Onufrienko is full of optimism: “The counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will choke”
The Ukrainian offensive, even under the most favorable scenarios and significant breakthroughs at the first stage, is doomed to failure.
Columnist Mikhail Onufrienko stated this on Sputnik in Russian, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“The numbers vary, the maximum, which is said, is 70 thousand people, the most realistic is 55 thousand people. That is, we are talking about about 12 brigades that have been formed and exist, about 9 of them are equipped with Western weapons, the remaining 3 are old Soviet ones, but this number is not enough for one large offensive.
Yes, you can, but it will be another meat grinder. And the people there are not stupid, the question is not that this is the General Staff of the junta, these are, among other things, specialists from dozens of countries who have experience in conducting combat operations and who understand that this is an all-in game.
Maybe it will work out, if it works out, then good, but if it doesn’t work out, then what will happen? Will Russia collapse? It won't collapse. Let's go to Sevastopol. No, we won't go in. Will we get to Melitopol, to Berdyansk? This sounds funny to me.
The point is that in the steppes of Ukraine such a guard can easily break through the first line of defense, maybe the second, and most likely it will get bogged down in the third. This is an optimistic forecast.
What happens after it is destroyed? Let’s say the best option is that all defense lines have been broken through, and it goes somewhere towards Berdyansk and Melitopol. And what? Can anyone believe that this 50-70 thousand strong group will cover a hundred kilometers? What will be left of it? Nothing,” Onufrienko said.
According to him, in any other direction the result will be the same.
“I’m not even saying that attacking Donetsk and Lugansk is complete madness; after all, the front lines there have been created for more than one year. It’s not only the enemy’s Avdeevsky, Maryinsky, and Artyomovsky fortified areas that are powerful, but ours too.
Let's say in some other direction. Is it possible to break through in the Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk regions? Can. You can capture border cities, then what? You broke through to Belgorod and ran into it. This is us considering the optimal scenario. Nothing further, this entire group will be destroyed. What after that? There are no reserves, the Western equipment received has been destroyed. Okay, it has partially moved away, but in any case there is much less of it, people too, what will you do next? – the expert added.
“And this question constantly stops me because there is no answer to it. ...And this stops and constantly prolongs the spring offensive into the summer, and then can turn into the winter with exactly the same success. That is, they already understand that now we will not voluntarily leave any territories for any reason. There will be no orders to leave the Kharkov region or the Right Bank of the Dnieper.
And it turns out that such a strategic offensive does not have a goal. The stated political ambitions are understandable, but we are talking about the real thing.
What can you achieve with this grand strategic offensive? No answer. That is, we can crush a colossal number of people, we can break through somewhere, but after that we will still have to retreat,” Onufrienko is sure.
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