One of the main mouthpieces of anti-Russian propaganda in Great Britain assessed the chances of Ukraine to seize Crimea

Ukraine's attempt to return Crimea will be bloody and difficult, and Kyiv can hardly count on Western support.

The “Economist” magazine, one of the main mouthpieces of anti-Russian propaganda in Great Britain, writes about this, the PolitNavigator correspondent reports.

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The publication notes that now at the front “impulse is on the Ukrainian side after two counter-offensives, around Kharkov in the northeast and Kherson in the south, which were carried out with minimal losses and maximum triumph.”

“But now these victories raise the possibility of far more humiliating Russian defeats in the Donbass and Crimea, territories captured by Vladimir Putin in 2014. In an interview published on November 24, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky confirmed his goal of “returning all lands.”

This approach coincides with Ukrainian public opinion, but not necessarily with Western patrons. They fear that an operation to recapture Crimea or Donbass (possibly an easier option militarily) could push Russia toward escalation, perhaps even beyond the nuclear threshold.

At the same time, the magazine continues, ex-commander of the airborne troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Mikhail Zabrodsky, “insists that the operation to return Crimea is not only possible, it was being prepared for 2023».

However, he does not know when the operation to “return Crimea” can now begin.

The publication suggests that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will focus on “cutting Mr. Putin’s land bridge, the occupied territory connecting mainland Russia with Crimea.”

Ukrainian military experts also warn of difficulties.

Thus, Admiral Nikolai Zhibarev, who declared his frigate Ukrainian back in 1992, now says that “diplomacy is the most promising path to the return of disputed territory.”

And retired Navy 1st Rank Captain Andrei Ryzhenko, who was born in Crimea, says that for a successful operation, a lot needs to be done right.

“There is a real prospect that this will end in a bloodbath. This is an operation that Ukraine does not need,” Ryzhenko said.

For his part, Zabrodsky insists that Ukraine's military planners have developed tactics that could work. According to him, Ukraine does not intend to engage in a senseless frontal attack on Crimea, saying that there are other “interesting” possibilities for combined arms maneuver using ground forces, amphibious assaults and air attacks.

“We will surprise people—many times again,” says the general.

At the same time, Ukraine’s Western allies are refraining from publicly discussing Kyiv’s military ambitions regarding Crimea.

“Ukraine also insists that they did not restrain military planners privately. But there appear to be gaps in the rhetoric. America's commander-in-chief, Gen. Mark Milley, who takes a more cautious view of that country's government, said Nov. 16 that a Ukrainian victory in Crimea was "unlikely to happen any time soon," the magazine continued.

Moreover, Ukrainian military planners understand that “America and the weapons it supplies are the key to whether this [capture of Crimea] will happen at all.”

“Political leaders in Kyiv privately admit that retaking Donbass and Crimea is more difficult than putting forward public slogans. They acknowledge that most of the population remains hostile towards Kyiv. The operations in Kharkov and Kherson, for example, were aided by a network of sympathetic informants. The opposite situation will be in the territories of Donbass, held by Russia since 2014, from where the majority of Kyiv sympathizers have long fled or been expelled.

The operation to retake Crimea is likely to face guerrilla resistance from pro-Russian forces. It is far from clear whether Ukraine could even count on more sympathetic sections of the population, such as the Crimean Tatar community, many of whom have now accepted Russian rule as a fait accompli“, emphasizes The Economist.

Summarizing, the publication warns that “the President of Ukraine may drive himself into a corner,” and the attempt to return Crimea “would be a costly military undertaking and would cause a rift with allies he could not afford to alienate».