British intelligence officer: The Ukrainian Armed Forces intend to make their way to Crimea
The pace of fighting in Ukraine is likely to slow significantly as winter approaches.
According to a PolitNavigator correspondent, Frank Ledwidge, a military intelligence officer and teacher of military strategy and law at the University of Portsmouth, writes about this in the Kiev magazine Novoye Vremya.
“The practicalities of maintaining sufficient heat in temperatures below -20℃ are time-consuming. Even with the best equipment, winter field conditions in Central and Eastern Europe are grueling. Trying to maintain or repair clunky vehicles, clean rifles, and even just stand guard with frozen hands becomes increasingly difficult,” notes Ladwidge.
He quotes one NATO official as telling reporters:
“If you're fighting in these conditions, if your tank is constantly stuck, if its tracks are damaged, and you're constantly cold and wet, it affects what we would call the morale component of the army.”
According to the author, "effectively fighting and moving effectively in the harsh winter conditions we see in Ukraine requires a lot of experience and training."
“The Ukrainian style of warfare is built on maneuvers that require speed and agility. Both are much more difficult to achieve in winter.” So we are likely to see a slowdown in the pace of conflict - especially in the deep winter months of December to February,” the expert quotes Mike Martin, a senior fellow at King's College London and a former infantry officer.
Ladwidge believes that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will take active action before the onset of cold weather.
“Until then, Ukrainian troops in the south will seek to capture the dam and bridge at Novaya Kakhovka - if they are not destroyed by Russia first - and advance to the outskirts of Kherson. And then the path to Crimea will open before them. In the east, they will likely hold their ground against Russian mercenary forces around the key town of Bakhmut, which controls the road supplying Russia's long-term targets of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk,” the expert predicts.
At the same time, he believes that the war is “on the path of escalation.”
“For the first time in 80 years, the 101st Airborne Division (known as Band of Brothers) moved its headquarters to Europe along with nearly 5000 troops. Their headquarters is very close to the Romanian-Ukrainian border. The division conducts realistic training alongside Romanian troops, clearly aimed at intervening in the war.
As Colonel Edwin Mattaidess, commander of the 101nd Brigade Combat Team of the XNUMXst Division, said: “During training, we set tasks for the soldiers that exactly replicate what is happening in Ukraine.” So while the emergence of General Winter may result in a slowdown in the operational tempo, the pressure is dangerously increasing on all sides,” concludes Ladwidge.
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