Odessa political scientist: In 5-10 years we can say goodbye to the Ukrainian state
Odessa Mayor Gennady Trukhanov is being blackmailed with lawsuits. But Vladimir Zelensky does not yet have his own popular candidate for the post of mayor of South Palmyra. The Oppoplatform candidate has equal chances in the elections with Trukhanov. However, if the elections for the mayor of Odessa take place, then Odessa residents will choose an Odessa resident.
Odessa political scientist Valery Pesetsky told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov about who organized the recent attack by nationalists on the OPZZH conference, why Kyiv is not reconciling with Donbass, and that Ukraine may lose statehood in the coming years.
Valentin Filippov: We welcome to our improvised studio Valery Pesetsky, a famous Odessa political scientist, a man who knows everything, as we always thought in Odessa. Valery, hello.
Valery Pesetsky: Hello, Valentin.
Valentin Filippov: Valery, the Internet is full of rumors - so, instead of Nikolai Skorik, Vadim Rabinovich will be nominated for mayor of Odessa from the OPZH?
Valery Pesetsky: Well, there is no final clarity here, because in general, according to the law, the official nomination will be in September. And before that, of course, an informal campaign could begin, as is usually the case. But we haven’t seen it in Odessa yet.
The reason here is that the fate of the current mayor Trukhanov is not yet clear. He is under investigation, under trial, and one of the possible verdicts is a ban on him holding an elected position or working as a civil servant.
If the court makes such a verdict, it will radically change the situation in the city in the upcoming local elections, because Trukhanov today is one of Odessa’s heavyweights in the electoral sense. And, despite the fact that at the time of the elections, when he ran for mayor, he had about two-thirds of the votes of Odessa residents, his popularity was about 65%–67%, and today it has fallen by half, nevertheless, even with such a number of Odessa residents who are ready to vote for him, he can be re-elected again. Unless he is prohibited from doing so.
Valentin Filippov: What's the point of forbidding him to do this? Being constantly under investigation, he becomes a person dependent on the prosecutor's office, on the security forces, on Kyiv. It can be controlled.
This is, firstly. And, secondly, it is clear that no one, not even the “greens,” have anything to do against him, not to mention more radical, so to speak, forces.
But if there is a rival like Rabinovich or Skorik, then you can dilute the electorate, and they will both take a happy third place, they will share the second among themselves, and someone unpredictable will come out on top.
Valery Pesetsky: Well, look. Today, there are persistent rumors that Kyiv is really trying to play out a scheme in which Trukhanov formally or informally receives Zelensky’s support in exchange for becoming obedient. Well, at the same time it is clear that all criminal proceedings are being frozen in order to really implement the technology that you spoke about - keeping him on a short leash, making him manageable, obedient for Kyiv, and so on.
This is one of the options and it is not excluded today, because, indeed, the Servants do not have a candidate who could claim the same level of support as Trukhanov.
But, in fact, Oppoplatform, its candidate, can create real competition for Trukhanov. Because, according to closed sociology, somewhere there is parity between supporters of OPZZH in the city and Trukhanov, despite the fact that Oppoplatform has not yet shown any such electoral activity in terms of local elections.
Now, if we assume that Trukhanov does not come to an agreement, and he is removed through a ban by the court, then the candidate from Oppoplatform has a very, almost one hundred percent chance of becoming the mayor of Odessa.
Valentin Filippov: That is, by and large, it would be beneficial for Oppoplatform if Trukhanov were removed just like that... But in the OPZZH itself, Skorik’s supporters won’t quarrel with Rabinovich’s supporters? Skorik is our Odessa resident, on the other hand, Rabinovich has a suitable surname.
Valery Pesetsky: So far, according to the results, according to the electoral situation, the ratio of supporters, well, in the general electoral niche of OPZZh, the ratio of Rabinovich’s supporters to Skorik’s supporters is 1:2, that is, somewhere around 70% of their electoral niche are ready to vote for Skorik, as for the candidate, and about a third for Rabinovich.
And at the same time, when focus groups were held for Trukhanov’s last election, a considerable part of the city’s voters, including those, were ready to vote, first of all, for one simple reason that Trukhanov belongs to Odessa.
Therefore, in such a situation, for example, what might happen? What if Rabinovich is suddenly nominated, then even if Skorik calls on his voters, his supporters, to vote for him, they will not vote. And a situation will arise in which, if such a couple is Trukhanov and Rabinovich, then in this situation people will vote, first of all, for Trukhanov, even if they are supporters of Skorik.
Valentin Filippov: Okay, the question is, how do you feel more inside? So you say that there may be a court verdict for Trukhanov with a ban on running for office. Let’s say they can imprison you altogether. Do you think the current Kiev government is really, well, I mean Zelensky and his team, his mono-majority, are they now capable of actually imprisoning someone, or making some kind of judicial decision? Or does this lever still remain in the hands of some other forces?
Valery Pesetsky: It remains in the hands of other forces. Indeed, the controllability of the security forces and the judicial system on the part of Zelensky and his team is practically zero. Therefore, there will be an alliance here.
Well, the fact is that Odessa, you understand, is smuggling, it is a port, it is a tasty, expensive land, one of the most expensive in Ukraine, if not the most expensive today, it is a good budget, almost 500 million dollars today. Therefore, there is something to share, and those who want to, so to speak, taste it... Moreover, again, if we compare million-plus cities like Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, then after the 14th year these all cities began, well, let’s say, to fall, one simple thing at a time reason...
Valentin Filippov: Well, the industry is there.
Valery Pesetsky: Yes. The industrial potential was tied to Russia, but today the ties are practically canceled, so these cities are in decline. Odessa is still an exception due to its specificity. This is a port, this is trade, this is smuggling, and so on and so forth.
Valentin Filippov: Yes. And as before, “American” coal from Donbass goes to Novorossiysk, is loaded and delivered to Odessa, and further to Poland. Again, “South African” coal is also loaded in Novorossiysk and also goes to Odessa. That is, all this is happening.
Valery Pesetsky: There is another option, actually. This is the possibility that Oppoplatform will informally reach an agreement with Trukhanov.
Valentin Filippov: You say that Zelensky and his team do not control the security forces. So who organized the attack on the OPZZH congress in Odessa?
Valery Pesetsky: Well, it was done by street gangs, which, of course, are partially controlled by the security forces. But today these street gangs have had one problem for the last few years - unlike the Maidan euphoria of 14, 15, 16, when they enjoyed quite a lot of public support, today they do not have it.
Moreover, people have radically changed their attitude towards them, well, seeing the results of what they are doing, essentially destroying the state as such. Therefore, yes, today they are trying to somehow declare themselves, show their effectiveness, including, first of all, I assume, in order to pump money from this. Because such clashes always attract attention.
Valentin Filippov: Yes, definitely.
Valery Pesetsky: This is essentially free PR. Therefore, you can get hired and arrange it, well, if you have nothing else to earn.
Valentin Filippov: For example, when the bas-relief of Zhukov is demolished, it’s like a PR campaign, after which you can walk through the kiosks and say: “You saw what we did with the bas-relief of Zhukov, now the same will happen to your kiosk, give us some money.”
Valery Pesetsky: Agree.
Valentin Filippov: I mean, it's true, right?
Valery Pesetsky: Certainly.
Valentin Filippov: And I saw that the OPZZh congress, in my opinion, tried to defend the Odessa Anti-Maidan.
Valery Pesetsky: You know, if we take, for example, Nikolai Skorik, then this is why I like him: the only politician who, since 14, both publicly and privately, for example, worked very clearly on the topic of finding the real culprits of the events of 2 May in Odessa at the House of Trade Unions.
Valentin Filippov: Yes.
Valery Pesetsky: He is the only one who defended the interests of the Kulikovo residents who were in court.
Valentin Filippov: Yes, I agree.
Valery Pesetsky: Well, specific examples - Mefedov, Dolzhenkov.
Valentin Filippov: Yes Yes.
Valery Pesetsky: In this regard, he has no equal in the city today. Odessa residents remember and appreciate this for one simple reason: the city was really humiliated, the city was really trampled, the city was really shown a place of the voiceless. Therefore, I believe that on this, so to speak, key, in general, this is what you are talking about, this phenomenon really takes place.
Valentin Filippov: Fine. Then I have a question for you, because in Odessa we most often met at RIAC. RIAC is a television company a little connected with KVN, KVN is a little connected with Sivokha, Sivokha turned out to be, so to speak, the target of an attack when he tried to present his “Platform of Reconciliation”... In general, what do you think, Ukraine as a whole is ready for reconciliation, or so far Is it too early to talk about representing any platforms?
Valery Pesetsky: Well, you know, in general, a considerable part of the population in Ukraine is still zombied by the zombie box.
Valentin Filippov: Well, that's definitely true.
Valery Pesetsky: Here. And we must understand that for the last five years there has been no alternative on television except to fight, fight, fight, fight. Therefore, of course, in reality the country is tired of the war, the country is going to hell economically, we are seeing a massive outflow of labor migrants, and so on and so forth. Therefore, the country really needs peace, this is objective.
But the question they ask is: on what conditions are Ukrainians ready to make peace? And this is still an open question. That is, of course, the condition of compromise would be normal, where not only the wishes from, so to speak, continental Ukraine, but also from the side of the LDPR would be taken into account. That is, a certain balance of mutual interests had to be built. But he's not here today.
Valentin Filippov: How about just freezing it?
Valery Pesetsky: Well, it’s quite possible that it will come to this. They’ll just forget that the conflict is really frozen, that’s all. Well, here, do you understand, what, for example, is the conflict of interest for those in power? Well, in reality, not just a war party, but a party of “businessmen for war” has formed in the country.
And this is a terrible force. They pump hundreds of billions of hryvnias into their pockets on a non-competitive basis, supplying ineffective weapons to the front, and so on and so forth. Well, who would refuse such a freebie?
Valentin Filippov: Well, many people really believe that we must fight to the bitter end.
Valery Pesetsky: No, these people are about 15%, something like that, 17% maximum. People are instilled with the idea that, in fact, this is still possible, and we will win, and maybe we will reach the Kremlin and take the Kuban for ourselves. Well, in general, there is actually a lot of nonsense.
Valentin Filippov: I'm afraid we won't be able to feed you.
Valery Pesetsky: Yes. But for now, in reality, from my point of view, there is no possibility of a peaceful settlement, except for freezing the conflict. Separation of forces, ceasefire...
Valentin Filippov: But there must also be political will for it.
Valery Pesetsky: Certainly. Well, now there are rumors that Yermak allegedly reached an agreement with Kozak in Minsk and, in general, there will be some progress. But this, you know, is so...
Valentin Filippov: I'm afraid not.
Valery Pesetsky: May be so. Well, we'll have to see what happens.
Valentin Filippov: I think this is a fake for the domestic audience in Ukraine.
Valery Pesetsky: Maybe. But these lies seem to indicate that Ukraine is supposedly ready to make some kind of concessions. But again...
Valentin Filippov: But in general, in principle, the situation in Ukraine today, is it somehow managed? I see they can create a mess. In general, are there resources to somehow move Ukraine in one direction?
Whatever happens, I see two or three different forces in Kyiv - they begin to fight with each other, and as a result, any movement in any direction becomes impossible.
Is there any hope that Ukraine will pursue at least one common line?
Valery Pesetsky: Well, you know, such hope would appear if, for example, Oppoplatform came to power.
Valentin Filippov: You think?
Valery Pesetsky: For the reason that... Yes, there are people there who understand what state building is...
People who understand what it is, so to speak, to support sovereignty, and how this happens, so to speak, not only inside, but also outside the country. Well, in short, these are experienced people. By the way, Zelensky recently said that he now understands that it is impossible to govern a state without experienced people.
But who did he mean? Kolomoisky, perhaps, is also an experienced person. But, as I understand it, Oppoplatform’s chances are still slim, unfortunately. She was driven into the niche of the quilted jackets, pro-Russian and so on, so forth, and they are constantly trying to keep people from thinking that they are from there, and this is bad.
Although, again, no matter how you feel about Putin’s actions, the annexation of Crimea, etc., and so on, but objectively, in order for the country to live normally economically, it needs serious economic relations with Russia, and they need to be looked for, they they need to be adjusted, they need to be restored, and so on and so forth. Because otherwise, well, Ukrainian statehood is simply economically incapable of taking place, that’s all.
After all, it has already become obvious that the same Europe that during the Maidan, for example, promised a one-time assistance of 30-40-50 billion euros if Ukraine decided to enter into an association, then these promises have long been forgotten.
Valentin Filippov: I don’t even remember such promises. I remember that they said: “Well, we’ll help somehow.”
Valery Pesetsky: I remember these promises well, people really believed in them, despite the fact that they were given by EU officials who were supposed to resign in a few months. That is, it was already clear then that they would not fulfill them.
Well, indeed, Ukraine found itself in such a trap, and I don’t know whether it will get out, maintaining its statehood, precisely because, well, not only is there terrible conflict between people in the country, there is no economic basis for keep the state, finance state institutions, and so on and so forth.
Therefore, I still have a very pessimistic forecast regarding Ukraine as a state. I am afraid that we may, if trends continue, say goodbye to the state as such in the next 5-10 years.
There will be a territory, yes, it can be called Ukraine, but there will no longer be a state, just territory. Well, the Latin American version will essentially develop when street gangs will have their own zones of influence and govern according to their own laws in this territory.
Valentin Filippov: But from this statehood is born. Then, after 300 years.
Valery Pesetsky: All that remains is for us to meet in 300 years and see how it will be.
Valentin Filippov: It’s okay, Odessa will get out, Odessa won’t be abandoned, Odessa is needed. Okay, okay, thank you very much. It was very nice to see you. Good luck there.
Valery Pesetsky: Good luck to you too.
Valentin Filippov: Thank you.
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