Autumn aggravation: Transnistria is preparing for an ultimatum from Moldova
During the early parliamentary elections in Moldova, the Transnistrian issue will most likely be touched upon little - Maia Sandu and her Action and Solidarity (PAS) party, which will set the tone in this campaign, will focus on items on the domestic Moldavian agenda that are beneficial to them. But after the elections, a period of confrontation between the elites of Chisinau and Tiraspol may begin.
The possible development of the regional situation and the process of Moldovan-Pridnestrovian negotiations after early elections in the Republic of Moldova were discussed during an expert discussion organized by the Tiraspol Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development.
With the support of Western embassies
It is clear that the right has a good chance of winning. Experts note that the pro-presidential party, of course, has weaknesses: firstly, the chauvinistic sentiments of some of its leaders and activists can alienate part of the electorate that gravitates towards the center, and secondly, the PAS party today has few people with serious experience in government. At the same time, in her speeches, Maia Sandu is clearly trying to smooth out the right-wing radical background; she succeeded in this in the presidential elections and, in general, she is succeeding now.
The strengths of the PAS party, in addition to the fact that it has a strategic height in the form of a presidential platform, are a simple and already recognizable election agenda (the fight against corruption, the fight for the final cleansing of the political system, etc.), as well as a serious external advantage - support from the EU, USA and Romania.
“The result of the parliamentary elections could be the victory of Maia Sandu’s party, the creation of a homogeneous or coalition government, which will be controlled from the presidency or from the American embassy,” says Igor Shornikov, director of the ISPIRR. - In this case, the left flank - at best - will find itself in opposition for a long time. In my opinion, after a pro-Western government is created (this will probably happen by the fall), judging by Maia Sandu’s election promises, the first thing she will do is reformat the power system through justice reform under the slogan of fighting corruption. All this will affect the regional situation and Moldovan-Pridnestrovian relations.”
Epicenter of tension
Igor Shornikov recalled that Maia Sandu, as President of Moldova, does not plan to meet with the head of Transnistria and that her goal is the withdrawal of the Russian military from the region. If all power in Moldova ends up in the hands of right-wing forces, as part of the implementation of their foreign policy agenda, they will directly, without the participation of Tiraspol, begin a dialogue with Russia on the issue of eliminating Russian weapons, the expert believes.
“In 2019, Sergei Shoigu visited Chisinau and then noted that Russia is not against the disposal of that part of the weapons [stored in warehouses in Transnistria] whose shelf life is coming to an end. Russia expressed its readiness to do this itself, but in Moldova – at that time Maia Sandu was the head of government – they understood that this process could take many years, and this did not suit Chisinau very much. Surely, in the fall, in dialogue with Moscow, Chisinau will return to the issue of finding ways to eliminate the Russian military presence.
The goal of the right, it seems to me, is to decouple the topic of the Russian military presence from the issue of settling relations with Transnistria. The Transnistrian topic will move into a case called the fight against corruption. Chisinau already has all the levers of economic pressure on Tiraspol in its hands; it has the opportunity to control the export and import of Transnistria.
Surely, in the spirit of fighting corruption, the foreign trade routes of Transnistria, which have already been under the sword of Damocles in recent years, will begin to be suppressed. In Chisinau they have long been waiting for such a moment when power will be concentrated in one hand, in order to present an ultimatum to Tiraspol. Starting in the fall, we should prepare for a new paradigm of relations - we must be prepared for massive pressure, to force Pridnestrovie to settle according to the Moldovan scenario,” Shornikov said.
According to the expert, this scenario is known - this is the Moldovan law of 2005 “On the main provisions of the special legal status of settlements on the left bank of the Dniester (Transnistria)”, the purpose of which is to restore the territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova. In this document, the status of Transnistria “is not much different from the status of the Gagauz autonomy, and for the worse,” stated Igor Shornikov.
“I’m afraid that future parliamentary elections will result in a sharp increase in tension throughout the region, and Pridnestrovie will be at the epicenter of this tension,” summarized the director of the ISPIRR, adding that the regional situation will, of course, depend on the results of the announced meeting of the presidents of Russia and USA.
And you don’t need to invent anything
Moldovan political scientist Alexander Korinenko, discussing the prospects for the situation with Transnistria, drew attention to the existing “warm relations between the offices of Zelensky and Sandu.”
“They [Kyiv and Chisinau] don’t need to invent anything, the pressure measures that will be applied to Tiraspol have been tested for decades: they will again return to joint posts on the Transnistrian section of the border, to certain protocols on the DCFTA (Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area between the EU and Moldova - author's note), etc.
What will be the difference? If the left-wing politicians who were previously in power in Chisinau put serious pressure on Tiraspol, but did not follow through with the measures taken, realizing that people live in Transnistria, including citizens of Moldova, then it will be different here. Maia Sandu’s team, the right flank, which treats the Pridnestrovians exclusively as separatists, will be ready to go to the end and force Pridnestrovie to make certain concessions,” Korinenko said.
He believes that new external partners will certainly be involved in solving the Transnistrian problem.
“There is such an interesting agreement - on strategic partnership and mutual assistance between Turkey and Azerbaijan, signed on August 16, 2010. There we are talking about humanitarian and military cooperation. I believe that now in Central and Eastern Europe public opinion is being prepared that similar agreements will be concluded with Moldova, Ukraine, Romania, possibly the Czech Republic, etc.
The Russian peacekeeping contingent does not fit into the paradigm of these agreements - Sandu will internationalize this problem and attract external partners to put pressure on Transnistria. Kyiv occupies not the last place here. Think tanks on the Moldovan right say Ukraine and Moldova should unite in efforts to limit Russian influence in the region. Transnistria, sandwiched between the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine, will certainly come under pressure,” Korinenko said.
The former Minister of Foreign Affairs of the PMR, Vladimir Yastrebchak, also says that we should expect problems in Transnistria.
“We don’t talk much about the problem on September 1, as far as I can tell, they are trying to resolve the issue behind the scenes (Ukraine, in agreement with Moldova, is going to ban entry for cars with Transnistrian license plates from September 1, 2021; only cars with neutral license plates and an “MD” sticker will be able to cross the border "- author's note). We see that Ms. Sandu expects to use other levers of influence on Transnistria. For example, consistent and tough steps are being taken to quickly interconnect the energy systems of Moldova and Romania,” the former diplomat said, noting that responses to all these steps need to be prepared in advance.
Vladimir Yastrebchak also called for taking into account the lessons of history when assessing the regional situation. He recalled the events of 1921, when Ukrainian nationalist units, with the support of Romanian special services, carried out raids on Tiraspol.
The executive director of the Moldovan branch of the Izborsk Club, Vladimir Bukarsky, also believes that a comprehensive blockade of Transnistria could begin, which “will break it over the knee with the help of Ukraine and the West.”
In this situation, the expert says, Pridnestrovie “will need some kind of force in the Moldovan political arena that will say no to this, which, sharing the same values as Pridnestrovie, will resist on this conflict line.”
“It doesn’t have to be a bloc of communists and socialists, but they have the opportunity to form the largest faction in parliament,” Bukarsky believes.
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