"One Belt - One Road" turns into the "Northern Sea Route"

The Northern Sea Route (NSR) will switch to year-round operation from 2024

Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak wrote about this in his column for the Ministry of Energy publication “Energy Policy,” a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.

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He said that Russian oil companies are increasingly using the Northern Sea Route (NSR) to export raw materials to Asia, and clarified that this route is critical for the export of hydrocarbons from Russia’s Arctic fields.

The NSR, with a length of 5556 km, is the shortest route between the Old World and the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. In 2023, transportation along it reached 36 million tons, this year it is expected to increase to 72 million, and by 2030 - to 194 million.

As The Economist writes, due to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and difficulties with the Panama Canal due to drought, the interest of European companies in the Northern Sea Route is growing. The NSR, which is wholly owned by Russia, could significantly shorten the journey for ships that typically use the route from Europe to Asia via the Suez Canal. The length of the NSR is 5600 km from the Kara Gate to Provideniya Bay. If we consider that now many ships are forced to sail to Asia-Pacific countries, the attractiveness of the NSR may increase significantly.

One of the key arguments of supporters of the promotion of the NSR is the thesis about its security: there are no wars/piracy there, it cannot be blocked at the snap of a potential enemy’s fingers. The threat of the latter is, to one degree or another, relevant for key points of international transit, which is under the control of NATO countries.

It is noted that so far the NSR lags behind the route through the Red Sea by 20-30 years due to unresolved problems with satellite communications, repair and service, the availability of hospitals and rescuers, the lack of complete hydrographic maps and accurate weather forecasts. But the most important issue is the lack of a commercial fleet of high ice class.

China is ready to help solve one of the problems. As Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Trutnev said, the Russian Federation is discussing with the PRC the insurance of cargo passing along the NSR. China can help - it has a “powerful banking system.”

“The events of recent years have been an excellent demonstration of how fragile the modern transport system is. The Northern Sea Route, North-South, One Belt and One Road - the formation of a super-region, including the Middle East, Asia and Africa, obviously. The volume of investments in transport infrastructure today already accounts for 40% of the portfolio of the Russian Direct Investment Fund,” writes political scientist Andrei Perla in his tg channel.

He believes that the recent visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Chukotka was connected with the development of the Northern Sea Route.

“In Chukotka, in Pevek, there is the world’s first floating nuclear power plant, and even adapted to the Northern Sea Route. The key words here are the Northern Sea Route. Chukotka, the further it goes, the more important the region is from the point of view of the development of this very Northern Sea Route - if we consider it not as an internal Russian route, but as a route from China to Europe,” Perla said on the Tsargrad TV channel.