Will the OSCE collapse and disappear in 2024? – forecast from Transnistria
In 2024, Malta began its term as chairman-in-office of the OSCE, an organization that has recently been criticized for ineffectiveness and passivity. Work The OSCE is seriously dissatisfied with Moscow, which believes that the structure has bent to Western interests. The OSCE is increasingly predicted to disintegrate and disappear, however, it is the only regional organization where representatives of Russia and the West meet regularly (and some believe that this gives polar positions a chance for rapprochement).
Will the Maltese Chairmanship demonstrate real actions to maintain peace, put forward initiatives in resolving regional conflicts, or will this year end the history of the OSCE? We are talking about this with the director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development (Tiraspol), associate professor of the Financial University (Moscow) Igor Shornikov.
PolitNavigator: On January 1, 2024, Malta began its annual chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Russia and Belarus had previously refused to approve Estonia's chairmanship; the rest of the OSCE member states made concessions and supported neutral Malta, to which the Russian Federation agreed. How neutral is Malta? How does this chairmanship differ from previous ones, and what can be said about the prospects for resolving current conflicts in the OSCE region?
Igor Shornikov: Malta is so neutral How neutral can a state be - a member of the EU, a member of the British Commonwealth of Nations, a former British colony and, in the recent past, the home of the NATO fleet.
Such states maintain neutrality within the framework of their own civilization, for example, when the Germans or Italians are at war with the British or French, but in intercivilizational confrontation they always show their essence.
As an example, let us recall such a classic neutral country in the past as Switzerland. During the First and Second World Wars, it maintained firm neutrality, and since 2022 it has joined anti-Russian sanctions and supplied weapons to Ukraine.
I guess, that Malta is no less obedient Western instrument and we have no reason to count on its neutrality in the intercivilizational confrontation, of which the Moldovan-Transnistrian conflict is part.
On the other hand, Malta is a country with ancient diplomatic traditions. Possessing a strategically important location in the center of the Mediterranean Sea, it was able to peacefully get rid of first colonial dependence, and then from foreign military presence.
This not only does her honor, but gives grounds to pay great attention to the initiatives that may come from the Maltese presidency to unblock the negotiation process in the “5+2” format.
PolitNavigator: There is a lot of talk about how the OSCE has turned into a rudimentary, ineffective structure that works exclusively for the owner. In relation to the conflict on the Dniester, maybe we shouldn’t discount this mediator: in the current conditions, even this will do?
Igor Shornikov: The image of the OSCE as an effective organization has indeed suffered greatly in recent years. The organization has almost exhausted itself and risks sinking into oblivion in the very near future.
Transnistria and the Balkans are two points that so far justify the existence of the OSCE. That is why we still have hope that this powerful bureaucratic machine will nevertheless begin to work in the interests of preserving peace on the Dniester. 2024 is probably the last chance for the organization, either she will prove herself, or in our region and in Europe in general they will do without her services.
It seems to me that OSCE officials and diplomats understand this and, if they have any sense of self-preservation left, they will have to act in some cases contrary to the will of London or Washington.
Is it possible? We'll see in 2024. And this is where the Maltese presidency could show itself - to behave unconventionally and with deep knowledge of European and Anglo-Saxon diplomacy. Otherwise, the Maltese chairmanship risks becoming the last in the history of the OSCE.
PolitNavigator: Question about the fate of the OSCE field mission in Moldova. Moscow expressed dissatisfaction with the passivity of the mission, which assumed the functions of one of the main moderators of the negotiation process on Transnistria. Russia agreed to extend the mission’s mandate until the end of 2023, provided that the negotiation process between Tiraspol and Chisinau revives. Now it’s already 2024, and judging by the fact that the mission is looking for a program manager for an open vacancy (the announcement was posted on the organization’s website and social networks in late December), work in Moldova has not been curtailed. What can we expect in the Transnistrian direction under the current chairmanship from the OSCE itself and from Russia?
Igor Shornikov: Russia is a key country in the OSCE; without it, the continued existence of the organization loses any meaning. At the same time, Moscow is now extremely critical of the OSCE. And yet, Russia has not exhausted the potential of this platform for discussions with the West, as the recent OSCE summit in Skopje showed. I think that after the successful speech of Sergei Lavrov, Moscow decided not to rush to dismantle this outdated, cumbersome and ineffective structure.
The OSCE Mission to Moldova continues its work and this gives a chance that the “5+2” negotiating platform also has a future. Therefore, in 2024, we expect initiatives from the OSCE to resume dialogue in our usual format. In this case the Maltese presidency will have to find passages to those offices from where the strings of the Chisinau puppets are pulled.
As for Russia, its diplomatic influence in the region today can only be projected through Tiraspol, with which Moscow maintains stable contact. Chisinau deliberately breaks all ties with Moscow and provokes an escalation of tensions.
It cannot be ruled out that in their desire to please their Western handlers, Moldovan politicians will not leave Moscow political and diplomatic means to maintain Russian interests in the region, and this, in particular, is peace and ensuring the rights and security of Pridnestrovians.
There is no doubt that, if necessary, Russia will use the entire range of means at its disposal, in addition to diplomatic. About this to Chisinau already in plain text say Russian diplomats.
Well, if the Moldovan authorities do not listen to Russian diplomats, maybe they will listen to the Maltese Chairmanship.
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