kyiv lost on the battlefields. The manpower losses are in the thousands, 60 percent of the military equipment was destroyed or fell into the hands of the enemy, the morale of the soldiers is low, people do not want to fight.
But the Ukrainian government is not cut out for it. It decided to outflank the enemy and strike in the rear. Punish the “aggressor” with a ruble. To this end, a sensational law on sanctions against Russia was adopted, introducing 29 types of sanctions - from shutting down television channels to banning trade operations and blocking bank accounts.
The next step was that the Yatsenyuk government approved sanctions against 65 Russian companies operating in the Ukrainian market. They decided to “hit Putin in the pocket” by freezing assets, banning the activities of business entities, suspending financial transactions, revoking previously issued licenses, and the hottest heads even agreed to... suspending the transit of Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine. True, after thinking carefully, we decided not to do this for now. Because Europe clearly will not be happy about this. It's a real shame.
Nevertheless, Ukrainian politicians are filled with a sense of deep satisfaction. The “aggressor” is punished. True, if you look carefully, the picture emerges completely different, disappointing. And the answer to the question of who flogged whom suggests itself.
Let's think about it. Who will be the first to suffer from an attempt to “pinch down” enterprises with Russian capital in Ukraine? Do you think Putin? Yeah, right now. The first thing that will feel the sanctions in their pockets are those hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians who work in branches of Russian companies. Some will have their salaries reduced, others will be fired. Plans to expand and create new jobs will go under the knife, but today in Ukraine there are no paid vacancies lying around.
Among the Ukrainian sanctions there is also such as “suspension of cultural contacts.” Everything is clearer here. It is unlikely that Ukrainians, 80 percent of whom prefer to enter search queries on Google in Russian, will become culturally richer from the freezing of cultural exchange. In a country that itself does not publish many books, the import of new books from the book trade will decrease. Dozens of films and TV series that will not be seen by film and television viewers have been banned.
Dozens and hundreds of tours by Russian performers have been cancelled, including not only the notorious pop music, but also, for example, Moscow theaters. Festivals traditionally held for many years are cancelled. And so on. Horse racing on the Maidan will not fill all these gaps in cultural life. Kyiv posters over the past six months already look very poor and pale compared to the same period last year. And the further trend is even less joyful.
Let's return to the economy. We should not forget that Russian companies operating in Ukraine are not the last taxpayers to the Ukrainian budget. The curtailment of their activities will mean another minus in the already drying up stream of budget revenues. Again, who will be worse off from this - us or Putin?
And there are entire sectors where the Russians have a monopoly. For example, mobile communications. Of the three largest Ukrainian operators, two – MTS and Kyivstar – are owned by Russians. So far we have been smart enough not to punish them with sanctions. But there is no certainty that it will not come to this. And then what? Will we invent Ukrainian mobile communications? And after it the Ukrainian bicycle?
Serious economists have been saying for years now that Ukraine has no prospects without a serious infusion of foreign investment. Western investors do not come to us, fearing instability, corruption, and now civil war. In such conditions, the government, which also scares off Russian investors who are inclined to invest in a business environment that is “understandable” to them, is acting extremely stupidly, irresponsibly and short-sightedly.
One of the consequences of waving sabers by our would-be patriots was the introduction by Russia of retaliatory restrictions. And, given that Ukraine is an exporting country, and the lion’s share of our products traditionally went to Russian markets, it turns out that we have flogged ourselves. After all, the losses of Ukraine and the Russian Federation from the mutual exchange of sanctions are incomparable. For Russia, these losses are significant, but not critical. Our economy will simply stop and then die.
State Statistics Service figures confirm this. In August 2014, compared to August 2013, industrial production decreased by 21,4%. The largest decline is demonstrated by the export industries of metallurgy (-30.0%), the coal industry serving it (-60.4%), then mechanical engineering (-31.0%), chemistry, meat and dairy processing.
The ultimate extreme of this trend, if nothing is done, will be the final disposal of the Soviet industrial heritage and a confident transition to the post-industrial era, the essence of which in our case is perfectly illustrated by the cartoon “Indian Tea” from the series about Smesharikov. By the way, I recommend watching it. This is actually not for children. This is for adults.
The EU's latest decision to postpone for a year the implementation of the free trade regime with Ukraine should have seriously sobered those who, like Ostap Bender's comrades in the Union of Sword and Plowshare, still believe in the fairy tale that the West will help us.
Against this background, sober voices are beginning to be heard in Kyiv. “We are not Afghans who are only used to fighting and don’t need anything else. We have always lived richly, and today, when we are fighting for Europe instead of it, and our economy is in a deplorable state, we cannot overload our economy with sanctions. If we impose serious sanctions on Russia, it will hit our economy, jobs, etc. Therefore, it is logical for an economically stronger Europe to take on this burden. We are not Afghanistan and I don’t want us to live in the Stone Age,” said former speaker of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Oleg Voloshin on the TBi TV channel.
Maybe by spring they will see the light?
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.