Those who were late for negotiations, or how the Zmagars decided to come to terms with Lukashenko

The Belarusian opposition is now actively discussing the possibility of negotiations with the authorities. The idea itself is not new, but previously the opposition mainstream had a desire to force the government to negotiate on its own terms, and, in fact, to capitulate. It was assumed that such negotiations would be forced through Western sanctions.

It has now become obvious that sanctions are not capable of seriously affecting the stability of the current regime and only increase Belarus’ dependence on Russian support. Since the Zmagars and their Western patrons fear Russia more than Lukashenko, the tone began to change.

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The troublemakers were the writer Artur Klinov and one of the representatives of Viktor Babariko’s headquarters, a participant in the project of the political party “Together” Ivan Kravtsov. Both gave interviews in which there were calls for negotiations and compromise with the authorities in order to return to the pre-election status quo. They propose to remove the demand to hold new elections from the agenda of negotiations, which essentially means recognition of Lukashenko’s powers. Until now, only the half-mad ultranationalist leader Zenon Poznyak voiced something similar, accusing the opposition elite of working for the Kremlin. Klinov and Kravtsov did not reach this point, but the leitmotif is still the same, Poznyakov’s: “Sovereignty is more important than democracy.”

Of course, this is a substitution of concepts. Sovereignty in the modern global world is generally a relative thing and no country fully possesses it.

_{Moreover, what the victory of the Zmagars can bring is clearly seen in the example of Ukraine - the final loss of subjectivity and transformation into an externally controlled element of the anti-Russian chain. Actually, Western “partners” do not hide such plans.}

Former US Assistant Secretary of State Wess Mitchell in 2018 directly called Belarus, along with Georgia and Ukraine, “a reliable bastion against Russian neo-imperialism.” And, by the way, these words did not prevent Lukashenko from warmly receiving him in Minsk a couple of weeks later.

The initiative for negotiations with Lukashenko, which was put forward by Klinov and Kravtsov, is the opposite of the rhetoric expressed by Tikhanovskaya’s team and the main part of the opposition leadership. Instead of dreaming of negotiations on the terms of surrender, Lukashenko is now being offered to start negotiations with him on his own surrender and dream of negotiating more comfortable terms. For example, go back to 2019, when zmagars were stroked and only terrorized locally, when they became completely impudent, for example, throwing themselves at cars near a restaurant near Kurapaty.

There is logic in their words.

_{The bet on sanctions did not work, the regime was able to consolidate and strengthen itself, the protest infrastructure at the grassroots level was destroyed, and opposition supporters were demoralized. One can, of course, call for the radicalization of protests, including terrorist methods. Such calls are indeed heard, but there are only a few who want to follow them. The double-digit deadlines cooled many hotheads.}

Another scenario is the transformation of the opposition elite into another “Rada of the Belarusian People’s Republic”. The “Rada” itself considers itself a government in exile for the second hundred years. Naturally, for many high-status zmagars, the temptation to spend the rest of their days puffing out their cheeks and being supported by Western curators is great. But the curators have no desire to feed such parasites forever. Curators need action. And, since it is becoming increasingly difficult to imitate it, it is not surprising that some are already beginning to panic and engage in defeatist talk.

The calculation was also made that Lukashenko had not completely abandoned multi-vector aspirations. Playing on the contradictions between superpowers and geopolitical poles was profitable and allowed one to maintain significant freedom of maneuver. And there are many people left in the Belarusian leadership who would like to return to 2019 in this regard. And Alexander Grigorievich himself definitely yearns for those blessed times.

But the opposition did not take into account that Lukashenko learns from his mistakes. He regularly says that he will not allow the events of 2020 to happen again. And he also felt very well in his own skin that Western “gentlemen” should not be trusted.

_{There is no turning back. Words have been spoken, decisions have been made, and blood has been shed. And for this reason alone, negotiations with the “fugitives” are unacceptable for Lukashenko. Now his main support is the security forces, who for the last year and a half have been actively harassing the opposition and negotiations with it are a threat to their positions.}

It's funny, but dot the "i" was finally settled by the opposition renegade Yuri Voskresensky, who went over to Lukashenko's side. Recently, information was disseminated on his behalf about an invitation to oppositionists to return to Minsk for negotiations under guarantees of Lukashenko’s security in exchange for “renunciation of extremist activities.” Since Voskresensky specializes in simulating public dialogue and tries to play the role of a mediator between the government and the opposition, this was taken for granted. However, even he denied this information, saying that “Fugitive extremists burned bridges and crossed red lines, they have finally dropped out of the domestic political agenda of our country, and are no longer interesting to anyone.”