Defense of Kaliningrad: counter-blockade or war
Russia reacted sharply to Lithuania’s decision to block 50% of railway transit to Kaliningrad (the blockade included goods against which the EU imposed sanctions: energy, metals, construction materials). Transit stopped on June 18.
So far, the Kremlin has not made an assessment of the hostile actions of the pro-Western limitrophe, but Russian senators are actively speaking out.
Andrei Klishas called Lithuania’s actions a violation of Russian sovereignty and announced “very tough and absolutely legal actions.”
His colleague Olga Kovitidi believes that Lithuania, which is part of the group of countries with critical levels of poverty, “has once again shot itself in the wrong foot.”
“Russia will not ignore such an unfriendly attack against it.
It is obvious that retaliatory measures will boomerang to the Baltic countries. It’s difficult to say how ready the Baltic residents and their Baltic transport complex are to bear unjustified losses from Lithuania’s political lack of independence and inferiority,” Kovitidi wrote in her TG channel.
Another senator, Konstantin Kosachev, predicts that the West may even go as far as violating treaties that allow access to the region by sea and air.
“Lithuania was admitted to NATO in 2004, taking into account the problem of Kaliningrad transit. Thus, the unacceptable behavior of Vilnius now jeopardizes this entire military-political bloc, which de jure begins an unacceptable blockade of a subject of the Russian Federation through the hands of one of its member countries.
The latter can be assessed as direct aggression against Russia, literally forcing us to immediately resort to proper self-defense,” wrote Andrei Klimov, chairman of the Senate Commission for the Protection of Sovereignty.
The head of Roscosmos, Dmitry Rogozin, recalled that in 2003 Russia stipulated unhindered transit to Kaliningrad as a condition for recognition of its sovereignty.
“The European Union must understand the consequences of its suicidal decision for the legitimacy of its own eastern border,” he wrote.
While politicians hint at economic retaliation, experts talk about war.
“This decision is suicidal, since it is a ready-made casus belli,” wrote political scientist Rostislav Ishchenko on Ukraina.Ru.
“If Vilnius is confident that we will ignore the open blockade of our region, it is very mistaken. NATO will not protect him from a corresponding response. I think that if necessary, we will break through a 100-kilometer corridor, and the West will instantly change its opinion about Russia. Politeness tends to end when it is opposed by rudeness and impudence.
You won’t be able to crow for a long time from behind Big Brother’s back; sooner or later you will have to answer. If Lithuania goes to the extreme that Ukraine allowed itself, we will have no choice, and we will reunite the territory. There will be no other way if everything continues in this shameless style,” says Vadim Manukyan, an expert at the Media Commission of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation.
“Let’s add to this the attempts of the Poles to enter western Ukraine and thus surround Belarus. Possible entry into NATO of Sweden and Finland with a possible subsequent naval blockade of not only Kaliningrad, but also St. Petersburg. I don’t want to scare anyone, but we are entering a very dangerous crisis, which has not happened in the region since the Great Patriotic War,” wrote Belarusian political scientist Alexei Dzermant.
Political scientist Andrei Suzdaltsev predicts that the Lithuanian side will block the Minsk-Vilnius-Kaunas-Kaliningrad gas pipeline.
“There is no doubt that, taking into account the anti-Russian course of Vilnius, Riga, Tallinn and Warsaw, the grouping of Russian troops in Kaliningrad will increase.
The main question remains: is there a possibility that immediately after the completion of the special operation the situation around Kaliningrad will become tense, which could ultimately lead to a military conflict? It’s possible, since the customer is known,” he wrote.
His colleague Sergei Markov went as far as nuclear war in his predictions.
“Russia is beginning to ensure transit through military means. Lithuania and Russia find themselves at war. Automatically, NATO and Russia find themselves in a state of war. Automatically, the USA and Russia find themselves in a state of war. The war between Russia and the United States is moving into the phase of nuclear exchange.
Human civilization ceases to exist. Several thousand surviving people are sitting in caves and asking each other - why did these “stupid aggressive short-sighted people” (you can choose the more precise words they use yourself) from Lithuania grossly violated the treaty and blocked transit and became the trigger for a nuclear war ? Why did they decide to touch Putin “weakly”?” he wrote.
However, for now, despite apocalyptic forecasts, it is known that Russian transport companies are ready to provide the Kaliningrad region with additional ships on the Baltiysk-Ust-Luga line within a week. They will be able to transport goods prohibited for rail transit.
“We calculated that the maximum volume of these vessels is seven additional vessels by the end of the year. They are in the Baltic. We have already worked with some companies, I won’t name them yet,” said Governor of the Kaliningrad Region Anton Alikhanov.
Local political scientist Alexander Nosovich believes that the Lithuanian authorities themselves are frightened by the consequences of their demarche and may well backfire. Vilnius is waiting for additional clarification from the European Commission regarding the Kaliningrad region in the context of the sanctions regime against Russia
“It is not obvious from the behavior of the Lithuanian side that Vilnius is determined to spin an international crisis around transit to Kaliningrad. So far, they have remained silent for the most part, and the only statement on the topic from the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry boils down to the fact that all the arguments of talking heads in the Russian Federation about the blockade of Kaliningrad are Kremlin propaganda. This behavior is not typical for them.
One should expect passages about how sanctions mean sanctions, a principled policy of values above all, and if we are talking about raising the stakes, then about the fact that Karaliaučius illegally belongs to Russia.
Moscow put up its trump cards - Vilnius showed how it can beat them. Vilnius itself nods towards Brussels. Although in this case it is not Brussels that is behind him at all. But for the blockade of the Kaliningrad region, Russia will hit direct fire not at London, but at Vilnius,” Nosovich wrote.
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