With one bulldozer: Saakashvili will easily take Odessa, driven to despair - Valery Pesetsky
Trukhanov cannot come to an agreement with Skorik. Skorik cannot come to an agreement with Rabinovich. Rabinovich cannot come to an agreement with Trukhanov. It is beneficial for Zelensky to get rid of Saakashvili by making him mayor of Odessa.
Odessa political scientist Valery Pesetsky told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov about the sovereignization of Odessa in the conditions of the Ukrainian default, and about the struggle of external managers for the city, which became a symbol of the “Russian Spring”.
Valentin Filippov: In our improvised studio in Odessa. Odessa-Sevastopol. Valery Pesetsky.
Valery, hello.
Valery Pesetsky: Hello, Sevastopol.
Valentin Filippov: Hello Odessa.
Valery, I wanted to ask about Odessa, but I’ll ask not about Odessa first.
Here in Russia we do not understand many of the actions of the Ukrainian authorities. Well, okay, they banned VK, they banned Odnoklassniki, they banned email for some reason. Well, okay, maybe this is such a demonstrative step.
I don’t understand, how can Moscow State University and the Hermitage be banned? That is, what will it consist of? Citizens of Ukraine, having arrived in Moscow, do not have the right to visit the museum, or are they unable to study at Moscow State University, or will MSU diplomas not be considered valid on the territory of Ukraine? What are these sanctions and bans imposed on Moscow State University and the Hermitage?
Valery Pesetsky: Well, the meaning is very simple. These are, in general, symbolic things that do not carry any pragmatic content. And since we are talking about well-known brands, a feeling of combativeness and aggressiveness of our president is created. Well, let the Kremlin ban tomorrow, you know, something else like that.
Valentin Filippov: You can't go to Red Square, for example.
Valery Pesetsky: Yes. The mausoleum will be prohibited. Well, what is there, he can dream up a lot. There are many things that can be banned in Russia while sitting in Ukraine.
Valentin Filippov: That is, this apparently applies to citizens of Ukraine or is it for everyone, or people who visited, for example, the Hermitage, sanctions will be imposed on them, like people who drove across the bridge to Crimea.
Valery Pesetsky: Maybe you are right. Well, here to predict the trajectory of our government’s delirium is, in general, to see a psychiatrist.
Valentin Filippov: I think they can still ban it?
Valery Pesetsky: They're weird. Yes it's true. They are and will, I think, continue to be weird. Well, what to do? This is the country we live in today. Purely through the looking glass.
Valentin Filippov: Fine. Valery, I have a question about my beloved Odessa. Local elections are quite possibly approaching. Mayoral elections again. Here it is in the fall. Things are going strange for us. There is a “cotton” electorate, the overwhelming majority, probably 80 percent. Well, according to my memory, it has always been like this, 80 percent. Maybe now it’s a little less.
We have Trukhanov, who is trampling on this electorate. We have Skorik, who is a contender. Looks like our guy. And now Rabinovich seems to be appearing, who, in general, is also laying claim to this electoral field. Do we even have any hope that the “cotton” politicians will somehow come to an agreement among themselves? Or will they cut us down to the end?
Valery Pesetsky: It looks like they will fight to the end. Although, of course, a normal, sensible voter would really like there to be a unification. In the end, if we leave the city’s property out of the equation, what will the “cotton” politicians, as you called them, share? It seems like nothing. But nonetheless.
Therefore, I think, of course, the dog is buried in the fact that the fight is for good things, which Odessa certainly has. Today, from my point of view, besides Trukhanov, Skorik and Rabinovich, there is perhaps another political force that may well lay claim to them. This is a nominee from the Servants of the People.
Valentin Filippov: In Odessa, is the “cotton” electorate still ready to vote for “servants of the people”?
Valery Pesetsky: Today the situation in our country is phenomenal. Because what are “servants of the people”? This is fiction.
Valentin Filippov: Well yes.
Valery Pesetsky: Phantom. It's nothing. And this “nothing” collected 73 percent in the presidential election.
Valentin Filippov: This is logical, it seems to me. People thought that nothing was better than what we had.
Valery Pesetsky: I agree. But, today, be that as it may, despite the fact that it is already obvious to many that Zelensky is a continuation of Poroshenko. However, his level of support is quite high. According to various ratings, 45-50%.
Valentin Filippov: This is a lot for Ukraine.
Valery Pesetsky: This is a lot – given an absolutely failed policy, both domestic, economic and foreign. Therefore, if we talk about Odessa, then today in the city, at least about 30-35% are Zelensky supporters.
Valentin Filippov: Well, that would be if Zelensky ran for mayor. He's funny. Indeed, no matter what kind of brute he is, no matter how much of a continuation of Poroshenko he is, he’s still funny, right? And Odessa residents are pleased with this. So, he's funny, isn't that good?
Valery Pesetsky: Not bad, but the fact is that this has nothing to do with Zelensky’s nomination for mayor of Odessa. Current popularity.
Valentin Filippov: Unfortunately.
Valery Pesetsky: Because, look, remember the elections to the Verkhovna Rada. People who sat in the Verkhovna Rada for 20 years, who fed their constituencies so well that there was simply nowhere else to go, and they voted for them.
Kivalov loses to pizzeria owner Leonov in his district. Boris Kolesnikov on his own, Elena Bondarenko on hers, and so on, and so on. To list... And who are they losing to? Absolutely unknown, empty people who have nothing at all except their last name. Well, maybe there is property. I mean in a political sense.
And this phenomenon is in Odessa. By the way, about six months ago such a unique sociological survey was conducted, it was published, in which the position of the candidate for mayor from the “Servant of the People” was listed as “Mr. X”, well, that is, no one, some kind of monkey. And a third of Odessa was ready to vote for him.
Valentin Filippov: I understand the logic back in the fall, that people simply, since they trust Zelensky, they think: “We will vote for whoever Zelensky says, and Zelensky will have a majority, and Zelensky will finally be able to “just stop shooting,” allow everyone to speak and study in the language they see fit, and allow them to use social networks again.”
That is, Zelensky would have done all this, but he does not have enough deputies in the Verkhovna Rada, or something else. And we will vote for whoever he says, and he will have it all. Well, is it logical? And he will do it all. So, in Minsk they will finally reach an agreement. And there is nothing to negotiate there. Everything is written there in black and white, what is there to negotiate? Do it, that's all.
Valery Pesetsky: Nobody will perform Minsk.
Valentin Filippov: Yes, I know. I already see.
Valery Pesetsky: He exhausted his usefulness for Kyiv when he stopped the situation from a crushing defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the east. This was the whole point of these agreements. As soon as it’s over, well, that’s it, it just hangs there, basically, like a useless burden. And no one will be in Kyiv...
Moreover, well, you understand, if we call things by their proper names, if we have already gone from Odessa to the east, then what Kiev wants... He proposes, in essence, to create a cauldron for the LDPR on the Ukrainian-Russian border, having gained control, Well, then deal with them not in a brotherly way, I think so. There is no other way.
Valentin Filippov: The Minsk agreements say it differently. So what's the point. I like something else. You know, I am following the Minsk agreements, I have several friends there who are participating in the negotiations, we are constantly in touch with them. And so they tell me what is happening in Minsk.
They talk, and the next day Kyiv gives a press release about what happened, and all this did not happen. That is, Kyiv says: “We declared this, we did this, we are there...”. None of this is happening in Minsk itself. That is, they do not make any of these statements, they have some kind of double Minsk. There, in Kyiv, they write to themselves what they did in Minsk, what they declared, what they agreed on, because in reality this is not the case.
Valery Pesetsky: We see a lot of everything that is reported to us, and what is not in reality. We're used to it. This doesn’t surprise us, it doesn’t even upset us.
Valentin Filippov: Fine. I have a completely different question for you. You say Mr. X. Could this Mr. X from Zelensky be the same Saakashvili, for example? A new face, a completely new, green face.
Valery Pesetsky: Saakashvili. This option is not excluded, of course, that he can be nominated for the post of mayor of Odessa. And there are a number of reasons from different sides that, in general, can put the puzzle together so that this will happen. Well, first. Zelensky does not need Saakashvili either in the government or in Kyiv.
Valentin Filippov: Well, I guess.
Valery Pesetsky: He understands perfectly well that this person, if after a while he is allowed to grow, say, in the same Cabinet of Ministers, he will kick Shmygal out of there, and then he will rise up against Zelensky. And he will succeed.
Valentin Filippov: Well, he won’t be able to cope with Avakov.
Valery Pesetsky: Well, here is the first meeting of the Reform Council. And who does Mr. Saakashvili invite and show everyone this? Exclusively employees of the US Embassy, who are the real managers of our country, unlike Zelensky, Shmygal and other patriots, non-patriots, greens, white-blues and some others.
He clearly sends a signal about who... and whose interests he represents here. Why am I just talking? Zelensky, accordingly, in this situation, for this reason, he did not give him a deputy prime minister. He understood that after three months as Deputy Prime Minister, he would become Prime Minister.
Valentin Filippov: Can.
Valery Pesetsky: And that’s how it works here. We don’t even have titles, but real power... Well, today, in fact, the Minister of Internal Affairs Avakov has much more real power than Zelensky.
Valentin Filippov: Well, whoever has the tanks has the power.
Valery Pesetsky: Therefore, Saakashvili, being prime minister, could well take on this role. Therefore, Zelensky will try to somehow remove him from Kyiv. And one of these options, which again may coincide with the interests of the US Embassy, is the mayorship in Odessa.
Valentin Filippov: Well, here’s my question about the mayor’s office in Odessa. Look, you have already put forward this logic that Ukraine is facing an internal default. We all talk about the external default, but we forget about the internal one, that tomorrow Ukraine will not be able to finance many budget items that were mandatory. This is medicine, after all, this is higher education. And it is quite possible that the regions will have to bear these expenses themselves.
Valery Pesetsky: Due to the economic situation, this is simply an inevitable process. All that is broadcast today to the regions, the center, Kyiv, is debt. That is, Kyiv is incurring debts, and these debts must be paid from taxes coming from the regions. This is already obvious to everyone today. Moreover, if previously there was at least some balance, the regions received something back, today debts are growing so quickly that tomorrow there will be nothing at all for the regions to receive from Kyiv.
Today everyone really understands this, and they understand that today they need to start preparing some kind of life preservers for themselves. So that the regions do not choke, so to speak, into these funnels with their heads into which Kyiv is dragging us.
Valentin Filippov: Well, this is, in fact, centrifugal forces starting to work.
Valery Pesetsky: This process, I call it today to avoid a dirty word, in Ukraine – the process of regional sovereignization. Although there is one word that seems to mean this. But we won't use it.
Valentin Filippov: We won't, we won't. There's a deadline for him.
Valery Pesetsky: This is abusive, it is banned in Ukraine.
Valentin Filippov: How quickly can this all start? Now, if there are no more IMF loans, let’s say in the near future, no tranches. That is, as far as I understand, IMF tranches are only enough to repay 20% of obligations. I heard something like that there. Yes? There is nothing to cover 80% of debt obligations.
Valery Pesetsky: Nothing. 17 billion to be paid, and from the IMF we may receive 3...3,5 billion. Well, this 20% will eventually be withdrawn. And it is unknown whether we will get it. So far we only receive promises, and each time the obligations that we must fulfill under this promise for the country grow. Therefore, no one knows or understands what additional obligations the IMF will issue tomorrow so that we can receive their little money.
Valentin Filippov: OK then. But this centrifugal movement cannot lead to a bloody civil conflict?
Valery Pesetsky: Well, let's hope it doesn't. Although it cannot be ruled out, I can’t imagine today that Kyiv tomorrow will be like the Soviet government in its time, remember, yes, it sent food detachments to get grain. Send Avakov’s food detachments to pump taxes from the regions and also bring food from there?
I can’t imagine what it will look like, in fact, if we talk about a military conflict, civil confrontation or something else. It seems to me that in the end the president will pretend that he is the president of the entire country, and he controls it. And the regions will be on their own, and will pretend that they obey and see Zelensky as president.
Valentin Filippov: I think that Odessa simply won’t cope. I remember in Soviet times we had 15 universities. Now there are more of them. For some reason, it seems to me that Odessa will not be able to support universities, for example, in such numbers, at least.
Valery Pesetsky: So they are not needed in such quantities.
Valentin Filippov: Yes, it is clear.
Valery Pesetsky: I believe that if Odessa returns to the tsarist model, in the number of universities and so on, then this will be quite enough. After all, if previously universities graduated the elite, now who do they graduate? Biomass?
Valentin Filippov: Depends on what. For example, the Kivalovo Academy produces parasites.
Valery Pesetsky: Well, yes. Prosecutors, judges. Elite corrupt officials. Corrupt elite. Absolutely right. But, again, in fact, the real needs of the city and the country for all these so-called higher education personnel are insignificant.
Moreover, if you look today at the government vertical, which seems to be saturated with doctors of science, candidates and people who have five higher education diplomas and so on. Well, look at their level of competence. After all, he doesn’t exist at all. And this is evidence that real education is useless.
Valentin Filippov: Valery, no offense. I don’t believe in Doctor of Sciences in the humanities at all. These dissertations were on sale, in general, there were a lot of them. I still believe in techies, because there’s no escape here, but the humanities, in my opinion, are just being churned out.
Valery Pesetsky: Yes. But it is, in fact, everywhere today. What sets? I think I read a year ago that enrollments at the Nikolaev Shipbuilding Institute for Construction, Electronics, and something else were being accepted for 1-2 people each.
Valentin Filippov: Yes Yes Yes. So in Odessa, too, it has already begun in technical universities, when enrollment is very reduced, simply no one is attending. And they are not recruiting anyone.
Valery Pesetsky: I have a friend who is a teacher at the Soviet-era refrigeration institute, as it is now called the academy or something else, two people in the group. There are, in my opinion, three people at the Faculty of Thermophysics. This is the entire course. Well, this is a total disaster.
Valentin Filippov: But all prosecutors. Everyone at the tax office wants to work, everyone at customs wants to work.
I have this question for you. If this system of regional sovereigntization goes ahead. It is clear that perhaps not all regions will cope. And some that do well will arouse interest. Is there such a danger that external allies will begin to help some regions separately from the rest of Ukraine?
That is, I am actually hinting at the same Odessa, where the United States is very interested in some ports. You can remember TIS, Stavnitser. Here, again, is Saakashvili. What is he doing in Odessa? He runs around, presses the ports, we remember, the bosses change. Again, well, Moscow might also be interested. Will Odessa not become, so to speak, a bone of contention without Ukraine and other states?
Valery Pesetsky: And this can, of course, happen. But from my point of view, of course, today, both in Odessa and throughout Ukraine, the Americans rule the roost.
Valentin Filippov: Well, that is a given.
Valery Pesetsky: And their interests. Here, no matter how you treat them, emotionally, or in some other way, the fact remains a fact. They decide what will happen here, they coordinate all the appointments, elections, etc., etc. I mean, first of all, key cities and places. It is clear that they are not interested in some village that was killed and so on. Therefore, Odessa, you see, already has a very high sacred meaning. Odessa, as it happened, at one time became, so to speak, an imperial-forming city of the Russian Empire.
Valentin Filippov: Yes.
Valery Pesetsky: And on a symbolic level, it has remained the same city to this day, almost on a par with the same Sevastopol, well, it has a slightly different specificity, more military.
Valentin Filippov: Yes, well, Sevastopol is Sevastopol, Odessa is Odessa. This is the capital of Novorissiya, the Novorossiysk Territory, a Potemkin idea.
Valery Pesetsky: Therefore, due to the fact that today there is a so-called hybrid war, which is going on between countries, all countries, by and large, including Russia - the USA, China - the USA and so on. Because of this, for example, to deprive Odessa of its imperial symbol of the Russian Empire, I think, first of all, is in the interests of the United States.
How can this be organized? Yes, very simple. Imagine that tomorrow Saakashvili is elected mayor of Odessa in the first round, receiving more than half of the votes of Odessa residents. This will be dispersed later, this is a song. This is a colossal real humiliation.
Valentin Filippov: No, well, he can get 50% of those who came to the elections, and not of...
Valery Pesetsky: No, of course. But I can even explain the technique, how Saakashvili can catch up with his rating within a week. You see, it's very simple. He will sit on several excavators, surrounded by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, drive to the Odessa slopes and begin to demolish everything that Trukhanov’s gang has built there.
Valentin Filippov: Yes. And that it’s Kostusev’s gang, and that it’s Bodelan’s gang, and that it’s Gurvits’ gang. That's all.
Valery Pesetsky: All. But now the largest seizures are associated with Trukhanov. The city is completely against this. But this is the only way to make an instant rating of Saakashvili, and he is capable, unlike other candidates, of similar actions, which will immediately bypass the rating of Trukhanov and any other candidate who will be nominated. Because the people thirst for revenge, for social justice.
Valentin Filippov: I must say that when in 2014 in Sevastopol the military simply blew up a sixteen-story building at the entrance to the bay, the people gave a standing ovation, and I even remember that they called me from Odessa and said: “What, really? They took it like this and like this?” I say: “Yes, that’s it. They took it and blew it to hell without understanding it.”
Valery Pesetsky: No, well, everyone’s had enough. Neither go to the sea nor sit on the beach. Well, what is it like for people who grew up here, were born here, and so on. And yet they understand that all these, so to speak, builders ultimately receive approval from the mayor’s office. Therefore, hatred towards them is very high.
Burn them... well, if only the power would weaken, I think they would just start burning them. Just got it. We're fed up with the attitude of masters towards slaves. Well, who are Odessa residents for them? Well, no one. Dust. Do you understand?
Therefore, I think that if Saakashvili... and I think, he will be provided, if necessary, with such a passage to the stage.
Valentin Filippov: And if, nevertheless, Skorik, Rabinovich, Trukhanov find a common language and understand that they need to defend themselves. That is, is there any chance at all that they will find a common language?
Valery Pesetsky: Well, I’m afraid that there is no chance, although, as it were, according to rumors, Trukhanov and Rabinovich have a common business interest, there is even a common business partner, but this is according to rumors, whose face no one has seen. Do you know who I mean? I can tell you the last name. Haberdasher.
Valentin Filippov: Listen, Galanternik, he is a business partner, in my opinion, of everyone.
Valery Pesetsky: Here. So thanks to this, he, in fact, is the real business owner of Odessa. And a lot depends on his support or lack of support. Why am I saying this, that, in fact, even this factor, it seems to me, suggests the only opportunity for the same Rabinovich to agree to leak the mayoral elections by the OPZZH in favor of Trukhanov. This is how the agreement can be implemented. There is even a candidate who is absolutely unknown in the political sense. Tanya Plachkova. Have you heard of this one? No, well, the name is famous.
Valentin Filippov: The surname is famous. But she has nothing to do with Ivan Plachkov.
Valery Pesetsky: It doesn't. And I thought it was my daughter. I checked. Doesn't have it.
Valentin Filippov: What if we nominate Galanternik himself? Imagine, Vladimir Ilyich is the mayor of Odessa.
Valery Pesetsky: Oh, that certainly sounds cool. It's true. Vladimir Ilyich is cool. This is just an unkillable election slogan.
Valentin Filippov: And, most importantly, you don’t decommunize. And many would vote for Vladimir Ilyich.
Valery Pesetsky: Agree.
Valentin Filippov: OK. Fine. Thanks a lot. I still don't understand anything. But I think that someone will listen to our interview more carefully and understand something.
In general, I wish Odessa would somehow get out. I'm sure she'll get out of it. Another plus for sure.
Valery Pesetsky: Let's believe that we have this left over from the Empire.
Valentin Filippov: I would really like these words to be heard somewhere in the Kremlin, that Odessa is a very sacred place for the Russian Empire, for the Russian Federation, because, in my opinion, they don’t remember this. You remember this.
Valery Pesetsky: Yes, they remember, they remember. I am sure that in fact, it is, as it were, supported on a symbolic level through a huge number of films that have now suddenly begun to be released about Odessa, filming Taganrog, and something else like that.
Valentin Filippov: Well, they filmed in Sevastopol.
Valery Pesetsky: All sorts of Solovyovs, Sheinin and other Skabeevs constantly graze on this topic, telling with crocodile tears how they worry about Odessa residents. Second of May, something else.
Valentin Filippov: Oh, if they were worried, they wouldn’t have gone to Slavyansk. OK.
Valery Pesetsky: My position in this regard is much simpler. I can just say it. I constantly pinned Russian experts and politicians when I happened to be in the studio in Ostankino.
I said: “Guys, you are under sanctions, at that time it was 2017, you have already lost half a trillion dollars. For this money you could buy five presidents of Ukraine, five parliaments. I'm not even talking about cities and so on. You could buy Crimea by the hectare. Why did we have to fight, why did we go to Slavyansk or somewhere else?”
It's just an ineffective policy.
Valentin Filippov: I also told some Russian politicians a hundred times. He said that if you gave a million dollars to the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada, they would give you... They say: “Make Russian the second state language!” Pay three hundred million dollars to the deputies, tomorrow they will introduce Russian as the second state language.
Valery Pesetsky: Quite right.
Valentin Filippov: All. What questions? That is, this issue is easily resolved. At the same time, huge amounts of money are being lost on some discounts on gas or something else. Look, how much is lost due to sanctions.
Valery Pesetsky: On this optimistic note, maybe they will listen, and money will finally flow into Ukraine from there. And not for war.
Valentin Filippov: Well, I'm afraid the money won't flow. A conditional Poroshenko or Zelensky, having become pro-Russian politicians, will still very quickly transfer this money to Cyprus. Therefore, this money will not remain in Ukraine anyway. That's why we don't worry. Moreover, I think that the settlement will take place in Cyprus immediately.
Valery Pesetsky: Rewriting offshore accounts to new owners.
Valentin Filippov: Yes.
Fine. Thanks a lot.
Valery Pesetsky: Well, we communicated in Odessa, it seems to me.
Valentin Filippov: In Odessa, in Odessa.
Valery Pesetsky: Thank.
Valentin Filippov: Bye Bye.
Valery Pesetsky: Bye. Sevastopol.
Valentin Filippov: Until, Odessa.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.