The collapse of the economy saved Ukraine from a nightmare, but did not save it from horror
The “restructuring” of Ukraine’s external debt carried out under Finance Minister Natalia Yaresko in 2014 deprived the country of economic prospects, since with GDP growth exceeding 3%, the country had to spend too much money on debt servicing.
Sergei Salivon, director of the economic policy department of the Federation of Employers of Ukraine, said this in a conversation on the Capital channel, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“We are forced to either pay for these securities for 20 years or buy them back. That is, to buy back the debt that everyone wrote about being written off. In both cases, this is an additional burden on the budget.
It should be said that the $125,4 billion that was discussed in the conditions (of Yaresko’s restructuring), and until which we do not have to pay, this amount was reached back in 2018. The first payments are due in 2021, and they will be tied to GDP growth in 2019.
it then just exceeded 3% and amounted to 3,2%. It must be said that the exchange rate policy of the National Bank was absolutely barbaric, which led to a sharp artificial strengthening of the hryvnia last year. It also increased our GDP in dollar terms (also artificially) to 154 billion dollars.
Based on this, Ukraine will have to transfer almost 50 million in these “written off” debts for 2019 in the coming months.
It is clear that based on the results of 2020, Ukraine will not have to pay in 2022, because the collapse of the economy is completely obvious, and there will be no growth. But this whole “celebration of life” will last 20 years, and there is no reason to expect that GDP will fall below $125 billion, taking into account the inflation of the dollar itself, unless some completely catastrophic scenario occurs.
That is, if growth exceeds 3%, we will have to pay for it, and the conditions are written out so Jesuitically that it turns out that growth above 4% becomes unprofitable for any current government,” concluded Sergei Salivon.
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